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EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8-24-2011
Aug 24, 2011
Grains finished lower today after a small range. December corn finished a ½ cent lower at $7.43, December wheat 7 ¼ cents lower at $7.77 ¼, and November soybeans down 3 ¾ cents at $13.93 ½.
Today there was not much for fundamental changes to go off of besides more crop variability coming out of the Pro Farmer crop tour. The Indiana yield estimates were considered "bullish." They will release the IL and IA numbers tonight.
Outside markets were very mixed with the Dow Jones sharply higher but gold having the largest drop since 2008, down over $100.
November soybeans came up against resistance again hitting a day high of $14.03 ¼ before coming well off the highs. The contract high remains intact at $14.11 ¼.
Export sales will be released tomorrow and are as follows (in 1000’s of MTs)
With so much supply uncertainty this market seems to want to remain supported and we may see soybeans make the next move higher if we don’t see some adequate rains soon in the problem areas of the Midwest. As we can see by the chart below, soybeans have been stuck in a trading range since the early part of this year and we are right at previous resistance points. If we can push through contract highs at $14.11 ¼, we may see this rally extend on technical buying.
We also have the Jackson Hole summit where we can expect Fed Chairman Bernanke to speak about Fed policy. Last year at this time he announced QE2 at the end of the week. This year the market is speculating that he could announce a third round of quantitative easing during his speech. We will have to wait to find out.
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