Apr 17, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

Traders Short-Cover Ahead of The Weekend

Jun 07, 2013

Subscribe to Expanded Newsletter

New crop corn and soybeans closed with double digit gains on Friday as many traders covered shorts ahead of the weekend.  Bear-spreading was very prevalent in both corn and soybeans before and during the Goldman Roll today.

Many longs are rolling up to the new crop contracts for timing reasons as well as concerns of lower 2013 corn and soybean production.  Our thoughts remain the same, we believe there will be some acres lost to prevent plant and some switched to soybeans but even if we lose a few million acres of corn there is still a chance for a large decline in price when it is all said and done.  In short our reasoning is based on demand and yield.  We have had three poor growing years in a row and demand has suffered.  In our opinion, the USDA’s feed demand estimate was well overstated on the last monthly Supply and Demand report in May.  By overstated we are about 700 million bushels apart. Probably the only reason the USDA used that demand number is because they were looking at such a large supply they had to offset in a reasonable manner.  Their next report will be released next Wednesday, June 12th.  We have not yet seen the average analyst estimates polled by Reuters or Dow Jones but it will be interesting to see how much yield and acreage each firm decides to use.  These price surges have left the shorts rather skittish from taking on the risk without knowing more about the crop development. If crop conditions come in fair on Monday it could be a very different story.  We will have to see what they say on Monday afternoon at 3pm CST.   Have a great weekend!

July Corn:  Touched the 100 day moving average and filled most of the gap but couldn’t get back to $6.76.

July Corn

November Soybeans: Closed at fresh highs for the move.  Not much in the way of technical resistance between here and $13.50.

November Beans

 
EHedger  |  866.433.4371
Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.
EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may not place an order to buy or sell commodity futures contract by e-mail. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. EHedger LLC will not disclose anyone's position due to their confidential and proprietary nature. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold EHedger LLC harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information. The contents of this e-mail message and any attachments are intended solely for EHedger LLC's customers and brokers. This communication is intended to be and to remain confidential. Any duplication or distribution without the express written consent of EHedger LLC and this disclaimer is prohibited. If you are not an intended recipient of this message or if this message has been addressed to you in error, immediately alert the sender by reply e-mail and delete this message, its attachments, and any related messages from your computer and destroy any hard copies. If you are not an intended recipient or this message has been addressed to you in error, you are prohibited from delivering, distributing, disclosing, printing, copying, or relying on this message and/or any attachments. Opinions are solely those of the author and subject to change at any time, and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or commodity options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions