Farmland Forecast

Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its weekly crop progress report. Progress in soybean planting is wrapping up across the 18 primary producing states. During the last week, 4% of the entire soybean crop was planted; bringing the total planted crop at 97%, which is equivalent to the 5 year historical average in similar time periods. The 2009 estimate at this week was 95%.

The condition of the corn crop again fell slightly over the past week. The USDA estimated 73% of the corn crop is in good or excellent condition, while 8% is in poor or very poor condition. Last week 75% was in good or excellent condition while only 7% was in poor or very poor condition. During this week in 2009, 72% of the crop was in good or excellent condition and 7% was in poor or very poor condition. This week, 7% of the corn crop is silking, according to USDA estimates, while only 4% was last year by this week and 5% in 2009.

Of the 18 primary soybean producing states, 93% of the soybeans have emerged. The 5 year historical average is also 93%. By this week last year, only 87% of the soybean crop had emerged. This week soybeans again worsened slightly in condition. 9% of the soybean crop was in poor or very poor condition while 67% was in good or excellent condition. Last week only 8% was in poor or very poor condition and 69% of the crop was in good or excellent condition. The USDA included an estimate of soybean blooming this week as well. 9% of the crop is blooming, while the estimate for this week in 2009 was 8%.

The winter and spring wheat crops are still in good condition, compared to last year’s crop. In the 18 primary producing states of winter wheat, 64% of the crop is in good or excellent condition while only 10% is in poor or very poor condition. Last year, 45% of the crop was in the good or excellent condition and 28% was in poor or very poor condition. In the 6 primary producing states of spring wheat, 84% of the crop is in good or excellent condition this year compared to only 76% last year. This year 2% of the spring wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition while 6% was last year.

Corn prices decreased 4.7% over the past week ending at $3.44 per bushel and soybeans were also down 3.6% to $9.57 per bushel. Year-over-year corn prices are down 11.6% and soybeans are off 25.5%. We will be watching for the USDA Planted Acres report on Wednesday to see if grain prices will react positively.