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John Block Reports from Washington

RSS By: John Block,

John Block has dedicated his professional career to the fields of agriculture, food and health.

My Policy Predictions for 2012

Feb 17, 2012

Just step back and look at the U.S. and the world. What a mess! Everywhere you look, there is another serious problem. It’s U.S. debt! It’s European debt! Will there be war in the Middle East – Israel and Iran? Serious disagreements on U.S. government policy persist. What about North Korea and Iran’s race to create a nuclear weapon? The future is about as uncertain as it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union.
So, with that backdrop, I want to review my predictions made last year and give some for this year.
Last year, I said –
  1.  We will get a U.S.-South Korean trade agreement passed. We did and also passed one with Colombia and Panama.
  2. The farm bill would not be written in 2011. It wasn’t.
  3. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood would fix our trucking-trade dispute with Mexico. He got it done.
  4. Pressure to produce more grain would push the Administration to release some of our conservation reserve acres to go back into production. Didn’t happen. But the strong grain prices have discouraged sign-up for the reserve and, therefore, we do have more acres to plant this year.

Now for 2012 predictions –

  1. The Congress will pass a farm bill this year but not until after the fall election – perhaps in a "lame duck" session. Agriculture spending will be on the "chopping block." Not the nutrition programs.
  2. The ethanol "fuel mandate" will survive. We have critics but they won’t win. Not this year. The gallons of ethanol produced will depend more on the price of oil than anything else.
  3. Our livestock industry will continue to face headwinds. The Humane Society wants to tell us how to raise our pigs and calves and chickens. They have enough allies in the public that our customers are applying pressure. McDonald’s is telling us to get rid of our gestation crates. We should stand our ground, but we’re not going to win. And don’t forget the government’s long list of regulations that give us problems.
  4. I predict that Romney will, in the end, be the Republican nominee. I expect it to be a very close Presidential election, and it could go either way. I say Romney will be our next President, but I’m not going to "bet the farm" on it.
  5. Republicans will retain control of the House and also gain 4 or more seats in the Senate. Harry Reid will be Leader no more.
  6. Finally, this will be another good year for the agriculture industry – from the farmer-rancher through the whole food chain.
In spite of the global uncertainty, let’s take it on.
In closing, I would encourage you to access my website which archives my radio commentaries dating back 10 years and will go back 20 years when complete. Check on what I said back then. Go to
Until next week, I am John Block in Washington.


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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

Will K - KS
The only issue I can take with your predictions is on the election. Mitt Romney is having real trouble convincing republicans to vote for him. In the last 100 years only 4 sitting presidents, who won their first term have failed to win a second term. 2 Taft and Bush1 faced significant third party opposition. Only Hoover and carter lost 2 man races, both faced unpresidented obstacles. Hoover the great depression, Carter the Iran hostage crisis and the failed rescue mission. Barrack Obama may not be very good at being president, but as we saw in 2008 he's very good at running for president. It would take some kind of a game changer to deny him a second term.
6:28 PM Feb 17th
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