Sep 19, 2014
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February 2014 Archive for Market Watch

RSS By: Alan Brugler, AgWeb.com

Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor.

Riding the Roller Coaster

Feb 28, 2014

Brugler 

Market Watch with Alan Brugler and Ryan Palmer

February 28, 2014

Riding the Roller Coaster

 

The first part of a roller-coaster is arguably the most boring part of being on one… click, click, click, click, click, click, click… notching higher and higher while the excitement builds.  Then… here we go… "WhooooHooooo!"  Then "Whooooaaaa!" and "Whoops, lookout!!!!" or "I want to get off!".  "Oh wait, I like it….  AHHHHHH, it’s over?!?! I want to go again…."  It’s probably easy to see where I am going with this, just look at the charts this week.  The cattle market climbed higher all week, but lost some significant ground on the expiration of the front month contract.  March feeders started the week lower, then put in new highs before ending the week with two down days.  Lean hogs hesitated on Wednesday, but made new highs on Thursday and Friday with the April hogs limit up on two days.  March Corn futures tried to go lower on Monday, traded at new highs for the move on Wednesday, then followed the bean bears lower on Thursday before posting a 9.5 cent rally late on Friday.  The soybeans… well the soybeans had quite an unusual week; lots of bears jumped off the roller coaster on Thursday as it appeared to be headed for trouble, but the buying came back strong with a weaker dollar on Friday.       

 

Corn futures gained 4 cents for the week, and the March contract notched a new high close for the move. Ethanol production was up from last week, and stocks were smaller.  Weekly corn export sales were larger than last week 853,097 MT of the 2013/14 crop. USDA shows that 89% of the projected corn sales for the year are already on the books. We would typically only be 71% by now. The largest commitment in recent years has been 81%.  The CFTC Commitment of Traders report tonight showed managed money added 42,264 contracts to their net long position in corn last week, giving them a net long position of 87,516 contracts.  This is the largest net long position in corn for speculators since June 4, 2013.

 

Soybean futures were up 3.17% this week, with soybean meal gaining 2.65%.  Concerns about the Brazilian crop helped bring some support to the US market this week.  Back on Tuesday morning, the USDA reported old crop export sales of more than half a million metric tonnes to China under the daily reporting system.  This was a relief to the bulls who had been leery of potential Chinese cancelations.  Weekly US soybean export sales were more than 642K MT this week, with China in for 287,800 MT of old crop and 232,500 MT of new crop. Total US export Commitments for 2013/14 are now at 106% of the USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average for this point in the marketing year would be 88%.  The bears thought they had won after a spike above nearby technical objectives took the market back down to the bottom of a 60 cent trading range on the day.  Panic selling ensued for the rest of the Thursday session, but the bulls took back more than 20 cents in the front two contracts today with some help from the dollar getting down below the low-levels posted last October.  As of the close on this past Tuesday, CFTC shows managed money accounts increased their net long position for soybeans from the previous week by 7,504 contracts bringing their overall net long position to 202,996 contracts. This is the largest net long position in soybeans for MM since Sept 18, 2012.

Wheat futures were lower in KC and Chicago contracts, but posted a nearly 1% gain in MPLS this week.  Chicago was down 11 cents or 1.76%.  KC wheat lost 6 cents or .84% this week. MPLS March futures were 6 cents higher on the week, gaining nearly 1%. Weekly wheat export sales reported this week were higher than last week at 564,900 MT. Export commitments are 88% of the USDA forecast for the year, vs. the 5 year average of 90%.  Unrest and uncertainty  in the Ukraine has spurred some fears with regard to the reliability of wheat and corn exports out of the region.  That element, along with the sharply lower dollar helped the wheat market recover much of the ground it had lost earlier in the week.  All three exchanges gained about 15 cents in the March contracts today.  As of the close on last Tuesday, managed money accounts decreased their short position in CBT wheat from the previous week by 14,091 contracts bringing their overall net short position to 20,311 contracts. 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

02/07/14

02/14/14

02/21/14

02/28/14

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.44

$4.45

$4.53

$4.58

$0.04

0.99%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$5.78

$5.99

$6.10

$5.99

($0.11)

-1.76%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$6.49

$6.75

$6.83

$6.77

($0.06)

-0.84%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$6.39

$6.67

$6.64

$6.71

$0.06

0.98%

Mar

Soybeans

$13.32

$13.38

$13.71

$14.14

$0.44

3.17%

Mar

Soybean Meal

$446.40

$450.00

$455.80

$467.90

$12.10

2.65%

Mar

Soybean Oil

$38.56

$39.15

$40.95

$41.52

$0.57

1.39%

Feb

Live Cattle

$141.20

$142.60

$144.55

$151.95

$7.40

5.12%

Mar

Feeder Cattle

$167.80

$170.48

$170.70

$171.70

$1.00

0.59%

April

Lean Hogs

$94.72

$96.22

$99.35

$106.85

$7.50

7.55%

Mar

Cotton

$87.47

$87.55

$87.09

$86.59

($0.50)

-0.57%

Mar

Oats

$4.37

$4.22

$4.66

$5.11

$0.45

9.67%

Mar

Rice

$15.34

$15.59

$15.72

$15.38

($0.34)

-2.16%

Cotton futures lost another 0.57% this week.  The May contract posted a 432 point range on the week, trading at its highest level since March 2012.  US Export commitments improved to 90% of the USDA forecast for the year. This compares to 85% for this point last year, and the 5 year average of 89%. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position by 5,247 contracts bringing their current overall net long position to 53,202 contracts.

Cattle futures were up a huge 5.12% this week, or $7.40 per cwt.  The Feb contract tapped $153.00 before settling at $151.95 on expiration.  The April contract closed at a nearly $7 discount to February as it takes over as lead month on Monday.  Cash cattle trade averaged mostly $150 in the five-area report, with tops at $152.50 on Thursday.  Dressed sales were mostly reported at $240. Wholesale prices were strong towards the end of the week.  Choice boxes gained 5.5%, and Select boxes were 5.8% higher than last Friday. Weekly estimated slaughter at 567,000 head was up 3,000 head from the same period a year ago. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in live cattle by 1,115 contracts bringing their overall net long position to 128,324 contracts. 

 

Hog futures were up 7.55% this week in the front month, posting new life of contract highs in the front months.  April lean hogs closed limit-up for the last two days in a row. Estimated weekly slaughter was 2.169 million head, up slightly from a year ago when it was reported at 2.162 million head for the same period last week. The pork carcass cutout gained 7.22% from Friday to Friday.  The loin cutout was up 8.75% and bellies were up 12.39%.  USDA weekly export sales for pork were 12,875 MT.  News of Russia looking to get back into the US pork market in March added some support to the market.  The managed money accounts (per CFTC) increased their net long position by 5,744 contracts bringing their total net long position to 65,506 contracts.

 

 Market Watch

 

We’ll start the week looking for new, first of the month money flows into commodities from the spec fund investors. Will they add to winning positions from February, or cash out and go back to the stock market. USDA will report weekly export inspections on Monday morning, and weekly Export Sales on Thursday. Friday will be the last trading day for March cotton, and also mark the expiration of March live cattle options.  Daylight savings time will begin on Saturday, March 8.

 

 http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

 

Copyright 2014 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

The Bulls Have Traction

Feb 21, 2014

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

The Bulls Have Traction

February 21, 2014

 Corn futures gained 8 cents for the week, and are up 19 cents in three weeks. Ethanol imports were zero for the 20th week in a row. US weekly ethanol stocks rose to 17.2 million barrels, with some Midwest stocks buildup due to the inability to retrieve empty railcars from the East Coast. Weekly corn export sales were smaller at 691,400 MT, but well above the average pace needed to meet the USDA forecast for the year. USDA shows that 87% of the projected corn sales for the year are already on the books. We would typically only be 69% by now. The largest commitment in recent years has been 80%. At the Outlook Forum, USDA projected 2014 corn plantings at 92 million acres, with the average cash price dropping to $3.90.  They are using a national average yield of 165.3 bpa, a new record.

Soybean futures were up 2.5% this week, with soybean meal up 1.3%.  Weekly US soybean export sales improved to 835,400 MT including 86,300 MT of old crop. Total US export Commitments for 2013/14 are now at 105% of the USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average would be 87%. At the Outlook Forum, USDA projected 79 million acres would be planted to soybeans this year, with a record yield expected to drive the national average cash price below $10.

Wheat futures were up another 1.9% in Chicago and 1.2% in KC this week. MPLS March futures had a double digit sell off on Friday that tipped them into the red for the week. Weekly wheat export sales on Friday morning were 491,500 MT, which was down from the prior week. Export commitments are 87% of the USDA forecast for the year, vs. the 5 year average of 88%.  The Commitment of Traders report shows the large managed money specs are net long KC wheat and reduced their short in Chicago by another 8,823 contracts last week. They were still short 34,402 contracts in Chicago as of Feb 18.

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

01/31/14

02/07/14

02/14/14

02/21/14

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.34

$4.44

$4.45

$4.53

$0.08

1.74%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$5.56

$5.78

$5.99

$6.10

$0.11

1.88%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$6.16

$6.49

$6.75

$6.83

$0.08

1.22%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$6.04

$6.39

$6.67

$6.64

($0.02)

-0.34%

Mar

Soybeans

$12.83

$13.32

$13.38

$13.71

$0.33

2.49%

Mar

Soybean Meal

$426.10

$446.40

$450.00

$455.80

$5.80

1.29%

Mar

Soybean Oil

$37.64

$38.56

$39.15

$40.95

$1.80

4.60%

Feb

Live Cattle

$141.68

$141.20

$142.60

$144.55

$1.95

1.37%

Mar

Feeder Cattle

$169.43

$167.80

$170.48

$170.70

$0.23

0.13%

April

Lean Hogs

$94.80

$94.72

$96.22

$99.35

$3.13

3.25%

Mar

Cotton

$85.83

$87.47

$87.55

$87.09

($0.46)

-0.53%

Mar

Oats

$4.06

$4.37

$4.22

$4.66

$0.44

10.37%

Mar

Rice

$15.40

$15.34

$15.59

$15.72

$0.13

0.83%

 

Cotton futures pulled back 0.53% this week. Global ending stocks are still projected to be record large at more than 96 million bales. US old crop ending stocks are still seen at 3 million bales. US Export commitments improved to 89% of the USDA forecast for the year. This compares to 82% for this point last year, and the 5 year average of 85%. The National Cotton Council survey projected 11.26 million acres to be planted in 2014, up from 10.41 million in 2013. USDA used11.5 million acres in their forecast at the Outlook Forum in DC, up 10.5% from last year.

Cattle futures were up 1.4% this week, or $1.95 per cwt. Cash cattle traded at $145 on Friday. Wholesale prices were lower on Friday. Weekly estimated slaughter at 539,000 head was down from 568,000 a year ago for this week. Beef production was up 0.3% for the week and down 4.3% vs. year ago. YTD production is down 8%. The USDA Cattle on Feed report on Friday afternoon showed larger than expected placements (108.6%) and smaller than expected marketings (94.5%), resulting in Feb 1 numbers at 97.2% of year ago.  Beef in cold storage January 31 was down 12.88% from year ago.

Hog futures were up 3.25% this week in the front month, getting a very modest assist from beef prices Estimated weekly slaughter totaled 2.134 million head, up from 2.113 million last week. The PED virus is showing an impact, but breeding herd expansion is also underway and the spring run is building. Estimated carcass weights are still running about 6 pounds above year ago. Pork production year to date is up 0.1% from last year. The pork carcass cutout value was up $.35 on Friday to $98.03. USDA weekly export sales for pork were a solid 16,600 MT.

 Market Watch

Livestock traders will begin the week reacting to the USDA Cattle on Feed report from Friday night, as well as the Cold Storage report. Grain traders will be shedding positions acquired as part of options expiration and exercises on Friday. The USDA weekly Export Inspections report will be out on Monday, along with a handful of state crop condition ratings. Weekly Export Sales will be on Thursday. Friday will market first notice day for March grain futures deliveries, and expiration of the February Live Cattle contract.

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

Copyright 2014 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Seeing Green

Feb 14, 2014

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

February 14, 2014

Seeing Green 

Spring still isn’t here, but a spell of warmer weather is being welcomed by most of the US, and the commodity markets are showing signs of thawing. The CRB Index has been rallying since the January crop report, and hasn’t even been slowed by a simultaneous rally in the US equity markets over the past 8 trading sessions. A weaker US dollar is clearly a part of that equation, lifting commodities priced in dollar terms. Global growth may also be in the background. While industrial production and other US numbers show slow activity over the Nov-Jan period, most of that appears to be tied to bad weather. Demand for commodities such as corn and soybeans has been stellar in the global export market at these lower 2014 prices. 

Corn futures eked out a 0.23% gain for the week, and are up 15 cents in three weeks. Ethanol imports were zero for the 19th week in a row. US ethanol is now being imported into Brazil. US weekly ethanol stocks rose to 17.1 million barrels as bad weather limited driving. Weekly corn export sales were again large at 1.34 million metric tonnes. Low prices cure low prices! USDA hiked projected exports for the year another 150 million bushels on Monday, reducing projected ending stocks to 1.48 billion bushels. USDA shows that 85% of the projected corn sales for the year are already on the books. We would typically only be 67% by now. The largest commitment in recent years has been 77%. According to the CFTC on Friday night, managed money speculator funds are now net long 34,340 corn contracts after adding 39,654 contracts in the week ending 2/11/14.

Soybean futures were up 0.45% this week, with soybean meal up 0.8%.  Weekly US soybean export sales slowed to 296,200 MT including 173,600 MT of old crop. Total US export Commitments for 2013/14 are now at 105% of the USDA forecast for the year, despite a USDA hike in projected exports last Monday. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed the large speculative traders added 29,593 new long futures and options positions in the week ending February 4. Their net long position was 176,126 contracts as of Tuesday night.

Wheat futures were sharply higher this week in all three markets. CHI was 3.6% and KC up 3.9%, while MPLS gained 4.3%. Following USDA’s 50 mbu hike in projected exports, total US export commitments are now matching the 5 year average pace at 86% of the annual total. Weekly wheat export sales on Thursday were 626,600 MT. The Commitment of Traders report shows the large managed money specs are now net long KC wheat to the tune of 13,034 contracts, and reduced their short in Chicago by another 9,738 contracts last week.

Cotton futures advanced another 0.09% this week. Global ending stocks are still projected to be record large at more than 96 million bales, although USDA did trim the number a little bit on Monday. US old crop ending stocks are still seen at 3 million bales. US Export commitments improved to 89% of the USDA forecast for the year. This compares to 82% for this point last year, and the 5 year average of 85%. The National Cotton Council survey projected 11.26 million acres to be planted in 2014, up from 10.41 million in 2013.

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

01/24/14

01/31/14

02/07/14

02/14/14

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.30

$4.34

$4.44

$4.45

$0.01

0.23%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$5.65

$5.56

$5.78

$5.99

$0.21

3.64%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$6.27

$6.16

$6.49

$6.75

$0.25

3.89%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$6.13

$6.04

$6.39

$6.67

$0.27

4.26%

Mar

Soybeans

$12.85

$12.83

$13.32

$13.38

$0.06

0.45%

Mar

Soybean Meal

$425.70

$426.10

$446.40

$450.00

$3.60

0.81%

Mar

Soybean Oil

$37.54

$37.64

$38.56

$39.15

$0.59

1.53%

Feb

Live Cattle

$143.40

$141.68

$141.20

$142.60

$1.40

0.99%

Mar

Feeder Cattle

$168.87

$169.43

$167.80

$170.48

$2.67

1.59%

April

Lean Hogs

$94.02

$94.80

$94.72

$96.22

$1.50

1.58%

Mar

Cotton

$87.21

$85.83

$87.47

$87.55

$0.08

0.09%

Mar

Oats

$3.96

$4.06

$4.37

$4.22

($0.15)

-3.38%

Mar

Rice

$15.43

$15.40

$15.34

$15.59

$0.25

1.60%

 

 Cattle futures gained 1% this week, or $1.40 per cwt. Cash cattle traded at $142 mid-week, but volume was limited. Choice boxed beef was down 1.5% this past week.  Select boxed beef lost 1.1% on a Friday/Friday basis. Weekly estimated slaughter was down 3.9% from last week and down 9.6% from the same week in 2013.  Carcass weights are up a pound from year ago. Beef production was down 3.7% for the week and down 9.4% vs. year ago. Weekly beef export sales were 16.600 MT vs 8,100 MT the prior week.

Hog futures were up 1.6% this week in the front month, getting a very modest assist from beef prices. February futures held in place and waited for the cash market to come to them. February expired at $86.52.  Estimated weekly slaughter totaled 2.113 million head, down 2.7% from last week and 1.2% below year ago. The PED virus is showing an impact, but breeding herd expansion is also underway. Estimated carcass weights are still running about 6 pounds above year ago. Pork production year to date is down 0.7% from last year. The pork carcass cutout value was up $2.13 or 2.31% this week, with the pork belly primal up 6.7%. USDA weekly export sales for pork almost doubled to 12,600 MT.

 Market Watch

Monday is a market holiday, President’s Day in the US. That means a three day weekend for traders. NOPA will issue its January soybean crush estimate on Tuesday. USDA weekly Export Inspections will also be delayed until Tuesday. Weekly Export Sales will be delayed until Friday. The main USDA monthly reports will be on Friday, with Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage.  Friday will also mark the expiration of the March grain options contracts, as well as those in the equity markets.

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

Copyright 2014 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

February Thaw

Feb 07, 2014

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

February 7, 2014

February Thaw 

No, we’re not talking about temperatures. Not when it is snowing in Dallas, Texas and showing single digit or negative temps across much of the eastern 2/3 of the United States. No, we’re talking about the grain markets. For the first time in a long time, all of them (except rice) were higher in the same week. The large blocks of bearish positions in corn and wheat were melting, thanks to persistently strong export sales, politically or financially driver disruptions in shipping from several countries, and pretty much a halt to rising production estimates for South America. Nearby corn futures settled at the highest price since October. 

Corn futures picked up another 10 cents per bushel this week, a 2.4% gain to go with the 1.3% advance from the previous week. Ethanol imports were zero for the 18th week in a row. US ethanol is now being imported into Brazil, and US weekly ethanol stocks dropped to 16.7 million barrels. RIN values rose to 50 cents per gallon as a major obligated party was forced to buy RINS. Weekly corn export sales were again huge at 1.7 million metric tonnes. Low prices cure low prices! Japan was the largest buyer at 798,900 MT.  One additional sale originally to China was re-sold to Vietnam. USDA shows that 91% of the projected corn sales for the year are already on the books. We would typically only be 64% by now. The largest commitment in recent years has been 76%. According to the CFTC on Friday night, managed money accounts decreased their net short position in corn by 46,803 contracts, bringing their position as of last Tuesday’s close only 5,314 contracts.

Soybean futures were up 3.8% for the week, aided by a 4.8% rally in nearby soybean meal. Weekly US export sales were 796,500 MT including 577,000 MT of old crop. Total US export Commitments for 2013/14 are now at 106% of the USDA forecast for the year, leading to expectations of a higher estimate in the Monday WASDE report. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed the large speculative traders added 24,902 new long futures and options positions in the week ending February 4. Their net long position was 146,533 contracts as of Tuesday night.

Wheat futures were HIGHER this week, with CHI up 3.9% and KC up 5.5%, while MPLS gained 5.8%. Total US export commitments are still a larger % of the USDA forecast than usual for this date, currently at 87% vs. the five year average of 84%.  Weekly wheat export sales through USDA increased to 733,600 MT. The Commitment of Traders report shows the large managed money specs are now net long KC wheat to the tune of 8,301 contracts, and reducing their short in Chicago.

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

01/17/14

01/24/14

01/31/14

02/07/14

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.24

$4.30

$4.34

$4.44

$0.10

2.36%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$5.64

$5.65

$5.56

$5.78

$0.22

3.91%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$6.22

$6.27

$6.16

$6.49

$0.34

5.48%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$6.18

$6.13

$6.04

$6.39

$0.35

5.84%

Mar

Soybeans

$13.17

$12.85

$12.83

$13.32

$0.49

3.80%

Mar

Soybean Meal

$434.50

$425.70

$426.10

$446.40

$20.30

4.76%

Mar

Soybean Oil

$37.74

$37.54

$37.64

$38.56

$0.92

2.44%

Feb

Live Cattle

$140.35

$143.40

$141.68

$141.20

($0.47)

-0.34%

Mar

Feeder Cattle

$167.92

$168.87

$169.43

$167.80

($1.63)

-0.96%

Feb

Lean Hogs

$86.18

$86.38

$86.23

$86.58

$0.35

0.41%

Mar

Cotton

$86.90

$87.21

$85.83

$87.47

$1.64

1.91%

Mar

Oats

$4.00

$3.96

$4.06

$4.37

$0.31

7.58%

Mar

Rice

$15.60

$15.43

$15.40

$15.34

($0.06)

-0.39%

Cattle futures continued to retreat from the all time highs set two weeks ago, losing 0.34% on the week despite a triple digit gain on Friday. The Friday rally came on news of $140+ cash cattle trade in Nebraska, reinforcing the need for Feb futures to be $141-142 going into delivery notices on Monday. Choice boxed beef was down 5.7% dropping $12.72.  Select boxed beef lost 7% on a Friday/Friday basis. Weekly estimated slaughter was down 5.0% from the same week in 2013.  Carcass weights are about even. US beef export sales for December were announced this week, at 76,234 MT. That was up 17.3% from December 2013. Weekly export sales were 8,100 MT, with Hong Kong the largest buyer.

Hog futures were up 0.41% this week in the front month, getting a very modest assist from beef prices. February futures are still maintaining a couple dollar premium to the CME Index, one week from expiration/convergence. Estimated weekly slaughter totaled 2.171 million head, up 1.8% from last week and 1.4% larger than year ago. The PED virus is showing an impact, but breeding herd expansion is also underway. Estimated carcass weights are still running about 7 pounds above year ago. The pork carcass cutout value was up $2.90 or 3.25% this week. Hams had the strongest performance as processors accumulated curing inventory to prepare for Easter. USDA weekly export sales for pork slowed to 6,600 MT from 8,700 MT for the prior reporting week. For calendar 2013, US pork exports were down 7.7% to 1.672 MMT. The bulk of the shortfall was due to the "de facto racto embargo" by Russia.

Cotton futures rallied another 1.9% this week. Global ending stocks are still projected to be record large at more than 97 million bales or a 10 month surplus. Weekly US upland cotton export sales for the week ending January 30 slowed sharply to 179,800 RB of old crop and another 35,600 RB of new crop. Significant to the cash market, weekly export shipments were the largest of the year at 358,600 RB. US Export commitments improved to 88% of the USDA forecast for the year. This compares to 81% for this point last year, and the 5 year average of 83%. The CFTC weekly commitment of traders report showed managed money accounts added 1,295 contracts to their net long position, taking them to 45,242 contracts.

 Market Watch

USDA will start the week with the monthly WASDE supply/demand estimates on Monday morning. We’ll also get the usual Export Inspections on Monday and weekly Export Sales on Thursday morning. Monday is also first notice day for deliveries vs. February futures.  Friday, in addition to being Valentine’s Day, will mark the last trading day for the February hog futures contract.

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

Copyright 2014 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

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