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November 2011 Archive for Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Tone of the Corn Market

Nov 22, 2011

It appears many producers are putting grain in the bin very aggressively in the expectation of firmer prices next summer. I see a risk developing--we get the planted acres and yield moves back to trend line; Dec 2012 could move below $5 before the September supply/demand report high.  

In fact, I believe the risk of an early spring high is extremely high and it will be difficult for producers to price their crop because
(1) it will be well below their expected $7+ cash corn target price and
(2) they will be holding a large portion of their 2011 corn unpriced in the bin.
 
Suggested Strategy: The tight basis being offered for Dec cash inventory with carry below 20 cents suggests to me that remaining 2011 inventory should have been sold anytime Midwest producers could get close to $6.80. Make plans to sell Dec 2012 corn between $6.10 and $6.25 during March and April via an “in-the-money” put rather than using forward cash sales or futures contracts. This alternative gives downside price protection and allows one to participate somewhat in a May to July price event if a supply reduction event would occur.
 
Long-term, I cannot stress strong enough my long-term concern for 2013 through 2016. Anyone remember market activity from 1981 to 1985 [after the 1974 to 1980 time period]? Bottom Line: If we are fortunate to get a weather scare event next May to June, I suggest using it to sell expected multiple-year inventory at good profits.

Read more of Bob's thoughts on marketing in the December issue of Farm Journal.

See Bob's previous Farm Journal Outlook columns.


BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT" AND "OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT" AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2011.

U.S. Economy: Bullish or Bearish?

Nov 08, 2011

There are two opposite opinions floating around about the health of the U.S. economy.

The first opinion, shared by the current administration, mainstream economists, Wall Street and most business owners, is that we are merely in the bearish portion of a normal business cycle. With enough fiscal and monetary stimulation and the rich paying their fair share of taxes, the economy will quickly move back to its hay days.

The opposite opinion suggests the game is almost over. After decades of living beyond our means, the bank account is empty and the bill is due! While there is some difference over how long it is going to take, in general there is a common agreement that dark economic times are ahead for the bulls.

This type of doomsday discussion is not new, but people are starting to notice that the economy is not bouncing back like it has in the past. Equity in housing and retirement plans is dropping, the cost of living is going up and Washington seems clueless as to how to fix it.

People who are much smarter than me are trying to figure out which opinion is correct. All I can tell you is, the years ahead will be violent—which makes concentrating on the bottom line more important than ever.
 


BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT" AND "OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT" AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2011.
 

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