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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Corn Trades Both Sides of the Market

Sep 30, 2009
Corn was very active today, trading on both sides of the market. At one time we were up over 7.5 cents and then down 2.5 cents. Concern over crop maturity and how much influence we will have on the overall crop size due to a frost which is starting to develop in the northern Corn Belt.
 
More than likely I’m hearing the same stories you are. The corn crop in the west is better than expected but early yields in the east are weaker than producers are wanting. There is some talk about test weight problems but it’s still early. One of the concerns that is starting to grow is the amount of rain in the forecast over the next few weeks. Many producers are getting uneasy that this is going to be a tough and drawn out harvest. If this concern develops several things will occur:
  1. First, getting the crop out later than expected it may be difficult to get all the fall field work that producers want to accomplish.
  2. Second, the amount of wheat plantings could be down.
  3. A slow harvest will keep the basis from crashing and the spreads from exploding.
So the good news is we may find it very difficult moving December corn below the $3.02 level. The bad news is with the potential of a crop getting bigger as the crop moves along the upside potential is extremely limited.  

Long term implication: Since the producer is very undersold in regards to this year’s crop and will be storing very aggressively it’s been my experience that the producer can not effectively sell the next year’s crop while the current crop is in the bin. If producers are not careful, they could be selling the 2009 and 2010 crop at the lower end of the price scale.


If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
 
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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

Anonymous
frost, and the market takes a dump ha! ha! ha! ha! ha!
11:13 AM Sep 30th
 
 
 
 
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