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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Corn market shifts its tone this week

Jun 18, 2009
The last week has been a rough one for the speculators and a great week for the hedgers. The overall tone of the market has shifted significantly from one of concern about inflation back to the individual fundamentals of the commodity. I have been talking about this risk but frankly I did not believe it would occur this early.

I have to say the bulls have been hurt badly for a while. It’s going to take time to recover their confidence. While I do believe the acreage report will be down 1.5 or more million acres, it’s going to be offset by the improving crop conditions and positive dollar pattern. This implies to me a price bounce of more than 50% of the recent week decline or 27 cents off the low or around $4.46 is just about all one should anticipate.

The eventual correction is expected to materialize between the August and September USDA Supply and Demand report with a maximum downside risk of $3.75 in December corn. I anticipate there will be significant scale down buying of feed needs and speculative needs at that time.


SUMMARY: Any speculative long positions recently place should be held for a price bounce into the Acreage report but one should be out before the July Supply/Demand report.

If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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