Could we continue to see wet and cool weather throughout April?
Apr 14, 2009
Talking with our weather analyst, he is quite insistent that the cool and wet conditions are going to be with us for most of April and well into May unlike other weather outlooks that are starting to surface. He also believes there will be better than 60% odds that a significant portion of the Corn Belt will not get corn planted until late May. Many producers are suggesting that if they are not planted by May 15th [especially in Missouri] they will go to beans. This all suggest things could get very volatile as we move into May. While we are suggesting the May to July time period could be very volatile and hard to be a net seller, we are still strongly urging clients to sell because once the corn goes into the ground,we believe December 2009 corn will attempt $3 by fall.
As for soybeans, the old crop beans are lifting the new crop beans. Concerns about the size of the South American crop continue to surface but I really think that’s a very thin reason to explain today’s strong price rally. I would continue to suggest the potential of a “V” bottom in the global economy is really reducing. It’s going to take more time than the politicians want—which is going to hurt their potential to do all then things they want. Concern over demand, I believe, will be the battle this fall but for now it’s the tight old crop stocks and the bad weather. Granted, eventually, delayed corn plantings will result in increased bean acres but most believe this will not happen until mid-May. The speculative strategy of choice seems to be buying the old crop and selling the new crop. I would suggest this would be an excellent way to be long the beans right now.
If we can help you with your 2009 or 2010 hedging program [using cash and futures], please give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com.
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