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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

How far can soybeans pull up corn?

May 27, 2009
The corn crop is getting planted and the bean plantings are not far behind. Limited rain fell over the last couple of days in the eastern Corn Belt allowing the corn and bean plantings to proceed at a fast rate. As we move into June, the market will move away from concern about getting the crop planted back to what we have in the bin and what type of weather we are experiencing in regard to yield performance.

While it’s still early, the implications I’m getting from our weather man is it’s not going to be an exceptionally dangerous growing season until we get to fall. So I believe the real drivers now will be the June USDA Supply and Demand report, which should indicate exceptionally tight old crop bean supplies, and the final planted acreage report due out the end of June. My expectation right now is corn acres will be down close to 2 million and bean acres will be up close to 3 million.

What does this mean to the markets?  I continue to believe beans will be the dominant commodity for the next couple of months. Granted the November contract was strong today but this will only be a short term situation. Once we get into June, the old crop beans should dominate. The issue is how much can beans pull up corn?  We also need to remember that wheat will be harvested in the late June to early July which should be a drag on corn to the downside. In summary: I see a sideways price action in corn and only moving higher if beans can extend their rally above $12 in July beans.
If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com. Tomorrow we will talk a little about the bonds, gold and crude oil.

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
 
 
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COMMENTS (5 Comments)

Anonymous
south illinois, 11 pm central time. corn planting over planted 2/3 of acreage,showers sun. mon. tues 2" all day,wed7pm-10pm 3". beans 20% planted. have to replant both corn & beans.
2008 was good compared to 2009.
12:08 AM May 28th
 
Anonymous
I think one thing people are missing right now when it comes to ag price is the impact of the US dollar. The USD index chart is in a precarious position at the moment, with no support below. This is hugely supportive towards corn, bean, and wheat prices. Also, the Brazilian Real has rallied strongly against the USD, which will have an impact on exports. As we know, the SA crop was quite poor this year, and coupled with the incentive for importers to price in USD, we will most likely see exports continue strong in beans and pick up in corn/wheat as we head through the remainder of this marketing year and going forward.
11:39 PM May 27th
 
 
 
 
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