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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Let’s hope the bull tries to buy it one more time!

Jun 22, 2010

Today is day two of the correction. After rallying for 10-days we experienced a key reversal on Monday. That is a higher high, lower low and close at the bottom of the trading range. Today’s lower gap opening does give technical support to the belief that a trend change is taking place.
 
Source: CBOT   PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS.
If you look on the chart you will note on 5/28 we saw a sharply lower opening which was followed by a 6-day sell off. The total sell off was in excess of 38 cents. If this current break would repeat this pattern, we could see on Monday the March 2011 contract trading close to $3.60 and Dec corn to the $3.50 level.
The problem we have with this level of bearishness is next week’s Actual Acreage report. If the market were to sell off with this much intensity, it would be difficult to see a bearish follow through. So as a bear, I want a retracement towards the end of this week. In fact I would love to see Monday’s highs tested which would develop a great double top formation. This I believe would put bears into a much better position for the eventual decline in July and early August towards the $3.15 to $3.30 price level.
If we have a lower opening and start to move positive by mid-day I believe this will give some bulls hope that the current correction was only correcting an overbought condition rather than a trend change. 
In summary: we are holding all short positions for the Aug/Sept lows, we are simply wanting a retest of Monday’s highs. Remember, as bears we want to entice a new round of fresh bulls into buying this market so we can feed on their equity as we move lower in July on confirmation the crop yield is going to remain above 163.5.
LONG LIVE THE BEAR!

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2010.
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COMMENTS (55 Comments)

Anonymous
BOB was right on again.he knows these markets folks.bet the whiner baby on this board is gonna have problems when he asks MR. banker dude for more money again.....LOL
1:56 PM Jun 29th
 
JB
I have read +900 for corn and -450k for soy. total corn 89.7m soy 77.6m. BUT pollination will give us the yield not the acres.
11:58 AM Jun 29th
 
 
 
 
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