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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Long Live the Bear!

Sep 15, 2009
Today’s opening was quiet after project (A) higher move.  Then something happened, the market stopped going down and started to hit overhead stops. It was almost like a bullish tidal wave swept over the market causing stop loss orders to be filled. The market was actually lock limit up in corn!
 
Why all the excitement? Yesterday’s concern about frost for the northern Corn Belt has shifted from a minor concern to a potential building major event for yield loss.  The common numbers being thrown around the trade is about a 10% loss, early estimates would suggest a 33 million loss potential.  Or more specifically, it would stop the concern about the big crop, getting bigger! 
 
Is today’s 30-cent move in corn and 65-cents in soybeans justified the start of a new bull move like we saw in the fall of 2006 and fall of 2007? Or is it just a rally to scare out the bears and get the bulls long before harvest pressure starts?
 
I strongly believe this is a bull trap! This rally is exactly what all unpriced sellers have been waiting for. If you don’t take advantage of the rally we believe you are taking a rather big risk of putting the corn in the bin unpriced and hoping for $4 plus cash corn and $10 plus beans.
 
LONG LIVE THE BEAR! I’M SHORT AND HOPING FOR MARGIN CALLS SO I CAN SELL MORE INVENTORY AT PROFITABLE LEVELS.
 
If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at laura@utterbackmarketing.com
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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COMMENTS (36 Comments)

Anonymous
2 dollar corn 5 dollar beans
10:28 AM Sep 19th
 
Anonymous
Why do I care about what prices receive for their grains. All they do is complain, you should be happy with a break even year with bumper crops and low prices. And secondly I buy all my food from the grocery store anyway.
3:53 PM Sep 18th
 
 
 
 
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