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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Market rally continues!

Dec 15, 2008
The market rally continues, but questions start to be raised as to how much more is left.

Carryover was increased in corn to more than 1.4 billion. My concern is livestock usage is still low and will be lower in the first half of 2009. The market went lower, then Spark’s numbers triggered a very bullish rally late week.

Just think about the potential for lower acres this spring and lower carryover numbers next fall had more influence over the market than near term bigger carryover and lower demand. So I have to say that I’ve been more than a little puzzled by recent rally from an oversold $3.065 on Dec. 5 to today’s high of $3.91 or 84.5 cents in five days. 

Some in the trade are suggesting the bottom is in and all troubles are behind us. I beg to differ. The recent five-day rally is not justified in my opinion.  A carryover of more than 1.4 billion bushels of corn should keep corn markets closer to $3 than to $4.  While just back from vacation, I’ve already heard from several clients and the attitude is uniform—they would rather produce $4 cash corn than $8 cash beans.

Conclusion: If you have cash sales to make, I would be taking advantage of this rally to move inventory. End of year price pressure is still expected.

If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2008.
 
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COMMENTS (8 Comments)

Anonymous
Bob wasn't making the statement though, he said clients were saying so about growing beans versus corn. C'mon Bob, do you beg to differ again today that corn was up another 18 cents, or will you wait a couple months after one or two rallies have born fruit and then corrected, and said you knew it all along. What a fraud !!
7:27 PM Dec 16th
 
Anonymous
I would have to agree with Bob on this on. Deep down,
everyone hates growing soybeans. Much harder to manage.
5:00 PM Dec 16th
 
 
 
 
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