Markets in a trading range
Jun 16, 2009
Tuesday’s bounce did show up but was very limited. Positive bean exports helped lift the beans early in the session but after the last few days correction, the bounce was only technical in nature.
The corn market was even more subdued today. It traded barely into the positive range and for most of the day was very range bound. One would have thought after a 45-cent price decline in three days, a strong price recovery would have been seen. It appears that the corn market wants to go lower one more time to blow out all the weak longs before any type of price recovery is seen.
Looking forward the tightness of the old crop beans should keep the July beans above $12. As for corn, $4 should hold but it appears limited upside potential will be seen until (1.) we see the dollar start trending lower, (2.) acres are confirmed lower and (3.) the crop conditions drop from their current 70% level good to excellent. At this time I have to say the odds are less than 40% we will get corn back to a double top formation before moving lower into fall lows. Technically, a 50% correction of the recent correction is about all one would expect.
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