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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

My thoughts on the corn market

Jun 29, 2009
Tomorrow we will get a stocks report and the important acreage projection by USDA. There is a uniform opinion that acres will be down, the question is how much? One group has acres down only 500,000 or less while the other camp has acres down close to 1.5 million plus. I have to say the tone of the market is one of being defensive and preparing more for a disappointing report than a bullish report. Since this is a holiday week the normal pattern is for prices to be very active through Wednesday but then slow down on Thursday and Friday as many traders take off for the long holiday.

The weather patterns seem to be supportive to continued corn improvement. While the weekly crop conditions are expected to drop a little, overall the conditions will remain above a year ago.  Our meteorologist continues to suggest concern for growing degree days rather than excessive heat. This would suggest the crop could look really good through July and August but simply not have enough time to fill out the crop. 

Technically, the breaking of the sideways consolidation below the $4 level is not a good sign for the bulls. It will be critical that prices start to bounce quickly or a quick slide down into the $3.80 level for December corn is very likely. Right now it will take a technical close above $4.20 to get the trade excited that about higher price potential.

If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
 
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COMMENTS (5 Comments)

Anonymous
Just because the crop is in and looking good doesn't mean big yields. Late planted corn does not yield as well.
10:29 PM Jul 7th
 
Anonymous
I think when this fall comes with all the delays we have had and the chance that a frost could take out 1\4 of the corn crop. I won't be selling any more right now.
10:23 PM Jul 7th
 
 
 
 
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