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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

My thoughts prior to tomorrow’s report.

Feb 09, 2009

It’s the day before the Supply/Demand report and the market is rallying rather hard today. It appears that the trade is more worried about the government stimulus program than increased carryover. Tomorrow’s report will be looking to balance increasing domestic supplies against the prospect of reduced global supplies, specifically Argentina. It seems to me everybody is beating the drum really hard to keep prices firm.  My expectation coming out of the report is it will not be a dominant bullish or bearish report but a little something for both the bull and bear to chew on. It’s too early to talk about weather scare, so I question what’s going to give this market direction over the next few weeks. My expectation before the report is it will be difficult for Dec corn to get back below $4 but equally very difficult to get back above $4.50. We are going to have see confirmation of weather before the market breaks out of either trading range.
 
As for soybeans, everybody with old crop beans to sell is hoping something positive comes out of tomorrow’s report to ignite the beans. Going in I’m not looking for much of a change. I assume everybody will be looking at the global numbers to see if things are getting much tighter. Looking over the next few weeks the only thing that I believe really can get things improving is if weather conditions gets worse down south. Second, if some type of dock strike occurs and temporarily drives prices higher. Granted the concern about inflation could keep old crop firm well into summer but our concerns are still quite high that a big acreage increase and slower global demand will keep the new crop prices on the defensive.  A retest of the high $9’s we continue to believe is a low rather than a high probability.
 
Final comment: We are now in the crop insurance season. We realize it’s a big financial expense but taking out an 80% CRC crop insurance program on beans could really give you a solid financial reward.  By having the insurance in place and then selling the cash the potential for returns will be huge. If you have any questions about crop insurance give Rowland a call here at UMS at 1-800-832-1488.
 
If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.
 
 
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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COMMENTS (5 Comments)

Anonymous
Hey 9:59...crude oil down $0.90, gold up 24 bucks, yet the USD index is up vs. other currencies. Not very inflationary...
2:07 PM Feb 10th
 
Anonymous
Gold can't break $910? It's trading at $910.90 at 8:53 AM EST as I type this. The threat of inflation is alive and well.
8:59 AM Feb 10th
 
 
 
 
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