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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

The corn and dollar charts!

Sep 08, 2008

The corn market bounced on project (a) after the hard sell off last week but could not hold gains. This has sent a chill over the corn bulls. The question has moved now from a whisper to major concern that the great bull market of 2008 may be over! As the chart below suggest Dec corn is currently caught between $6.25 on the upside and $5 on the downside. A breakout of either overhead resistance or downtrending support would be extremely significant.
 
Over all, the pattern of seeing early August lows has everyone including ourselves hoping for a low. The problem is the demand side of the equation is starting to change.
 
SOURCE: CBOT  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS.
 
The weekly Dollar index: The weekly Dollar index chart below shows the big decline off the 2001 highs to this summer’s low. As you will note we have seen a dramatic bounce off the bottom. This in effect is starting to cause U.S. commodity values to cost more around the world. Just think the U.S. economy with 6% employment and growth rate well below 2% is now considered one of the stronger world economies!   I guess there is room for concern about the status of the world demand for the immediate future.
 
SOURCE: NYBOT  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS.
 
Technically the corn charts are at a critical point. We need solid evidence that the corn yield is going to be below 152 and the dollar to retreat back towards the 74 to 76 range to get the nearby corn market excited.  My concern is the risk of a downside slide into the end of the month is higher because one really can prove yields are down until the combines start to run later in October.
 
If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.
 
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2008.
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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

CJ Oakwood
Bob,
Ave yield under 150 and a frost in the upper Midwest and the "testerone" will flow like beer at a frat party! The Corn crop is not out there.....USDA is telling their lies as per usual! We will know in 30-45 days!
8:39 PM Sep 8th
 
 
 
 
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