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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Weather and Reader Responses

May 20, 2009
There is very little to change in the forecasts for the next 10 days given what the model data has been saying and what the consensus forecasts are calling for. This is going to be a wet Memorial Day weekend over the upper Plains and Midwest and that stormy wet pattern pattern will continue over much of the Central Plains and Midwest to May 27 to 28.  

I am getting a little concerned that some of the
trade thinks that the wet interval in the Midwest is going to May 26 because that is when the Memorial Day weekend ends. According to the latest data...and the data from the past few model runs of the GFS European and the Canadian... that is not going to be the case.
The prospect of a new dry interval is still there but again that forecast has been pushed back to the 11 to 15 day time frame.
The surface weather map this morning shows a low pressure area now in the southeast Gulf of Mexico near Key West developing as forecasted. The hurricane center has decided that the system is not really a tropical low, although it does have some tropical characteristics. All the model data has the system moving into Louisiana over the weekend... then tracking north off the Mississippi River Valley into the Midwest May 25 through 27.

If the tropical low moves north up the Mississippi Valley it will bring significant rain to a good portion of the Midwest May 26 to May 29. Meanwhile, we still have that cold front pushing down across the Upper Plains May 24 and 25. In that front will bring significant showers and thunderstorms to portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. DT  WXRISK.COM  804 307 8070
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Reader Feedback:
In reference to my commentary on the economy and outside markets [reprinted below] a reader from Illinois says:
Eventually the end users will decide the price of commodities and any corrections in the markets. As I have observed before, that Obama has the ability to "talk" the markets up or down which is worrisome in itself. If crude continues to above 65, I think he will "talk" that market down with imposing contract ownership limits, etc., which will have a poisonous effect on all commodities.
When Obama speaks of redistributing the wealth, he is dead serious. The handling of the auto industry and UAW is grand display. They should have been allowed to go bankrupt in the early stages and let the judge kill the UAW contracts to get costs down to more reasonable prices.
As it stands in all segments, we are not lowering the costs of the products, we are increasing them by destroying competition and cutting production.
We need a business man as president, but none can afford the cut in pay.
.......
Another reader in Michigan sent us:
Bob:  I could not agree more with your words!!!!!  I live in Michigan and our economy has been in trouble for years, but now we are in real trouble.  In my county the unemployment rate is about 15%.  Thousands of houses are empty in our cities but now also in the rural areas as well.
Washington/Lansing are trying great social engineering/experiments.  I am very afraid for the future of our once great land.  I think we are in for a round of massive inflation within the next two to three years.  This is a real battle between capitalism and at least some form of socialism.  As government extends it's control over business and industry, the owners and investors just begin to give up and quit.  The political pendulum always swings in the country but right now it is way to the left and I think the people in Washinton are trying to hold the pendulum hostage for the foreseeable future.  When we can no longer sell our debt on the world market, our dollar will be devalued.  China has slowed it's buying and has turned to buying gold and hard commodities (ie. gold, silver, copper, oil, etc.).  They will soon be in a very good position of control.
A quick word about the local farming here in southern Michigan.  I am a retired agriscience teacher and now help part time on a cash grain farm.  We are currently 40% planted on 6800 acres.  This week we were just getting dried out and made good progress earlier this week.  Now we have had 3+ inches of water in the last 48 hours.  We have lost some acres to flooding and will be out of the fields until at least the 21st or 22nd.
Our water table is very full and any rain just has no where to go.  Many of our producers are hurting because of the U.S. and Michigan economies.  Imput cost are high and ag-friendly lenders of the past are now very tight with money.  You were very right when you wrote it is a year to just hang on......  Thanks

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If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
 
 
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