Brazilian Crop Estimates
Dec 16, 2009
CONAB increased grains production for next harvest on 5.500.000 metric tons. Total planted (for grains) area should reach 0.7% up last crop. While we see area reduction for almost all cultures, soybean increases 6% from last year. CONAB estimates Brazil will harvest 64.56 millions of tons of soybean.
Corn and cotton show major area reductions - (6.4%) and (6.2%) from last year. Cotton price is rising up, and it may stimulate more area.
Although weather is cheating RS (south) and Northern region, the Central area is benefited for early rains. Important to note that Central region represents 4% of world offer.
Rumors from the analysts’ chats are about the threats of rust in central states. In the way early rains allowed early soybean, a too short period from last crop was held.
We certainly will see more rust focus this year. Because that reason, and also because we have more soybean, and we have a rust monitor program better than in the past.
Following is the latest CONAB, the Brazilian government agency, estimates for next Brazil crop.
(scroll down for table)
|
CONAB
|
Harvest (1000 metric tons)
|
Area (1000 hectares)
|
|
DEC 2009
|
2009
|
2010
|
change (%)
|
2009
|
2010
|
change (%)
|
|
Soybeans
|
57.161,60
|
64.560,90
|
12,9%
|
21.741,80
|
23.048,30
|
6,0%
|
|
Corn total
|
51.003,90
|
50.152,90
|
-1,7%
|
14.152,70
|
13.243,00
|
-6,4%
|
|
C. 1st crop
|
33.654,90
|
32.011,90
|
-4,9%
|
9.251,40
|
8.341,70
|
-9,8%
|
|
C. 2nd crop
|
17.349,00
|
18.141,00
|
4,6%
|
4.901,30
|
4.901,30
|
0,0%
|
|
Cotton seeds
|
1.890,60
|
1.865,90
|
-1,3%
|
843,2
|
791,3
|
-6,2%
|
|
Cotton Fiber
|
1.213,70
|
1.197,20
|
-1,4%
|
|
Total Grains
|
135.129,70
|
140.597,70
|
4,0%
|
47653,8
|
47977,9
|
0,7%
|
