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Welcome to the Southern View blog featuring fresh information about grains and cotton production in Brazil, along with information about Argentina's and Paraguay's crops.

CONAB Increases Grain Production

Apr 07, 2009

Brazil – CONAB increased grains production by 2,253 million tons. It’s making some noise in local market because 2 million come from corn and soybean, with about 1.5 million tons for corn and about 500 thousand tons for soybeans.
Although these cultures are really getting good yields so far, what is really surprising is the states which were realized the major increasing: PR, RS and MS – RS (location references below) responsible for all the 500 thousand tons of soybeans -  all those three states was supposed to be the most affected by climate this season. We can figure out CONAB had overestimated the effects of drought earlier, or are underestimating it now!
Some minutes before the report, we were in a meeting with some traders from a crusher, and they were just coming from a meeting with some RS producers. They were betting CONAB would report a RS soybean crop below 8 million tons, but it came with 8.3.
Major cultures (1000 t)
Soybeans: 58.136,50
Corn total: 51.908,7
Wheat: 6.015,6
Rice: 12.670,9
Bean: 3.811,2
Total Grains: 137.573,9
Argentina – La Bolsa de Cereales de Córdoba reports 39.4 million tons of soybean is expected to be harvested this year. It comes in line with last SAGPYA 37-39 mi tons. Some private agencies calculate about 35 mi tons.
The main reason is the current drought in the filling stage, resulting in lower weights of grains. Obtained yields with current harvest is below expected indicating those numbers.
Infocampo estimates current Argy stocks of soybeans in about 4,5 – 5 million tons. As per their ag analysts, producers can hold sales due to comfortable situation regarding inputs purchasing.  
Besides that, government banished import incentives for soybean based food. This measure comes to protect producer’s prices, increasing even more the local demand for beans. I think this should be the bullish fact.  

Here are some references of major grain producer region/states:
Region / Total grain area (1000 hectares)
State / grain area (1000 hectares)
North East / 8313
BA – Bahia / 2854
MA – Maranhão / 1340
PI – Piauí / 1012
CE – Ceará / 1440
North / 1645
PA – Pará / 550
TO – Tocantins / 600,3
RO – Roraima / 380
Centre – West / 15100
MT – Mato Grosso / 8450
MS – Mato Grosso do Sul / 2820
GO – Goiás / 3686
South East / 4802
MG – Minas Gerais / 2810
SP – São Paulo / 1915
South / 17775
PR – Paraná / 8800
SC – Santa Catarina / 1456
RS – Rio Grande do Sul / 7536
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