Conab Reported Brazilian Production Forecast
May 07, 2009
| |
May (1,000 tons) |
dif. TO APR report |
| Soybeans |
57,618.4 |
(-518.1) |
| Total Corn |
51,908.7 |
(-527.5) |
| Cotton Fiber |
1,253 |
(+4.7) |
| Cotton Seeds |
1,952.7 |
(+6.2) |
Soybean reduction comes from south, correcting the last month report which increased RS production in 500mi tons, just when this state faces it’s worst drought in several decades. Reduction also in Paraná with 19,5% reductions comparing to last year crop. This is the major producer an where the major export haul is located.
I believe there is more room for reductions in south, and also in northeastern states where serious floods is happening now, just in the harvest season. Many producers from NE region reported several losses in soybean flooded area.
I would not be surprised if we have a soybean crop near 56 million tons.
Second crop Corn is being planted under drought in south, and flood in northeast. A reduction about 500.000 tons, at least, is very possible.
Cotton is receiving too much rain in Bahia. Downer bolls are already open, and some closed bolls are getting rotten. Same situation in Maranhão, Tocantins and Piaui, where there is also some cottons fields. We can expect 1,200 mi tons or less.
Argentina – rumors some private agencies estimates 31 -32 mi tons soybean crop.
