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Welcome to the Southern View blog featuring fresh information about grains and cotton production in Brazil, along with information about Argentina's and Paraguay's crops.

Drought in the South

Mar 27, 2009

We talked to some producers in RS (Southern Brazil) and they are very worried with current drought. Has 15 days without rains, and forecasts doesn’t show any change until April 8th. RS was expected to produce 7.000 ktons, and we calculate it can reach near 5.000 kton, as beans are now in the filling stage.
 
Same situation happens in Argentina, but for a bigger area. It’s worst there ‘because they have some late planting in many areas. Can’t tell how much should they loose, but surely more than 2.000ktons.
 
In the other hand, in the CW region of Brazil, harvesting can slow down due too much rain. But, indeed, harvesting is advanced there.
 
Basis started to level up again here to +55¢/bu over CBOT. Paranaguá port reference.
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COMMENTS (2 Comments)

Eder Silveira
It'a good to hear things are better in RS. In fact last days we noticed a better humor from producers, and local crushers also confirmed good yields from their suppliers. But we talket to an Unijui's ag annalist, and he feels a high risk to have a crop under 8 mi tons. Also Emater/RS registered 56% of soybean is now in the filling stage, and 5% in bloon. It means 61% in the risk zone. Unfortunately these numbers makes us believe to have more chance to loose some yields than to have a super crop.
8:51 AM Apr 3rd
 
David Brew
I think you're underestimating the Rio Grande do Sul crop which should pass the 8 million ton mark even after march being so short of rain. The state government have issued some very low production numbers this year (quite how they reach their conclusions I have NO idea!!) but had it not been for this last drought, we would have reached 9 million tons of beans.
I have lived and worked in Rio Grande do Sul for 30 years now so should have a reasonable idea of how things are here.

As you said, Argentina suffered more than us, their drought lasting for longer. The size of their bean crop is still uncertain but from the original 50 million plus tons, even the USDA have dropped to 43 million and since then the weather has continued lousy so you could imagine their number falling further still.
cheers
11:18 AM Mar 30th
 
 
 
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