Seeding Period on Threat
Sep 29, 2010
We are facing La Niña effects. Doesn’t rains in MT since April 4th. It’s six Months. The early soybeans should be on seeding already, but producers are changing strategies due to lowest soil moisture in 10 years. It’s fact there will have no soybeans in December, as used to be.
It’s important to realize this early soybean represented 30% of last year offer in MT. And it’s directly related to producer payback, once planting early soybean, they can grow 2 crops of cotton (early soybean + second crop cotton in same land). With this severe drought, and prices especially attractive for cotton (due to internal shortage), the scenario is really good for changing some area of early soybean for normal cotton.
It doesn’t mean MT will have 30% less soybeans. Producers will concentrate in normal crop, which performs a better yield and so will compensate some of lost area. As well cotton growing in MT is reducing year by year, so swift area is limited.
Considering only the drought effects of La Niña, we can expect a 5% reduction on MT’s offer of soybean.
Northern region still in the window of seeding, but with a sharp eye on forecast. Must to rain until oct 10th to have a normal season; So far forecasts are negative.
Southern is known it will be a hard year. La Niña always acts badly there with a severe drought in summer.