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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

3/31/10 USDA Report

Mar 31, 2010




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I call the market $.25 lower old crop soybeans, $.10 lower new crop soybeans

Corn should be $.05 lower on the open

Wheat is a coin toss 

 

Prospective Plantings

Released March 31, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Corn Planted Acreage Up 3 Percent from 2009

Soybean Acreage Up Less Than 1 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Down 9 Percent

All Cotton Acreage Up 15 Percent

Corn growers intend to plant 88.8 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2010, up 3 percent from both last year and 2008. Expected acreage is up in many States due to reduced winter wheat acreage and expectations of improved net returns. Acreage increases of 300,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio. The largest decreases are expected in Iowa, down 200,000 acres, and Texas, down 150,000 acres.

Soybean producers intend to plant 78.1 million acres in 2010, up less than 1 percent from last year. If realized, the United States planted area will be the largest on record. Acreage increases of 100,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The largest decreases are expected in Georgia and North Carolina, both 150,000 acres less than 2009. If intentions are realized, the planted acreage in Kansas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania will be the largest on record.

All wheat planted area is estimated at 53.8 million acres, down 9 percent from 2009. The 2010 winter wheat planted area, at 37.7 million acres, is 13 percent below last year but up 2 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 28.3 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.0 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.4 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2010 is estimated at 13.9 million acres, up 5 percent from 2009. Of this total, about 13.3 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2010 is estimated at 2.22 million acres, down 13 percent from the previous year.

All cotton plantings for 2010 are expected to total 10.5 million acres, 15 percent above last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 10.3 million acres, up 15 percent. Growers intend to increase planted area in all States except Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana. The largest acreage increase is in Texas where producers intend to plant 600,000 acres more acres of upland cotton than in 2009. American-Pima cotton growers intend to increase their plantings by 34 percent from 2009 to 190,000 acres. California producers intend to plant 165,000 acres, up 39 percent from last year.

Report 3/31/10

Released March 31, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Corn Stocks Up 11 Percent from March 2009

Soybean Stocks Down 2 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Up 30 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 7.69 billion bushels, up 11 percent from March 1, 2009.  Of the total stocks, 4.55 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 11 percent from a year earlier.  Off-farm stocks, at 3.15 billion bushels, are up 10 percent from a year ago.  The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance is 3.23 billion bushels, compared with 3.12 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 1.27 billion bushels, down 2 percent from March 1, 2009.  Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 609 million bushels, down 7 percent from a year ago.  Off-farm stocks, at 661 million bushels, are up 2 percent from last March.  Indicated disappearance for the December 2009 - February 2010 quarter totaled 1.07 billion bushels, up 10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 1.35 billion bushels, up 30 percent from a year ago.  On-farm stocks are estimated at 348 million bushels, up 24 percent from last March.  Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 32 percent from a year ago.  The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance is 429 million bushels, up 12 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 55.6 million bushels, up 72 percent from a year ago.  On-farm stocks, at 34.3 million bushels, are up 83 percent from March 1, 2009.  Off-farm stocks totaled 21.3 million bushels, up 57 percent from a year ago.  The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance of 20.1 million bushels is up 65 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Barley stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 157 million bushels, up 22 percent from March 1, 2009.  On-farm stocks are estimated at 67.4 million bushels, 52 percent above a year ago.  Off-farm stocks, at 90.0 million bushels, are 6 percent above March 2009.  The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance totaled 49.0 million bushels, 12 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 98.0 million bushels, 3 percent above the stocks on March 1, 2009.  Of the total stocks on hand, 30.9 million bushels are stored on farms, up 2 percent from a year ago. 

Off-farm stocks totaled 67.1 million bushels, up 3 percent from the previous year.  Indicated disappearance during December 2009 - February 2010 totaled 12.6 million bushels, down 35 percent from the same period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 175 million bushels, down 15 percent from a year ago.  On-farm stocks, at 23.7 million bushels, are down 26 percent from last March.  Off-farm stocks, at 152 million bushels, are down 13 percent from a year earlier.  The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance from all positions is 75.5 million bushels, down 18 percent from the same period last year.

Sunflower stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 1.21 billion pounds, up 6 percent from March 1, 2009.  All stocks stored on farms totaled 604 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 602 million pounds.  Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 992 million pounds; of this total, 533 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 459 million pounds are off-farm stocks.  Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 214 million pounds, with 70.7 million pounds stored on the farm and 144 million pounds stored off the farm.

 

 

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COMMENTS (2 Comments)

Anonymous
5% lower test weights equal 157 bu. national average, even a moron can figure thaat out, but were talking about a bunch of dumdasses.
9:23 PM Apr 4th
 
Anonymous
USDA never factored in low test weight for the simple fact that they do not want to. So their stocks are at least 10% too high. They wanted a 13+ billion bushel corn crop and they will continue to sell the fact that low test weight does not effect yield and has no effect on livestock.If you had low test weight corn you probably think it effect your yield, but you are wrong according to the chicken counters at the USDA.
8:12 PM Apr 2nd
 
 
 
 
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