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July 2011 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE Report for 7/12/11

Jul 12, 2011

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WASDE Reprort for 7/12/11

9am Opening call: Corn 5 cents higher, soybeans 5 cents lower, and wheat unchanged.

Note: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today

by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For rice, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS

Acreage report, and methods used to project production are noted on each table. The first survey-based 2011 production forecasts for those

crops will be reported by NASS on August 11 and will be included in that day's issue of this report.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 96.3 million tons, down 2.3 million tons from last month, with lower soybean

production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at 3.225 billion bushels, down 60 million due to reduced

harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 74.3 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 1.4 million below the June projection. The

soybean yield is projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are 40 million bushels below last month=s

forecast as higher beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Exports for 2011/12 are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting
lower U.S. supplies, increased supplies in South America this fall, and reduced global imports. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 175

million bushels, down 15 million.

U.S. soybean exports for 2010/11 are projected at 1.52 billion bushels, down 20 million from last month in part reflecting lower projected imports for China. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 200 million bushels, up 20 million.

The 2011/12 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at a record $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel, down $1.00 on both ends of the range.

Soybean meal prices are projected at $345 to $375 per short ton, down $30 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54 to

58 cents per pound, down 4 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 455.5 million tons, down 1.4

million from last month. Lower soybean, peanut, and rapeseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for sunflowerseed. Global

soybean production is projected at 261.5 million tons, down 1.3 million mostly due to lower production in the United States. Higher soybean

production for Russia resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada due
to lower harvested area. Despite a record planted area estimate reported by Statistics Canada based on producer surveys conducted in late

May and early June, much of the intended area in southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba did not get planted due to excessive

moisture through late June. As a result, the Canada rapeseed crop is projected at 12.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Other

changes include increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased sunflowerseed production for Russia and Ukraine, and reduced canola,

cottonseed, and peanut production for the United States.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are raised 90 million bushels as higher carryin and production more than offset reductions in imports

and higher use. Beginning stocks are raised 52 million bushels mostly reflecting higher estimated carryout for 2010/11 as reported in the June 30

Grain Stocks report. Production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,106 million bushels, up 48 million from last month as higher winter wheat production

and higher forecast yields for durum and other spring wheat more than offset lower area as estimated in the June 30 Acreage report. Partly

ffsetting is a 10-millionbushel reduction in projected imports with lower expected supplies in Canada.

U.S. wheat usage for 2011/12 is raised with a shift in expected seed usage from 2010/11 and higher expected exports compared with last

month. Seed use for 2011/12 is raised 7 million bushels as late planting in the Northern Plains shifted seed usage for the 2011 crop into the

2011/12 marketing year which began June 1. Exports are raised 100 million bushels with larger domestic supplies and reduced competition

expected from Canada.

Ending stocks are projected 17 million bushels lower at 670 million. While ending stocks remain adequate for most

classes of wheat, durum stocks are projected to be especially tight with sharply lower area and production this year. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 40 cents on each end of the projected range to $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel, mostly reflecting the sharp drop in projected corn prices this month.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 0.9 million tons higher as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected world production. Larger carryin in the United States and Russia accounts for most of the increase in 2011/12 world beginning stocks. Revisions to 2010/11 trade and usage for a number of other countries, based on the latest data, also affect world beginning stocks for 2011/12.

World wheat production for 2011/12 is projected down 1.9 million tons with reductions in Canada, Ukraine, and Mexico, more than offsetting increases for the United States, Turkey, and EU-27. Canada production is lowered 3.5 million tons as persistent heavy rains and flooding well into the second half of June limited planting opportunities for spring wheat in southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Ukraine as persistent spring dryness in north central areas of the country stressed developing plants and appears to have limited vegetative growth and tillering. Production is lowered 0.4 million tons for Mexico based on the latest official reports. Turkey production is raised 1.1 million tons as bundant spring moisture boosted yields across the country. EU-27 production is raised 0.6 million tons as higher yields for Spain and Romania more than offset a reduction for Hungary. Global wheat exports for 2011/12 are projected 2.4 million tons higher, mostly with higher expectedexports from the United States and Russia. Imports are raised for EU-27, Egypt, Mexico, Japan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Yemen. Partly offsetting are import reductions for the United States, South Korea, and Vietnam. Exports are raised for Russia as relatively low prices make Russian wheat competitive into North Africa and Middle East markets. Exports are also raised for Turkey with larger production. Exports are lowered for Ukraine reflecting the smaller expected crop. Lower exports from Canada are more than offset by higher exports from the United States. Global 2011/12 wheat consumption is raised 3.0 million tons, mostly reflecting higher wheat feeding in EU-27, Russia, and Turkey, higher food use in Egypt, Japan, and Russia, and higher industrial use in Canada. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in wheat feeding in Australia, Canada, and South Korea. Global ending stocks are projected 2.1 million tons lower with most of the decline expected in the Russia, Canada, and the United States.


COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month mostly with higher expected beginning stocks and

production for corn. Corn beginning stocks are raised 150 million bushels reflecting changes to 2010/11 usage projections. Corn production for

2011/12 is projected 270 million bushels higher based on planted and harvested area as reported in the Acreage report. Feed and residual use

for 2011/12 is raised 50 million bushels with larger supplies and lower expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels with

larger supplies and an improved outlook for ethanol producer margins. Exports are raised 100 million bushels mostly reflecting increased

demand from China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 175 million bushels higher at 870 million. The 2011/12 season-average farm price

for corn is projected at a record $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel, down 50 cents on both ends of the range.

Lower production for the other U.S. feed grains for 2011/12 mostly reflect lower estimated area from the Acreage report, which is partly offset by higher forecast yields for barley. Oats yields are lowered. Domestic use is projected lower for sorghum and oats, and sorghum exports are lowered. Projected farm prices are lowered for sorghum, barley, and oats.

Total U.S. corn use for 2010/11 is projected 145 million bushels lower mostly reflecting the larger-than expected June 1 stocks estimate. Feed and residual use is lowered 150 million bushels. Ethanol use is raised 50 million bushels with larger supplies and improved ethanol producer margins. Partly offsetting is a 20-million-bushel reduction in use for sweeteners reflecting slower demand from Mexico. Corn exports are lowered 25 million bushels based on the slower-than-expected pace of shipments in recent weeks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels with continued strong shipments from Canada. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are raised 150 million bushels to 880 million. The season-average farm price is projected at $5.15 to $5.35 per bushel compared with $5.20 to $5.50 last month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 10.3 million tons higher mostly on higher corn beginning stocks and production in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks changes are mostly offsetting with corn carryin lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada and barley carryin raised 0.2 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, for Argentina and Australia. Foreign corn production is lowered 0.6 million tons. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons each for Mexico and Russia, and 0.2 million tons for Canada. Ukraine corn production is raised 0.5 million tons and production for Belarus is raised 0.2 million tons. World barley production is raised 1.3 million tons with production raised 1.0 million tons for Russia, 0.8 million tons for Turkey, 0.4 million tons for EU-27, and 0.2 million tons for Argentina. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Ukraine barley. Canada oats production is lowered 0.4 million tons.

Global corn trade for 2011/12 is raised with higher imports for China. China corn imports are

raised 1.5 million tons to 2.0 million reflecting the recently announced sale to China and favorable pricing opportunities for U.S. corn into southern

China where growing demand is reducing stocks. Corn exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada and 0.2 million tons each for Mexico and

Russia, partly offsetting the U.S. increase. Global corn consumption is raised 5.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in China, the United

States, and Ukraine, and higher industrial use expected in the United States and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.8 million

tons higher with the U.S. increase only partly offset by reductions for Canada and Mexico.

RICE: U.S. rice supplies in 2011/12 are lowered 6 percent to 256.6 million cwt as beginning stocks and production are reduced 6.0 million and

12.5 million, respectively. These reductions are partially offset by a 1.0 million cwt increase in imports to 19.0 million. Ending stocks for 2010/11

(beginning stocks for 2011/12) are lowered 6.0 million cwt as 2010/11 domestic and residual use is raised based on the Rice Stocks report

showing stocks as of June 1, which indicated lower-than-expected stocks and implied higher 2010/11 annual usage than previously estimated.

Rice production in 2011/12 is lowered 6 percent to 187.0 million cwt due entirely to a reduction in acreage. Harvested area for 2011/12 is
lowered 185,000 acres to 2.65 million. The average all rice yield is raised slightly to 7,059 pounds per acre. Area in 2011/12 is the lowest since

1987/88, and the crop size would be the lowest since 1997/98. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 5.0 million cwt to 227.0 million as exports are

lowered 6.0 million (all in long-grain rice) to 100.0 million, partially offset by a 1.0 million increase in domestic and residual use.
Rough rice and combined milled and brown rice exports (rough-equivalent basis) are each reduced 3.0 million cwt to 36.0 million and 64 million,

respectively. Tighter supplies in 2011/12 along with plentiful supplies among the major exporters will likely limit U.S. exports. Ending stocks for

2011/12 are projected at 29.6 million cwt, down 12.5 million, or 30 percent from a month ago, and 21.0 million, or 42 percent below 2010/11.
The 2011/12 long-grain rice U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, up 70 cents per cwt on each end of the

range from last month compared to $11.10 per cwt for 2010/11. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.00 to $17.00

per cwt, up $1.00 per cwt from a month ago compared to $17.00 per cwt for 2010/11. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $13.20 to $14.20

per cwt, up $1.00 per cwt on each end of the range. Global 2011/12 rice production and trade are little changed from last month, while

consumption is lowered and ending stocks are raised. Global production is projected at a record 456.3 million tons, down fractionally as the drop

in the U.S. crop is nearly offset by an increase for Egypt.

Global exports in 2011/12 are lowered slightly due mostly to an expected decline in U.S.

exports. Global consumption in 2011/12 is lowered 1.7 million tons due mostly to a reduction for India. World ending stocks for 2011/12 are

projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million from last month, and nearly the same as the previous year. The increase in ending stocks is due

mostly to an increase for India.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is increased 218,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Higher imports from

Mexico more than offset lower beginning stocks. Total 2011/12 U.S. sugar use is unchanged. For Mexico, 2010/11 ending stocks are increased

102,000 metric tons, raw value, with lower production more than offset by reduced domestic use and exports. For 2011/12, the larger beginning

stocks and decreases in domestic use and ending stocks result in higher exports of 258,000 tons. The decrease in 2011/12 domestic use is in

line with weaker demand for total sweeteners in Mexico.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2011 total meat production is lowered from last month as lower beef production more than

offsets higher expected pork and turkey production. Beef production is lowered as steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter was lower

than expected although more cows were slaughtered. In addition, recent placements of lighter-weight cattle are expected to moderate carcass

weight growth during the year. The 2011 pork production forecast is raised on larger fourth-quarter slaughter. Broiler production for 2011 is

unchanged as higher secondquarter production is offset by lower forecast production in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is raised largely on

higher second-quarter production. No change is made to table egg production but hatching egg production is lowered due to a stronger forecast

decline in last-quarter broiler production.

For 2012, meat production forecasts are reduced as a sharper reduction in the broiler production forecast more than offsets higher pork and

turkey production. Larger cutbacks in broiler production are expected to carry into 2012 before production increases gradually later in the year.

The pork production forecast is raised slightly, driven primarily by gains in pigs per litter. Despite higher forecast hog prices, producers are

expected to remain cautious in expanding farrowings. Egg production forecasts for 2012 are reduced on less demand for hatching eggs.
A small increase is made to the export forecast for beef in 2011 but no changes are made to pork or broiler exports. For 2012, pork exports are

raised, but no changes are made to either beef or broilers. No changes are made to beef, pork, or broiler imports for either 2011 or 2012.
Cattle and hog prices are forecast higher for 2011 but forecast broiler prices are lowered as large supplies are pressuring prices. For 2012, attle

price forecasts are unchanged. Hog price forecasts are raised as demand strength carries into 2012, but price gains will be moderated by

higher production. Broiler prices are raised slightly as 2012 supplies are forecast to be tighter. Milk production forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are

raised. Cow numbers are forecast higher as higher milk prices and lower forecast feed prices support further herd expansion, but milk per cow is
unchanged from last month. Commercial exports on a fat basis are forecast higher for 2011. Ending stock forecasts are raised as cheese stocks

are larger than expected. Dairy product price forecasts for 2011 are raised from last month. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised

from last month in line with increased product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $20.00 to $20.30 per cwt for 2011. For 2012, the butter

price is forecast slightly higher than last month, but forecasts for other products are unchanged. Class price forecasts are unchanged. The all
milk price forecast for 2012 is unchanged at $17.75 to $18.75 per cwt.


COTTON: The 2011/12 U.S. cotton projections show higher ending stocks relative to last month, despite a sharp reduction in expected roduction,

which is based on unfavorable weather. Beginning stocks are raised 500,000 bales due to continued export sales cancellations and the slow

pace of shipments in the final months of 2010/11. The 2011/12 production forecast is reduced 1.0 million bales from last month to 16.0 million,

despite larger planted area in the June Acreage report, as abandonment is forecast at a record 30 percent due to historic drought conditions,

mainly in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month. Exports are lowered 1.0 million bales to 12.0 million, due both to reduced U.S.

supplies and weaker foreign demand. Ending stocks are raised to 3.0 million bales. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 19 percent, while above

last month's indication, is still relatively tight. The average price received by producers is now projected at 90 to 110 cents per pound, 5 cents

below last month on each end of the range. The world 2011/12 cotton projections also include higher beginning stocks, lower production, and

lower offtake compared with last month. Beginning stocks are raised mainly in the United States and India. The decline in U.S. production is

partially offset by an increase for Australia. World consumption is lowered nearly 2 percent from last month, as surplus yarn stocks and ubstitution

of polyester for cotton in textile products are expected to reduce demand below previous expectations. Imports are reduced for several countries

as a result of weaker demand growth, with China accounting for more than half of the reduction. Exports are reduced for the United States, Brazil,

and Australia, but are raised for India. World ending stocks are increased nearly 6 percent to 51 million bales. The projected stocks-to-use
ratio of 44 percent reflects recovery from the very tight levels of the two preceding years, but is still the third lowest since 1994/95.

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Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.


 

 

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/6/11

Jul 07, 2011

This report was sent to subscribers on 7/5/11 3:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/6/11.

July Soybeans

After the close recap on 7/6/11: My pivot acted as resistance and was 13.36, .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 13.22, .00 3/4 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14
hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 7/7/11 have already been sent to subscribers at 5:00 pm.

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July Soybeans

13.57 ¼
13.50
--------------13.36 Pivot
13.22
13.06 ¼ FG
12.90
Trend
5 day chart... Up from last week same day
Daily chart .... Down
Weekly chart ... Up
Monthly chart Up $13.30 ½ is the 200 DMA
ATR 25 ½ Balanced 68%

 

soybeans 7 6 11

 

For 7/6/11: I still say "Downtrend line is support now (as it was on Friday). The low in March supports, uptrend line resists". Downtrend line at $13.80 is major.

In my daily soybean numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .06 ¼ from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .02 from the actual low.

7/6/11:

Grains: Spot on soybean numbers, spot on corn resistance and accurate support number. We got the up day I was looking for and I would like to see more corrective action as do all my producers. The feature on Tuesday was July corn. There was a squeeze in play it looks like to me, and the longs are sticking it to the bears. The "raider" kind of funds are out there to exploit the market anyway they can, short term or long term, and if nothing else exploit the "odds" in like fashion to mine. Except this game is for the "big boys" not someone like myself. They can hold their long position and accept delivery while the shorts are speculating and do not have the product or the warehouse receipts top deliver, so they must buy their shorts back at any cost. Yes, they can go get the cash and get it to a certified warehouse, but good luck trying to save money trying to do so. That is not what the speculator is knowledgeable about. The funds will lose some money on what they might have to take delivery of and dump for a loss. But what they make on squeezing the shorts on a few thousand or more contracts makes it highly profitable. The more the shorts waited for a pull back, the more the market went against them. Speculators this far into the month are usually "short" because they do not have to worry about catching delivery, and the funds know that too.

The speculator unless knowledgeable of the cash market game, have no business to be in the reality of the here and now, make or take delivery, with professionals who know how to profit in that environment. The commercials could have and should be the ones that are bidding up the contract. My feeling is that when the July/December (CN/CZ) spread traded at $.05 when corn was limit down on report day, it looked more than the right thing to do, but by the end of the day that spread was trading $.35. That was a warning to the bears that the market would put in a bottom. In my first paragraph in 7/5 comments I said the spread could trade more than the outright contract months and it did. The spread traded from $.35 to $.75 on Tuesday. This is also a warning to the commercials that the PRC could once again defer taking corn until the new crop, and this spread as well the market could collapse. I have seen many a squeeze in my day, and this is another one of them. I called the floor late in the day to ask a corn spreader that I respect for an opinion, and he said he had no clue and that is why he has no trades in "July" on his cards.

My producers, who were taking heat below $6.30 with their old crop coverage running out quickly, were happy to see the market come back today, and give them an opportunity to buy some protection of $.30 on some of their outstanding contracts. They all have locked in $7.50 or higher where their hedges were turned into futures.

The bottom line in my thoughts is this; there is no reason fundamentally, technically, or weather wise to see us rally more than for a correction, and as long as weather stays benign I see us eroding into the harvest. I can see leaving in a weather premium for soybeans August weather, and the balance sheet is more favorable to rally soybeans if there is a problem with yield potential. Crop report today was bearish and encourages a possible upward revision to yield on the 12th report, let's see what next Monday's crop conditions look like.

I want to trade the numbers without bias but prefer to take sells at resistance, and risk $.06 in corn and $.08 in soybeans on any trade idea using a stop to protect.

For 7/5/11:

Grains: Spot on soybean support and accurate resistance, spot on corn resistance and accurate support numbers. Funds continue to liquidate selling 15,000 corn contracts on Friday. Friday's action was easy for me to anticipate, and with my comments explaining what I think is common sense and logic applied to charting, you do not press areas that are likely to hold up even if it is only for a few days. These charts need more bars (days) to confirm the low just made will act like a springboard in search of resistance. Friday's action was either the result of short covering profit taking before the long weekend, or because of the strength in soybeans, maybe both. Thinking short covering would happen after a break second only to 2008 and now at chart support levels, was easy, but the friendly soybean report would be outweighed should corn continue lower. Spreading between soybeans and corn as well as the activity in the old/new crop corn is volatile now and can move as much as either contract month alone.

I will be watching the next 2 crop condition reports before the report on the 12th for clues the USDA will revise their yield production higher. Last week ratings dropped and throw caution to my possible "bumper crop" given favorable weather which you know is unpredictable so is only my "guess" and is no better or worse than anyone else. In 2003 they raised the July 12th yield by 3 BPA. Each BPA projects production/carryover by 85 million bushels. Last 2 reports the USDA has estimated the corn yield to be 158.7 which was down from its February forecast of 161.7. Last year's disappointing yield of 152.8 had something to do with lowering the yield this year due to another wet late start. If we did get a 161.7 yield that would raise the carryout to 1.1 billion bushels, but if yield is more like last year at 153, we would be looking at only 400 million bushels, and the really tight stocks would need to be rationed through higher prices. If we had perfect weather and an "Indian Summer" we could produce another record crop with a yield of 170 BPA and that would leave us with a carryover over 1.8 billion bushels that could easily bring us back to $4.50 corn. This leaves us with quite a range of possibilities that must be considered, and you will not utter the words "unbelievable" if either outcome is realized. This is the reason I say that nothing is bigger than Mother Nature, and she is unpredictable. Common sense and logic also tells me to not bet on shortfall crops, since it seems like one way or the other we produce a crop, and shortfalls are not as common as good crop production.

The other fundamental that is second to production is the funds as you well know. CFTC commitment of traders report on 6/28 showed the funds had liquidated another 50,200 contracts, and the rest of the week they were estimated to have sold another 44,000 that may have dropped their position under 180,000 now.

As I have just said last week, markets tend to move in the middle of a recent range before a report, and the next report is on the 12th, so that might help support the market from here. Thursday's report said there is 350 million bushels more in stocks, and 1.5 million more acres is planted shattered the bull's story. PRC corn growing conditions are favorable now. Soybean planted acreage fell 1.3 million acres below expectations but could not overcome the weakness in corn. Stocks were up 23 million bushels from expectations. Corn was so much more profitable to plant than soybeans that farmers did everything to get it into the ground, and if they were not delayed we could have seen more acres gained to corn and lost from soybeans.

July soybeans left a $.01 gap from Thursday's close at $13.06 ¼ which is friendly. Uptrend line near $13.40 acts as resistance now, but the bulls will need to close over $13.50 to turn the chart bullish and set to test the downtrend line at $13.81. $12.90 should support well if it was retested, but the gap at $12.78 which is also the 2011 low is major support. July beans closed $1.05 ¼ lower on Friday since 2011 started. November closed $.04 higher than the start of the year. Thursday low is solid support at $12.86, and then the gap and low of the year at $12.38. It also needs to get above Thursday's high to change the chart picture bullish.

July corn posted a "double bottom" at $6.15 on Thursday in classic chart form. This is another example of why I base my trade ideas and use my charts for entries and exits not only for a day trade, but long term ideas. In May the market tested the gap and could not fill it, and it produced a rally of $1.61 to a new all time high. Now we tested the low of March near the 2011 low in January, and bounced $53 ¾ so far. It is not coincidence that we double bottomed, but it is always unclear how long the bounce will last, I take it 1 day at a time for more clues. I want to see a higher low and higher high than Friday but I need a higher close too. This would be friendly for Tuesday. Make no mistake, we broke $1.84 ¾ in 3 weeks from a record high and that has caused damage to the chart that tells me that July would do well if it could retest the uptrend line at $7.05 which would also be 50% correction back from the recent low to its high. The gap low in January at $6.08 ½ is major support. December corn posted a huge gap on Friday and did well to close near the high end of the day's range. It would do well to fill the gap left from the report day at $6.20 ½, $6.50 is above there.

UNLESS there is a change in weather patterns, there is no reason for corn to stage more than a recovery rally before the next leg down. Make sure you get ... Subscribe now! I think the fall low will depend on the final corn yield and how much China is willing to buy in relation to our supplies. I am bearish corn and want to sell any rally at a chart resistance. I would trade the numbers without bias on Monday night/Tuesday open outcry but prefer to sell resistance, and risk $.06 in corn and $.08 in soybeans. ... Subscribe now! Most new crop soybean hedges on my book are from $13.80 to $14. The lowest are at $13 from the start of the year when my producers hedging began.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 7 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

May Your Next Trade Be The Best


Howard Tyllas

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

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