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June 2012 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA/NASS Acreage and Stocks Report for 6/29/12

Jun 29, 2012

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USDA/NASS Acreage and Stocks report.

Released June 29, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Corn Planted Acreage Up 5 Percent from 2011 Soybean Acreage Up 1 Percent All Wheat Acreage Up 3 Percent All Cotton Acreage Down 14 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2012 is estimated at 96.4 million acres, up 5 percent from last year and represents the highest planted acreage in the United States since 1937 when an estimated 97.2 million acres were planted. Growers expect to harvest 88.9 million acres for grain, up 6 percent
from last year.

Soybean planted area for 2012 is estimated at 76.1 million acres, up 1 percent from last year and is the third highest on record. Area for harvest, at 75.3 million acres, is up 2 percent from 2011. Record high
planted acreage is estimated in New York, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania, and the planted area in South Dakota ties the previous record high.

All wheat planted area is estimated at 56.0 million acres, up 3 percent from 2011. The 2012 winter wheat planted area, at 41.8 million acres, is up 3 percent from last year and up slightly from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 30.0 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.3 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.5 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2012 is estimated at 12.0 million acres, down 3 percent from 2011. Of this total, about 11.4 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2012 is estimated at 2.20 million acres, up 61 percent from the previous year.

All cotton planted area for 2012 is estimated at 12.6 million acres, 14 percent below last year. Upland area is estimated at 12.4 million acres, down 14 percent from 2011. American Pima area is estimated at 235,000 acres, down 24 percent from 2011.

Released June 29, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Corn Stocks Down 14 Percent from June 2011 Soybean Stocks Up 8 Percent All Wheat Stocks Down 14 Percent Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 3.15 billion bushels, down 14 percent from June 1, 2011. Of the total stocks, 1.48 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 12 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.67 billion bushels, are down 16 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2012 indicated disappearance is 2.87 billion bushels, compared with 2.85 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 667 million bushels, up 8 percent from June 1, 2011. On-farm stocks totaled 179 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 488 million bushels, are up 22 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March - May 2012 quarter totaled 707 million bushels, up 12 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 743 million bushels, down 14 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 112 million bushels, down 14 percent from last year. Off-farm
stocks, at 631 million bushels, are down 14 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2012 indicated disappearance is 457 million bushels, down 19 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Old crop Durum wheat stocks in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 25.6 million bushels, down 28 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 15.2 million bushels, are down 31 percent from June 1, 2011. Off-farm stocks totaled 10.4 million bushels, down 22 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2012 indicated disappearance of 10.2 million bushels is down 51 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Old crop barley stocks in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 60.1 million bushels, down 33 percent from June 1, 2011. On-farm stocks are estimated at 9.67 million bushels, 63 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 50.4 million bushels, are 20 percent below June 1, 2011. The March - May 2012 indicated disappearance is 33.7 million bushels, 31 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Old crop oats stored in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 55.0 million bushels, 19 percent below the stocks on June 1, 2011. Of the total stocks on hand, 11.1 million bushels are stored on farms, 24 percent lower than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 43.9 million bushels, 17 percent below the previous year. Indicated disappearance during March - May 2012 totaled 19.8 million bushels, compared with 18.7 million bushels during the same period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on June 1, 2012 totaled 58.5 million bushels, down 27 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 4.12 million bushels, are up 31 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 54.4 million bushels, are down 29 percent from June 1, 2011. The March - May 2012 indicated disappearance from all positions is 49.6 million bushels, down 46 percent from the same period last year.

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Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 6/21/12

Jun 22, 2012

November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 6/21/12

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Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 36 years.

 

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This report was sent to subscribers on 6/20/12 2:10 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 6/21/12.

 

After the close recap on 6/21/12: My pivot acted as resistance and was 13.91, .03 1/4 (only .02 1/2 in open outcry) from the actual high, and my support was 13.70 1/2, .00 1/2 from the actual low.

 

All charts and numbers for 6/22/12 have already been sent to subscribers at 3.20 pm.

 


November Soybeans

 


14.23
14.00 XX
--------------13.91 Pivot
13.82
13.70 ½
13.57
5 day chart... Up from last week same day
Daily chart .... Sideways
Weekly chart ... Sideways
Monthly chart ....Down 12.63 ½ is the 200 DMA
ATR 29 ½ Ex. Overbought 99%

 

 

For 6/21/12: $14 is major resistance is now pivotal, daily numbers support and resist.

 

In my daily November soybean numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .00 ¾ from the actual high, my support was .05 ¾ (pivot was .03 ½ in open outcry) from the actual low.

 


6/21/12:

 

Grains: 6 of the grain numbers were spot on, 2 were accurate. Is everyone long yet? No not us, I am talking about the rest of the market participants. There are so many things that you could get bullish or bearish about, so unless you are trying to find out the drivers because you are new to the grain markets, all points are useless in the pursuit to make money. I have always thought that the market does its job of with all things considered, and all participants no matter why they take a position, are reflected in the last trade price which is ALWAYS the correct price of what it is worth right now. They have their bets down to reflect what the market will do from the last price compared to what they think it will be in the future. There are all types of participants and they have their reasons for taking a trade; my reason is the chart and the numbers. The past gives me the premise as to what I think the market will do in the future, because all charts are reflecting the facts, so I am basing my approach and trade ideas on facts, not weather forecasts, yield forecasts, demand or anything else that is a guess at best. Professional gamblers and traders do not make bets on guesses, they would not be professional if they did, it is the odds and money management that dictates, and they have enough control to wait for the set up instead of being impatient and take trades with reduced risk reward due to entering at bad trade locations with lower odds.

 

I always reiterate "nobody knows what the market will do (stay away from people who say they do) but you should always know what you are doing and why. In the grain markets at this time, trade is chaotic, and what do you expect when the "fundamentals" are a crap shoot at best. What they do for me is help me with the "what if's" so I can find the larger even off the chart levels to work with.

 

November soybeans proved once again tonight that cheerleading through a major resistance number is like being down 21 to 7 with 4 minutes left in the football game, to bet on the team down 14 points will come back to win because you think they have great potential to do so at any time. Would you take even money bet on that? Certainly not, so what are the odds, 10 to 1 maybe? How many teams in the last 5 years came back to win like that? If it is 10 to every 1 game, that would be true odds, so I would bet it if I got 20 to 1 odds, and not interested even at that 10 to 1..... I want an edge! So what are the odds for the market to get past the resistance on every attempt? One of these times it will go through, maybe this year or next, but it is how you bet it that makes you a trader. I encouraged everyone who called in on Wednesday to buy more put protection and many did so. I want grains to be twice the price they are now, and everyone has a good yield, but I would always protect what the charts say might be needed in the future.

 

All corn and soybean put spreads are now cheap, and if these markets come down you will have missed an opportunity to buy protection cheaply, and you will be paying $05 to $.10 more if the market comes down. Your bet to be long is not buying put protection, but for me it would be hard not to buy some at least because of the USDA next Friday that is a volatile one, especially with all the uncertainty.

 

I would not hesitate to buy the call spreads back if we get above the resistances I have outlined, or move them up, but I would rather try to do that when the market is at a chart support. All new crop options will start to move faster compared to the movement in the underlying futures market since time is getting closer to expiration. I want to continue to trade the numbers without bias and risk $.04 in corn and $.06 in soybeans on any idea using a stop to protect.

 

6/20/12:

 

Grains: Spot on corn numbers except new crop resistance was blown away in open outcry. Soybean support numbers were spot on but resistance was not close. July soybeans rocketed to test the high of last week but at least for now held the rally in check. As far as a one day rally at or near limit, only in March and last October had seen such action, otherwise you need to go back more than a year to find it. $14.65 was the high of last year in August, and $15.12 ½ was the top this year in April, so this is not the place I want to buy it. After the report in May I said soybeans have the best fundamental picture, but the $1.20 beating it took after that friendly report took the heart out of wanting to buy it. Soybeans were at February level two weeks ago, and I noted we broke $2 almost exactly ½ ways down to the $11.25 bottom in December. As you look back my producers took advantage of it in the old crop by getting some upside back, and some took off a little of the new crop (November contract) short call spreads especially when they had more than $1.40 call spreads, most have $1. If July closes above the neckline at $14.50 of the mini head and shoulder bottom, the bulls have every right chart wise to test the 2012 high again. If I was long I would take a profit here, and if bullish I would buy once again above $14.50 down the road, but I expect it to go to a support level again first and it is there I would want to get long.

 

November soybeans were impressive to get a $.01 ½ away from this year's high and the high of last year which makes it a double top year to year. But now a triple top (March, May, and June) this year alone which is what makes it major resistance at $14. Different reasons got it to $14, the last two times it was not enough to get through this tough resistance or since before 2011, but when it does, losing $.06 to try and get a piece of what the last two draw downs produced, is a trade always worth taking. If I was really bullish I would still get out, but I would not sell, and my way of being long then would be to not take the sell signal.

 

2008 is fresh in my mind, and we had a bull market, the weather changed and the market also really was a victim to the collapse of the economy. So the grain market is not a sure thing one way or the other, and you can see for yourself that the pendulum swings in both directions, so take what you can and as always, make sure you control your losses.
 

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

 

The markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, and S&P

 

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

 

If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser:

 

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Howard Tyllas

 

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

 

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance

WASDE Report 6/12/12

Jun 12, 2012

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Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 36 years.

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OILSEEDS: This month's U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 include lower beginning and ending stocks and reduced use. Lower beginning stocks reflect increased export and crush projections for 2011/12. Soybean exports for 2011/12 are raised 20 million bushels to 1.335 billion bushels reflecting increased global import demand, led mainly by higher projected imports for China. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels mostly due to stronger domestic soybean meal use. Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 35 million. With reduced supplies for 2012/13, soybean exports are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million. Soybean crush is also projected lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.

Soybean, meal, and oil price projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month. The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $335 to $365 per ton and 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 470.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. China's soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons due to lower area as producers shift planting decisions toward corn. Brazil's cottonseed production is also reduced due to lower area planted to cotton as world prices have declined in recent weeks. Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for EU-27, increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased sunflowerseed production for EU-27, and reduced cottonseed production for Australia and Egypt. Brazil's 2011/12 soybean production is increased 0.5 million tons to 65.5 million while Argentina soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 41.5 million.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 51 million bushels with reduced carryin and lower forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are lowered 40 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel increase in food use and a 30-million-bushel increase in exports for 2011/12. The increase in 2011/12 food use reflects higher-than-expected flour milling during the January-March quarter as reported by the North American Millers' Association. Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year.

U.S. all wheat production for 2012/13 is projected at 2,234 million bushels, down 11 million, with lower forecast winter wheat production and small reductions in forecast durum wheat production for Arizona and California. Winter wheat production is forecast 10 million bushels lower with reductions for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft White Winter wheat. The largest production declines are in the HRW states of Nebraska and Colorado, but higher production for Oklahoma is partly offsetting. With reduced supplies and higher expected prices, feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 41 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel. This remains well below the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 7.0 million tons with beginning stocks lowered 1.5 million tons and world production expected down 5.5 million tons. Higher 2011/12 global consumption, fueled by increased global trade, reduces carryin for 2012/13. World production for 2012/13 is lowered reflecting reduced crop prospects in several exporting countries including Russia, EU-27, Turkey, and the United States. Russia production is reduced 3.0 million tons due to a continuation of spring dryness in key winter wheat producing areas and indications of crop development problems resulting from winter freeze damage. EU-27 production is reduced 1.0 million tons with reduced acreage in Germany, Poland, and Spain, only partly offset by higher expected yields in France and Bulgaria. Production is also lowered 1.0 million tons for Turkey as winter frost damage and disease problems reduce yields across the central growing areas on the Anatolia Plateau. Output is reduced 0.2 million tons for Syria as yield prospects decline for non-irrigated wheat in the country's northeast.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 4.6 million tons with reduced prospects for wheat feeding and food use. Wheat feeding is lowered for EU-27, Russia, and Turkey. Larger corn supplies and increased corn feeding more than offset the reduction for EU-27. Wheat food use is lowered for India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Increases in food use for Morocco and Turkey are partly offsetting. Global wheat exports are reduced 1.6 million tons with a 2.0-million-ton reduction for Russia and 0.3-million-ton reductions for both Argentina and Turkey. India exports are raised 1.0 million tons as market conditions improve the competitiveness of private exports. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 185.8 million tons, down 2.4 million from last month.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are virtually unchanged as adjustments to 2011/12 balance sheets are largely offsetting and projected 2012/13 production and use are unchanged on the month. Projected 2012/13 season average price ranges for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged.

Adjustments to corn usage for 2011/12 reflect the latest ethanol production and trade data. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2011/12 is projected 50 million bushels higher. Weekly ethanol production has increased since mid-April after gradually declining from the record levels of late December. The higher corn use projection assumes slightly lower ethanol production during the June-August quarter as compared with the same period last year. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as shipments and sales continue to fall off of the pace needed to reach last month's projection. Tight domestic supplies and increased competition, especially from Brazil, are also expected to reduce U.S. export prospects during the summer months. Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are unchanged, as is the 2011/12 season average farm price which remains at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel.

Changes to the 2011/12 balance sheets for sorghum, barley, and oats are driven by the latest trade data and also mostly offsetting. Sorghum exports for 2011/12 are projected 10 million bushels lower, but offset by a 10-million-bushel increase in expected feed and residual use. Projected barley imports are raised 4 million bushels and exports are lowered 3 million bushels boosting ending stocks 7 million bushels. Oats ending stocks are projected 10 million bushels lower with projected imports lowered 15 million bushels and feed and residual use reduced 5 million bushels. Projected 2011/12 farm prices for all three feed grains are unchanged.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.8 million tons higher with increases in corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are increased 1.6 million tons mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 production for Brazil and China. Brazil corn production is raised 2 million bushels for 2011/12. Despite lower reported area for the main season crop, the rapid expansion in area and nearly ideal weather for the second season (safrinha) crop is boosting Brazil's corn production prospects to a record 69 million tons. Much of the expansion in safrinha corn has been in the Central West region, where corn is planted in January and a pronounced dry season typically begins by early May. This year's rainy season extended through early June providing an additional 4 to 6 inches of beneficial rainfall for filling corn. China's 2011/12 corn production is raised 1.0 million tons in line with recent revisions to official government estimates.

World corn production for 2012/13 is increased 4.2 million tons this month with increases in China, EU-27, and FSU-12. China production for 2012/13 is raised 2.0 million tons based on higher reported corn area as land planted to soybeans declines. EU-27 corn production is increased 1.1 million tons mostly on higher area and yields for Hungary. Production is up 0.8 million tons for Russia and 0.3 million tons for Belarus both on higher reported area. World barley production is lowered, however, with a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Turkey and 0.2-million-ton reduction for Syria.

Global 2012/13 coarse grain trade is projected higher this month on increased imports and exports of corn. Corn imports are raised for EU-27 and Indonesia. Corn exports are increased for Russia and Belarus, both reflecting higher expected production and supplies. Higher imports and production support increased corn feeding in EU-27. Higher beginning stocks and production in China boost prospects for feeding, but a partly offsetting reduction in industrial use limits the increase in corn consumption. Russia corn feeding is lowered 0.3 million tons reflecting slower expected year-to-year growth in feed grain consumption with rising feeding efficiencies in pork and poultry production. Global corn consumption is increased 2.4 million tons. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.4 million tons higher. Of the increase, 2.0 million tons are for China and 1.0 million tons are for Brazil.


SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is increased 341,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month. The increase is due to higher beginning stocks and imports from Mexico. Mexico's exports of sugar estimated for 2011/12 and projected for 2012/13 are increased due to higher production for both years. Production data for Mexico's 2011/12 season are nearly complete, while the increase for 2012/13 is based on a favorable growing season since February.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2012 is raised from last month as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets lower beef production. Although remaining below last year, hatchery data are pointing towards smaller declines in eggs set and heavier bird weights are adding to production. Turkey production is also forecast slightly higher, based on recent production data. Pork production is raised on heavier expected carcass weights. USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 29 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year. Beef production is reduced slightly as lower steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets higher dressed weights and higher cow slaughter. Small changes are made to 2013 beef and pork forecasts, largely reflecting higher expected carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged. Offsetting changes are made to 2012 quarterly egg production forecasts but the annual forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are unchanged from last month.

Forecasts for 2012 beef, broiler, and turkey trade are adjusted to reflect first-quarter data. Forecasts for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Pork exports for 2012 are raised from last month on the strength of trade data to date with a slight increase in forecast exports for 2013.

The cattle and turkey price forecasts for 2012 are unchanged from last month, but hog and broiler prices are reduced, reflecting larger production. Egg prices for 2012 are raised as recent prices have been stronger than expected. Prices for 2013 are unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2012 is raised as cow numbers are expected to decline more slowly. The production forecast for 2013 is unchanged. Export forecasts are raised for both 2012 and 2013 on expected strength in cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales. Imports on a skim-solids basis are reduced slightly on lower expected imports of several dairy products.

NDM and whey prices for 2012 are forecast lower than last month on higher production and weaker demand. However, the cheese price is raised at the low end of the range on stronger demand and the butter price range is narrowed. The Class III price forecast is lowered from last month as the weaker whey price more than offsets the slightly higher forecast cheese price and the Class IV price is lowered on the weaker NDM price. The all milk price is forecast at $16.85 to $17.25 per cwt for 2011. Price forecasts for 2012 are unchanged from last month. The all milk price for 2013 remains unchanged from last month at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt.

COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton estimates for 2011/12 and 2012/13 show small revisions in trade, which leave 2012/13 ending stocks unchanged from last month. The 2012/13 production estimate of 17.0 million bales also is unchanged, pending further information about planted area and weather developments. Exports for 2011/12 are raised by 200,000 bales, reflecting recent strong sales and shipments, while exports for 2012/13 are reduced by 200,000 bales, due to lower expected foreign import demand. Domestic mill use is unchanged. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average price received by producers is 60 to 80 cents per pound, 5 cents below last month on each end.

The world 2012/13 cotton projections include lower production, consumption, and trade relative to last month, with beginning and ending stocks projected slightly higher. World production is down 1.4 million bales, as the southern hemisphere producers of Brazil, Australia, and Argentina are expected to make further cuts in area in response to the recent sharp drop in cotton prices. World consumption is reduced about 1.0 million bales, as decreases for China and Thailand are partially offset by an increase for India. With world prices falling, China's reserve floor price will make it increasingly difficult for mills there to be competitive producers of yarn. China's 2012/13 imports also are reduced due mainly to larger estimated beginning stocks, accounting for most of the almost 700,000-bale reduction in world trade. World ending stocks projected at a record 74.5 million bales are raised 1 percent from last month, with China expected to hold 42 percent of the total.

The most significant revisions to the world 2011/12 cotton estimates include an increase of nearly 1.8 million bales in China's imports, reflecting the continued strong pace of deliveries, and corresponding increases in exports for India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, and Malaysia. India's balance sheet also is revised to reflect recent indications of higher consumption; a residual has been added for each year beginning in 2006/07 to offset a deficit in stocks that would otherwise result from the available statistics for production, consumption, and trade.

RICE: A reduced 2011/12 U.S. rice ending stocks forecast results in a tighter supply outlook for 2012/13. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 are reduced 4.5 million cwt to 29.5 million-down 39 percent from the previous year, and the lowest beginning stocks since 2004/05. Production and imports for 2012/13 are unchanged at 183.0 million cwt and 22.0 million, respectively. On the 2012/13 use side, domestic and residual use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 122.0 million because of an expected decline in rice used in the brewing of beer-a trend observed in recent years. Monthly data recently released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury confirm the downward trend in 2011/12. Rice used in the brewing of beer through March is down 11 percent in 2011/12. The 2012/13 export forecast is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 87.0 million because of reduced exportable supplies-all in long-grain rice. U.S. 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 25.5 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month.

Smaller projected 2011/12 U.S. imports along with larger exports reduce 2011/12 ending stocks by 4.5 million cwt. U.S. rice imports for 2011/12 are projected at 20.0 million cwt, down 0.5 million from a month ago based on U.S. Bureau of the Census data through March. The pace of imports has slowed in recent months. Rice exports for 2011/12 are raised 4.0 million cwt to 101.0 million because of a significant pickup in sales and shipments in April and early May, and an increase in food-aid. Rough rice exports for 2011/12 are reduced 4.0 million cwt to 31.0 million based on Bureau of the Census data through April and export sales data through the end of May. Conversely, milled rice exports are raised 8 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis) to 70 million with large shipments to Asia.

Rough rice price forecasts for 2012/13 are unchanged from last month. The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season average farm price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, combined medium- and short-grain rice price is $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt, and the all rice price is $15.30 to $16.30 per cwt. The midpoint of the 2011/12 all rice, long-grain, and combined medium- and short-grain prices are unchanged from a month ago, however, the price range is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range for each.

Global 2012/13 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 466.5 million tons, up less than 100,000 tons from last month. Global 2012/13 exports are raised nearly 1.0 million tons mainly due to an increase for India, now forecast at 7.0 million, up 1.0 million from last month, but down 1.0 million from revised 2011/12. India's 2011/12 exports are raised to a record 8.0 million tons. Import 2012/13 forecasts are raised for Iran and several African countries. Global consumption for 2012/13 is raised 1.0 million tons, primarily due to larger consumption for Iran, Vietnam, and several African countries. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, due primarily to a reduction for India.

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Howard Tyllas

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Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

July Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/31/12

Jun 01, 2012

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These numbers were sent to subscribers on 5/30/12 1:35 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/31/12.

July Corn

After the close recap on 5/31/12: My pivot acted as resistance and was 5.62 1/2, .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 5.53 1/2, .00 1/4 from the actual low.

All charts and numbers for 6/1/12 have already been sent to subscribers at 4:40 pm .

July Corn


5.83 ½
5.71 ¾
-----------5.62 ½ Pivot
5.53 ½ XX Double Bottom
5.44 FG

5 day chart.... Down from last week same day
Daily chart ... Down
Weekly chart ... Down
Monthly chart .... Down 6.52 ½ is the 200 DMA
ATR 20 ½ Ex. Oversold 6%


For 5/31/12: Bracket lines support and resist; daily numbers after that.

In my daily corn numbers on Wednesday; my pivot acted as resistance and was the EXACT actual high; my support was .01 ½ from the actual low.

5/31/12:

Grains: Exact high and spot on support corn numbers, soybean support was spot on and accurate resistance numbers. July soybean downtrend line remains intact and as long as that holds, the bears remain in charge. $13.51 is going to be big, and I give it a 50/50 chance of holding. But any correction to the downtrend line I would prefer to be a seller and stay on the side of this trend. Downtrend line comes in at $14 today, and a close above there would put the bulls back in control and in corrective mode. $13.75 ½ is the pivot of those two parameters.

July corn bracket line provided the exact high, and the $5.55 low of 2011 was jabbed by $.01 ½ just to see what was down there (stops or fresh selling) and recovered to trade higher a few times during the day, but the bears won the battle closing lower. The high and low which were almost perfect at bracket support and resistance lines. I would like to see a rally above the Wednesday high improving the chance for more corrective action. Many times in 2011 we witnessed and took advantage of the fact that most corn breaks produced $.95 draw downs, and Wednesday action did just about that. Chart wise and fundamental wise, if we can bounce it will not look anything like we saw when the funds had more "what if's" in their sail, but guess what, it is June now, rain is expected, and there are no wild fires in the grain belt right now. I have traded for decades, and I have never seen a "perfect crop", there are ALWAYS going to be sad stories going on, along with stories of record yields in other areas.

I have always looked at it as every farm are drops in the bucket, and I trade on what is in the bucket, not the drops that fill it. This logic corresponds with my fundamental attitude, fundamentals are drops in the bucket, and like farm operations, some fill the bucket more than others, but I trade what is in the bucket. The bucket no matter what's inside is the passenger, the price is the driver. Price makes fundamentals as well as fundamentals influence price. You already know what happens when something goes less than cost of production, or too high of a price destroys demand.

December corn downtrend lines are easy resistance levels to trade if we can get to $5.35 and $5.50 now, but unless we can get above $5.50, the bears are in total control. $5.10 was good support this week and last, and if we went below there the bulls are getting ready once again to face the slaughter. First time down there 3 weeks ago produced a $.50 rally, and almost daily that week I did everything but insist to buy more protection which all my producers did whatever they could. $4.99 is Custer's Last Stand.

Since we had a $.95 draw down in and at corn chart support, I would trade the numbers without bias and risk $.04 using a stop to protect any idea. Since the soybeans are nearing resistance, I prefer to take the sell signals but would trade without bias and risk $.06 on any idea using a stop to protect.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 6 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond and Gold.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

 

Howard Tyllas

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance

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