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March 2013 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Report for 3/28/13

Mar 28, 2013

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Corn Stocks Down 10 Percent from March 2012
Soybean Stocks Down 27 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 3 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2013 totaled 5.40 billion bushels, down 10 percent from March 1, 2012. Of the total stocks, 2.67 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 16 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.73 billion bushels, are down 4 percent from a year ago. The December 2012 - February 2013 indicated disappearance is 2.63 billion bushels, compared with 3.62 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2013 totaled 999 million bushels, down 27 percent from March 1, 2012. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 457 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 543 million bushels, are down 34 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the 
December 2012 - February 2013 quarter totaled 967 million bushels, down 3 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2013 totaled 1.23 billion bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 237 million bushels, up 9 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 997 million bushels, are up 2 percent from a year ago. The December 2012 - February 2013 indicated disappearance is 436 million bushels, down 6 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2013 totaled 42.4 million bushels, up 18 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 21.4 million bushels, are up 20 percent from March 1, 2012. Off-farm stocks totaled 21.0 million bushels, up 17 percent from a year ago. The December 2012 - February 2013 indicated disappearance of 18.6 million bushels is up 52 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 2013 totaled 91.4 million bushels, down 15 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 10.9 million bushels, are down 15 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 80.5 million bushels, are down 15 percent from a year earlier. The December 2012 - February 2013 indicated disappearance from all positions is 48.5 million bushels, up 13 percent from the same period last year.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March. Separate surveys are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey that includes over 83,500 operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations as of March 1, 2013. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government program.

The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain storage facilities. This includes 
approximately 8,800 facilities with 10.2 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete.

Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the State and National levels for 
reasonableness, consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports, exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks,


production, utilization, and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of stocks.Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these years will be made after that date.

Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is approximately 2.4 percent for corn, 2.5 percent for soybeans, and 2.7 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 4.8 percent for corn, 5.0 percent for soybeans, and 5.4 percent for all wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats are 16.8, 4.7, and 3.1 percent, respectively.

Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

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Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.


 

WASDE REPORT FOR 3/8/13

Mar 08, 2013

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OILSEEDS:  U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 125 million bushels.  Although soybean export commitments through February exceeded last year's pace, U.S. exports are expected to decline in the months ahead as increased competition from a record South American soybean crop limits additional U.S. sales during the second half of the marketing year.  Soybean crush is also ahead of last year's pace, but is projected to slow in the second half of the marketing year on declining soybean meal exports as competition from South America, especially Argentina, increases with the new-crop harvest.

The projected season-average price range for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel.  Soybean oil prices are forecast at 48.5 to 51.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $425 to $445 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.8 million tons, down slightly from last month as reduced soybean and sunflowerseed production is mostly offset by increased rapeseed and cottonseed production.  Foreign production, projected at 374.1 million tons, accounts for all of the change.  Argentina soybean production is projected at 51.5 million tons, down 1.5 million.  Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects.  China rapeseed production is projected at 13.5 million tons, up 0.9 million based on increased area and yield indicated in recently released official government statistics.  Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia and India, reduced sunflowerseed production for Argentina, and increased palm oil production for Malaysia.  Cottonseed production is increased for China and reduced for Pakistan and Brazil.

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month boosting projected ending stocks by the same amount.  Continued strong competition, particularly from EU-27 and FSU-12, further reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments.  Projected exports for Hard Red Winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels.  Exports are also lowered 10 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively, for White and Hard Red Spring wheat, but raised 15 million bushels for Soft Red Winter wheat.  All-wheat imports are unchanged, but small adjustments are made among the classes.  Trade changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date.  The projected range for the season-average farm price for wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $7.95 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 1.8 million tons with higher production.  India production is increased 1.0 million tons based on the latest revisions by the government of India for the crop harvested nearly a year ago.  EU-27 production is raised 0.5 million tons based on the latest production estimate released by the government of Lithuania.  Production is estimated 0.3 million tons higher for Nepal in line with historical revisions to the country's production series this month.

Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13.  Imports are raised 1.0 million tons for Iran, 0.5 million tons for South Korea, 0.3 million tons for Algeria, and 0.2 million tons each for China and Japan.  Partly offsetting are reductions of 1.0 million tons for Egypt and 0.2 million tons for Kenya.  Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27, 0.5 million tons for Brazil, and 0.3 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting this month's reduction for the United States.  World wheat feed use is increased 1.3 million tons with 0.5-million-ton increases for Australia, Canada, and South Korea, and a 0.1-million-ton increase for Japan outweighing a 0.3-million-ton decrease for Egypt.  Lower expected food use in India, Egypt, and Kenya limit the increase in global wheat consumption.  World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.5 million tons higher with the largest increases for India, Iran, and the United States.  The biggest reductions in ending stocks are for Australia, Egypt, EU-27, Brazil, Canada, and Ukraine.

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged this month as an increase in imports and lower exports support higher expected feed and residual disappearance.  Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of shipments reported through January.  Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed quality wheat.  Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bushels with continued expansion in poultry production and a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum feed and residual use.  Sorghum exports are projected 10 million bushels higher based on the strong pace of sales and shipments.  Smaller trade changes are projected for barley and oats based on shipments to date.

The projected season-average farm prices for corn and sorghum are each lowered 20 cents on the high end of the range to $6.75 to $7.45 per bushel and $6.70 to $7.40 per bushel, respectively.  The projected farm price ranges for barley and oats are narrowed 10 cents on each end to $6.25 to $6.55 per bushel and $3.70 to $3.90 per bushel, respectively.
 
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.0 million tons lower with a 0.8-million-ton decrease in production.  Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Argentina reflecting extended dryness in February that reduced yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn.  South Africa corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as dryness and heat reduce yield prospects in the western areas of the maize belt.  Sorghum production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Australia as excessively high temperatures have reduced harvested area as indicated by the latest government estimates and yield prospects as confirmed by satellite imagery.  India corn production is raised 0.4 million tons as planting progress reports for the winter crop indicate a year-to-year increase in area. 

Global coarse grain exports for 2012/13 are lowered this month mostly reflecting the projected reduction in U.S. corn exports.  World corn feed and residual use is raised with higher expected use in the United States.  Corn feed use is also raised for India and Malaysia.  Corn imports and feeding are lowered for South Korea with higher expected imports of feed quality wheat and increased wheat feeding.  Sorghum imports and feeding are raised for Mexico with the increase in U.S. sorghum exports.  Global coarse grain ending stocks decline 0.6 million tons with small reductions in corn stocks for Brazil, Malaysia, Argentina, and India.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is increased 91,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as higher sugar imports from Mexico more than offset lower production and tariff rate quota (TRQ) imports.  Reduced Florida cane sugar production reflects processors' estimates while lower TRQ imports reflect increased shortfall.  Higher imports from Mexico result from increased production which is based on higher-than-expected sugarcane yields to date.  Sugar use is unchanged for the United States and ending stocks are increased for both the United States and Mexico.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast pork production.  Beef production is raised from last month largely due to heavier expected carcass weights.  Steer and heifer slaughter is reduced for the first quarter, but cow slaughter is raised.  Pork production is reduced based on lower slaughter in the first quarter.  The broiler production forecast is raised as producers are expected to respond to stronger forecast first-half broiler prices and lower projected second-half feed meal prices.  Turkey production is forecast higher on heavier bird weights and slightly higher slaughter.  Egg production is raised based on hatchery data.  Poultry and egg production for 2012 is adjusted to reflect revisions in production data.

The beef export and import forecasts for 2013 are lowered based on slower-than-expected shipments in January.  Pork exports are lowered from last month as export demand has softened.  The broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month.  Changes in estimates for 2012 trade reflect December data.

Cattle prices for 2013 are lowered from last month, reflecting slightly weaker demand for fed cattle into the second quarter of the year.  Hog and broiler price forecasts are unchanged from last month.  Forecast broiler prices are raised in the first half on strong demand, but are reduced in the second half on production increases.  Turkey prices are lowered on greater production.  Egg price forecasts are unchanged.

RICE:  The changes made to the U.S. 2012/13 rice supply and use balances this month are confined to the trade categories and ending stocks.  The 2012/13 all-rice import forecast is raised 0.5 million cwt to 21.5 million, based largely on the pace of imports reflected in the U.S. Bureau of the Census import data through January-all in long-grain rice.  On the use side, the all-rice export forecast is increased 2.0 million cwt to 108.0 million-all in long-grain rice.  The rough rice and milled export (rough-equivalent basis) forecasts are each raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million and 73.0 million, respectively.  Increased export commitments to Iran and Western Hemisphere markets support the increase in the 2012/13 export projection.  Export commitments for 2012/13 through the end of February are up 19 percent from a year ago according to the latest USDA's U.S. Export Sales report.  All rice ending stocks are projected at 29.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million from a month ago-all in long-grain rice.  Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 16.4 million cwt, the lowest stocks since 2003/04.  Medium-/short-grain ending stocks are unchanged at 10.5 million cwt.

The 2012/13 long-grain, season-average price is raised 20 cents per cwt at the midpoint to $14.50, the medium/short grain price is lowered 30 cents per cwt at the midpoint to $15.90, and the all rice season-average price is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt at the midpoint.

Global 2012/13 rice production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all up from a month ago.  World rice production is forecast at a record 468.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from last month, largely due to increases for Cambodia and India.  India's rice crop is projected at 102.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month, but down 4.3 million from record 2011/12.  The increase in India' s crop is due entirely to the larger Kharif rice crop now forecast by the government of India at 90.7 million tons, up 4.5 million from an earlier forecast.  The Rabi rice crop is expected to be down from last year due to late planting and a lower expected average yield.  World consumption is forecast at a record 470.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month, owing mostly to increases for Cambodia, India, and Peru.  The increase in global trade is relatively small.  Global 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 103.3 million tons, up 1.4 million from a month ago, but down 2.2 million from last year.

This month's 2012/13 world cotton estimates show higher production, consumption, and trade, with ending stocks reduced marginally.  World production is raised about 900,000 bales from last month, including a 1.0-million-bale increase in the China crop, based on recent statistical reports for the eastern provinces and on classification data for Xinjiang.  Production also is raised for Uzbekistan, Mexico, and Turkmenistan, but is reduced for Pakistan and Brazil.  Consumption is raised for China, India, and Bangladesh.  World trade is raised 1.5 million bales, due mainly to higher imports by China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.  Exports are raised for India, the United States, Australia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, but are lowered for Pakistan.  Global ending stocks are now forecast at 81.7 million bales. 
 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, and S&P

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

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Howard Tyllas

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

   Tel.1-312-823-9189,  1-702-405-7245

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

Hedging March 2013 Corn & December 2013 Corn and Trade Ideas for 3/6/13

Mar 07, 2013

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Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 37 years.

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This report was sent to subscribers on 3/5/13 3:20 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 3/6/13.

March 2013 Corn

After the close recap on 3/6/13: My pivot acted as resistance and was 7.33, .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 7.04, .03 3/4from the actual low.

December 2013 Corn

After the close recap on 3/6/13: My pivot acted as resistance and was 5.51 3/4, .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 5.45 1/4, .01 1/4 from the actual low.

All charts and numbers for 3/7/13 have already been sent to subscribers at 3:45 pm.

 March 2013 Corn                                             

        
7.46 ¼ XX                   2013 High   
7.42             

-----------7.33               Pivotal Downtrend Line     

                                                                                                                         
7.24                                                  
7.14                              near the 200 DMA                          
7.04                         near Downtrend Line (now support)                         
5 day chart....         Up from last week same day                                                            
Daily chart   ...      Sideways                           
Weekly chart ...     Sideways                 
Monthly chart ....   Sideways       7.17 ¾ is the 200 DMA
ATR 11 ¼                                    Ex. Overbought 96%     

 

For 3/6/13: 200 DMA is support at $7.17 ¾, $7.46 ¼ the 2013 high is resistance, the downtrend line is now pivotal.        

In my daily March corn numbers on Tuesday my resistance was .01 ½ from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .01 from the actual low.       

December 2013 Corn       

              Use the same numbers as used on 3/5/13                           
5.62 ½                                            
5.58 ¼                                            
------------5.51 ¾              Pivot                                       
5.45 ¼ 
5.40 ½                                    

                                    
5 day chart....      Down from last week same day                                                               
Daily chart   ...    Down                      
Weekly chart ...  Down                     
Monthly chart ...Sideways             6.05 is the 200 DMA
ATR 8                                                    Balanced 46%    
 

for 3/6/13: I continue to say "bracket line at $5.47 is key support, last week's high resists".    

Chart shows us that last year we traded between $5.60 and $5.40 before working lower when the weather was promising.  
  
In my daily December 2013 corn numbers on Tuesday my resistance was .03 ½ from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .02 ¾ (.00 ½ in open outcry) from the actual low.                                              
     
3/6/13:

Grains: Non-commercial corn position was a net short 4,600 contracts in Friday's CFTC report, the first time since June and the 2nd time since 2010 that they were short. Imagine if they wanted to sell these markets. This also means that if they wanted to put on half the position they had on last year, we could be testing the high in the old crop, and $6.08 ¾ in the December contract, the trouble is they are not, there is no reason for them to be the only ones to bid the market up on hopes for a weather market. They were left holding the bag before, and they know what it is like to hold onto a position when the fundamentals and charts become stale to their ideas. With their liquidation though, the market is more balanced but vulnerable to a rally if they want to own grains once again. So why are they not long right now? December corn is where the new crop was at last year, but last year the spot month did not start to rally until 6/1/2012 and that was from $5.50, not over $7 like now. PRICE is the difference, and defending $7 is not anything like protecting $5.50 to $6.

So I do not look for the funds to help or participate in selling grains, and keep in mind that they only need a good weather reason or much lower prices to want to start to buy once again. But I look for the producers to be the main driver of sales, and they do not look interested in selling here. It is questionable at what price higher will they be willing to sell, but there is no question that if the market keeps going down they will be "forced" to sell, not everybody has deep pockets or the appetite or willingness to endure a true bear market if the weather in fact turns out to be good. 

The US maps are taking away key talking points from the bulls about the disaster that will take place this year due to dryness. Sure, it's not perfect out west, but places like IL and IN are ready for a bumper crop if the rains are timely, because dryness is not a concern at this time. They suffered in the drought; they are ready to rebound significantly from last year. It is a long time between now and June, and a couple of good rain events would wipe out most of the drought. In good years, not every state produces an average trend yield, so pointing to the growing areas that are dry, and ignoring all the areas that are looking good, is someone who only looks to the upside. Anything can happen good or bad for the coming year crop, but only the bulls focus is on shortfall in production and not an average trend yield. I have taught you to keep the "what if" open for both the up and downside, and to be in the reality of the last trade price, and look for parameters that have high probabilities to contain the market. Looking for $10 corn is NOT a probability, not a possibility, but a pipedream. Before I could even mention $10, the market would need to get above the all time high of $8.49 first, that is in reality. Notice how the downtrend provided strong resistance and kept the market from going higher for now. 

There is nothing I would like more right now, than to take profits and buy back the $7.20/$8.20 call spreads, but unless the market can get above at least $5.62, there is no reason to. Same thing with rolling down the $6.50 puts, but no reason to unless the market can get away from where most everyone's protection... Subscribe Now!

Soybeans are having trouble above $15, which has been obvious since 11/2/2012. The March/May spread settled at $.30, highest since late November but nowhere near the high of about $1.00 made in August 2012. I would never buy it here, but would consider buying it higher when $15 becomes support, not when $15 is resistance. I would buy it lower when it comes down to a support, or above $15 when at a support.

"I remain bearish both corn and soybeans as time goes on. I would continue to day trade the market without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".                             

3/5/13:

Grains: All producers I talk to are telling me all they hear and read is that corn will rally in the spring or summer and to wait until then to market their corn. I do not have a problem when the "analysts" make predictions, the big problem I have is they never have a game plan if the market does the opposite of what they thought. This should prove to you that although they might be analysts, they ARE NOT TRADERS. My long term subscribers already have learned that you do not make money making predictions; you make money by selling it (short) for more than you buy it back for, or buy it (long) and sell it for more. I have been observing fundamentals and how the futures respond to them for nearly 40 years, and there is nothing more that I like than to make money in the market and be totally wrong what I thought about the fundamentals. I expect to make money when I am right; I really like to make money when I am wrong because of the strategies I use. I am the casino getting the odds, and never want to be the player who feels lucky and needs to beat the odds.

It must be easy for them to be so random, expecting something even if not realized like a weather prediction, for the market to rally especially during pollination. But they must not realize that EVERYONE knows that, and that equates to that already being factored into the current prices. It must be comforting to know that all they might lose is a subscriber, but the poor farmer is that way because they listened to services like those. The word hedge means to take risk off the table, what do you call "wait for higher prices"? We are all wrong many times per year, losing is as much a part of this game as any, but all games must have the same controls when gambling, so like me make sure you have the odds in your favor, do not risk too much on any idea, and make sure the risk is worth the reward. Do you see any of what I just said in any of the plans from these "experts"? What more do you need to know than that to want to become "self directed"!

March contracts are punishing the shorts as I have said was what the market has been doing for a long time now, and I believe will continue as time goes on. I would expect the cash market as well as the "spot month" in this case the March contracts, to continue to do the job of rationing the old crop, but not in the futures market that is trying to balance the tight situation in the old crop versus a possible burdensome supply situation with a trend yield crop this year. SA will be coming "online" soon and why the May contracts are taking a beating compared to the March contracts. March soybeans settled $.28 ¼ over the May contract, March corn settled $.19 ¾ over the May, so as the market looks good in the final days of the March contracts, down the road of time the prices are not as promising.

On 2/1/13 May corn was $.02 over the March contract which had a high that day of $7.46 ¼. Since then the March and May got down to $6.78. The pivot is $7.12 about Mondays high. That is the sideways range I       expect May corn to trade in the next 4 weeks.

December corn is in trouble, but the bulls keep looking for help from the old crop, and help is not on the way, if anything, it's delaying lower prices. Monday posted the 5th week in a row of a lower low for the week. I continue to say what I have said for a long time, the chart looks weak and the "pin action" (as in bowling) feels even worse. Knowing that farmers are holding back on sales makes being long feel vulnerable. No hurry for the shorts to "sell off" the market right now, and they look at it like selling options with time decay, and as time proves no threat to the upside prices will decay, so keep the price as high as possible making sales until there are no more willing buyers, and then the "beat down" ensues, panic sets in, and capitulation happens before the dust starts to settle, and THEN I want to buy it!

What I have proved to you time and again over the years, I am not a part of the herd, rather the cheetah in the tall grass waiting for "easy prey". This equates to when at a major resistance the bulls are "cheer leading" for higher prices, the emotions of already having made money and the idea that they will make much more, keeps them from taking profits. No problem if they have some kind of plan to protect losses if the resistance is not broken, but the emotion of greed keeps them from doing that, because they would be more concerned what the market will do if they get out, rather than being focused on risk/reward and chart location. In time no matter day, week, or months, when the bulls cannot succeed in getting above the resistance, they all head for the door "at once" and it is very hard to get out. I want to be the one who sells the resistance and risk little to see if it holds, and THEN want the funds and "herd" to make a run with me, but when we are nearing supports I start to break away from the herd, stand in the tall grass, and wait for the next easy prey. Sometimes I miss and lose $.06, but I go back to the tall grass instead of running with the herd and trying to catch something along the way.  

Seems like most traders have the need to make every penny of every move, and focused on what they could have made rather than what they are making, the old glass half full half empty, but I have insisted and you have learned, that mindset and approach is a big factor in successful trading. Half empty focuses on all or nothing, and that just does not work in gambling, and if you try it you will only need to lose once because you are "all in". Professional gamblers (and traders) know exactly what they have at risk at all times, and never put too many eggs in one basket, and emotions are NEVER in play. I say "every trade is just a bet, bet like a professional, act like a casino, and never be a player"!        
     
Last week every day we were near $5.58 in December corn and bulls were looking for maybe $.13 more at my key resistance, and watched it slip to new lows of $5.45 ¼ instead. I think the market is in the "hope" stage, and that is like a break in the armor, but further weakness should be seen. If the market is looking at soybeans for help, it has not worked so far.  

As we watch March soybeans knock at the $15 door, our May $14.70 put spreads make producers feel comfortable knowing they have that locked in. They will be more than willing to...  

As long as November is above $12.55 it has a chance to rally, and that could coat tail the old crop contract where corn will not, but the chart is bearish and I would extend protection on any rally.

"I remain bearish both corn and soybeans as time goes on. I would continue to day trade the market without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".                             

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