Sep 30, 2014
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September 2013 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Report for 9/30/13

Sep 30, 2013

 

 

Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:


Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account. 
Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of My Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas 
 

Corn Stocks Down 17 Percent from September 2012
Soybean Stocks Down 17 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 12 Percent

Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 824 million bushels, down 17 percent from 
September 1, 2012. Of the total stocks, 275 million bushels are stored on farms, down 12 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 549 million bushels, are down 19 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 1.94 billion bushels, compared with 2.16 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 141 million bushels, down 17 percent from September 1, 2012. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 39.6 million bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 101 million bushels, are down 23 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2013 totaled 294 million bushels, down 41 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2012 soybean production is revised to 3.03 billion bushels, up 18.6 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged, but harvested area is revised up 60,000 acres to 76.2 million acres. The 2012 yield, at 39.8 bushels per acre, is up 0.2 bushel from the previous estimate. A table with 2012 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 17 of this report.

All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 1.85 billion bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 547 million bushels, down 5 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.31 billion bushels, are down 15 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 991 million bushels, up 10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 66.8 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 42.4 million bushels, are down 3 percent from September 1, 2012. Off-farm stocks totaled 24.4 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance of 17.8 million bushels is down 55 percent from the same period a year earlier.2 Grain Stocks (September 2013)

Barley stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 196 million bushels, down slightly from September 1, 2012. On-farm stocks are estimated at 106 million bushels, 5 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 90.8 million bushels, are 7 percent above September 2012. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 99.0 million bushels, 19 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 63.4 million bushels, 25 percent below the stocks on 
September 1, 2012. Of the total stocks on hand, 37.0 million bushels are stored on farms, 9 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 26.4 million bushels, 48 percent below the previous year. Indicated disappearance during June - August 2013 totaled 38.9 million bushels, compared with 34.0 million bushels during the same period a year ago.

Old crop grain sorghum stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 15.0 million bushels, down 34 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 602,000 bushels, are down 48 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 14.4 million bushels, are down 34 percent from September 1, 2012. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance from all positions is 26.1 million bushels, down 27 percent from the same period a year ago.

Old crop sunflower stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 339 million pounds, up 78 percent from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 45.1 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 294 million pounds. Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 276 million pounds; of this total, 37.0 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 239 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 63.2 million pounds, with 8.10 million pounds stored on the farm and 55.1 million pounds stored off the farm.


Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)


Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.


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Howard Tyllas 
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service! 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

   Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245

 


Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

Hedging December 2013 & 2014 Corn for 9/20/13

Sep 20, 2013

 Hedging December 2014 Corn & December 2013 Corn for 9/20/13


 

Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:


Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account. 
Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of My Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas 
 


This report was sent to subscribers on 9/19/13 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 9/20/13.


December 2014 Corn


After the close recap on 9/20/13: My pivot acted as resistance and was 4.97 3/4, .00 1/2 from the actual high, and my support was 4.91 1/2, .01 3/4 from the actual low.

December 2013


After the close recap on 9/20/13: My pivot acted as resistance and was 4.59 1/2, .00 1/2 from the actual high, and my support was 4.45 3/4, .04 3/4 from the actual low.


All charts and numbers for 9/23/13 have already been sent to subscribers at 2:30 pm. 

 Numbers for 9/20/13 were:

December 2014 Corn

5.11 ½ FG            
5.05 ¼ FG            
5.04             
-------------4.97 ¾        Pivot     
4.91 ½                          
4.83 ½                         2013 Low                                                                                                            
 
5 day chart....     Down from last week same day         
Daily chart ...     Sideways   
Weekly chart...  Down         
Monthly chart...Down                     5.45 is the 200 DMA
ATR 9 ½                                                    Oversold 34%
   

 

For 9/20/13: I continue to say "Downtrend Line near $5.17 resists, 2013 low at $4.83 ½ supports". $5.04 ¼ is the pivot (now resistance) of those two numbers.      
   

New low for the run and closed higher bodes well for another up day on Thurs. Indeed it did.                           

In my daily December 2014 corn numbers on Thursday my resistance was .00 ¼ from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .01 ¾ from the actual low.                                                                      

 December 2013 Corn  

                           
4.68 ½                             
4.63 ¼                             
-------------4.59 ½        Pivot         
4.55 ½                            
4.45 ¾                         2013 Low  
4.30 FG 


5 day chart....      Down from last week same day                                                                  
Daily chart   ...    Sideways                               
Weekly chart ...  Down                      
Monthly chart ...Down               5.39 is the 200 DMA
ATR 11                                             Oversold 34%
    

 

For 9/20/13: I continue to say "$4.85 is strong resistance (near new downtrend line). The 2013 low supports".      
New low for the run and closed higher bodes well for another up day on Thurs. Indeed it did.                          

In my daily December 2013 corn numbers on Thursday my resistance was the EXACT actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .01 from the actual low.                                                                       
         
2012 low was $5.11 FG, 2011 low was $5.10 (now resistance), and 2010 it was $4.           
        

 9/20/13:

Grains: Soybeans opened on the high and worked its way lower throughout the day, and only bouncing off the key gap support that has yet to be filled. I know you read from everyone that the gap was filled at $13.31 ¼, but as I have taught you the gap is the settlement that created the gap not the low of the day it gapped higher. Filled the gap for me is actually filling the gap by trading the actual price. 40 years of personally charting myself, I have found without a doubt in my mind the gap is settlement and works much better for me year in and year out. 

What is important is the fact soybeans have had good news fundamentally, but failed to hold its rally. Only the funds know if they are going to buy more contracts and bid the market higher, but the price action tells me the bulls are losing their stomach for pressing the upside as we get closer to harvest. Maybe farmers are looking at the current price and realize that we have only been above $13.30 the last 4 weeks, and a few months last year during the drought, and the contract high made then was $14.09 ¾, was just tested 3 weeks in a row, and we backed off and have held the gap support since then. We know there are sellers at $14 no matter the reason it gets up there. We sold $14 or improved our hedge every time, because you have learned not to "cheer lead" the market higher where you should be selling it. Near the gap support of $13.28 we improve our upside, and for no other reason but to sell once again if it can make another run to $14. If not, we always keep this kind of idea cheap, for $.10 or less, and have a known risk. 

No matter if I think I know the fundamentals, or the last 2 years where I have clearly have said that fundamentals are a fool's game when the "top 10 analysts" cannot agree within reason of each other, and seem to adjust their predictions more on the price action. Are they still talking $10 corn? Are they still recommending not selling it under $5.50 and throwing it into the bin until 2014, like that is when the rabbit will come out of the hat? Price is always the most important factor, because no matter the reason, it gives you or takes your money. Since last September I have been bearish soybeans and corn, and have been 100% hedged since September 2012 at $6.50 for December 2013 corn, and $13.40 November 2013 soybeans. When soybeans were making lows for 2013, we bought back call spreads that we sold and took profits leaving only pennies on the table, and rolled down put spreads taking profits there too, and by doing so we got some of our upside back. It did not matter if you were bearish like me, or bullish, we were able to sell November 2013 $14.50 calls for $.30+ and the $15 calls for $.20, and would still be happy if we "lost/cash sell" it at that price. We are basically long above $13.60 now, and protected all the way down to at least $11.40. The best part is that YOU are in control, not me; you reflect your appetite for risk, and can reflect your bullishness or bearishness.

Control is what it is all about. You cannot control the market but you can and must control what you do. You have learned through my simple strategy, which you can control what downside you want to protect, and what upside you seek. You learned options are rights, not obligations, and so you have the right to morph your position when need be. You know exactly what to expect when you look at your position, you understand fully where you are participating in the market, and what prices you are not. The unhedged out there have absolutely no control, they will either be victims of their own inaction and the market continues lower, or rewarded because the market rallies. Trouble with that is, they never seem to sell it when higher either, it either gets to their objective and they do little, or they do nothing and move the goalposts farther away. Stress, and the long road back up, is not helped by bullish talking points. My charts lead our hedge which is based on price, but my bearish talking points have always been that the more the farmers hold onto their grain, the more bearish it is in the longer term, and it is bearish when the bull's main fundamental is based on continued production shortfalls.    

Nobody knows production, but each of us is entitled to a guess, so my guess is the same as last year, when every one of my producers went into their fields the day before combining and made a guess, and every one of them was pleasantly surprised with more BPA. I believe it will be the same this year. I continue to be bearish, and with decent production in SA I will continue to be. With a good growing season in the US next year, I will continue to be bearish until much lower price levels are seen.

I continue to recommend getting out of the put spreads that have captured all but a few cents of its premium, because that last $.04 is all you get. It can do much more harm than good, and there is only 9 weeks remaining until the December options expire, so this spread will move slowly for you, but quickly against you. I still recommend if you need or want more protection beside your insurance, buying the $4.60/$4.30 spread instead. It settled at $.11 ½ but has $.18 ½ to be captured. You have different odds, but much less risk and more reward. This totally depends on you and if you still need to hedge. All who started last year have already removed their corn hedge and have $1.10 or more in their pockets. Now it is revenue insurance that protects, no reason not to take the hedge off. 

We are also 100% hedged 2014 corn and soybeans, but some of my producers have yet to do any, half have hedged 100%. Everyone is self directed and in control, I am here to answer any question on futures or its options. All you need to look at is this year's performance on hedging from the experts and ask yourself, do I want to continue to listen to more of what got me into this position? Could you do worse than them? If the answer is yes, that means you are 100% unhedged, or should I say, you have more unhedged than they do. I was brought up to try to learn what I could about something before I "wager" my money on it. That includes opening a business or buying anything to sell at a profit. Take responsibility in what you do, and the most important thing to a producer is how they control risk as they seek higher prices and a better basis. Anyone who was seeking higher corn prices and watched it go to $6 as they were trying to sell it for $7 is one thing and I could have been one of them, but to do NOTHING and let it go to $4.60 is ridiculous and incompetent if your job was to secure income for the farm.

I continue to say if you are not 100% hedged, get a line in the sand by doing so. 5 weeks from today the November options expire, and 9 weeks from today the December options. October 11 report is in position to be a mover and shaker, so adjust your positions by then, and should get out of any corn put spread more than $.30 by then.     

I continue to say "I am bearish longer term, but would day trade without bias risking $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".     

9/19/13:

Grains: Soybean bracket line was perfect support, and the gap has yet to be filled. It does not surprise me that the line has held the last 4 weeks, but the gap from Friday at $13.82 is now the objective of the next rally. Gap at $13.28 supports, gap at $13.82 resists, and the pivot of those two numbers is $13.55. Only a close above the contract high would signal higher prices to come, but until then that price is major resistance. On the other hand, if $13.28 goes I would look for the next strong support at $12.80. What drives the market to those prices is irrelevant to me, what is important is the fact it is at an extreme and I can take advantage of it cheaply. The price gives or takes away money from your pocket, and the fundamentals might be factual but does not help discover what the price is or will be in the future.

Does not take much to move the market on this low volume, but the market is not close to trading its ATR and that speaks for itself. The bull case comes down to production shortfalls, and it is on their shoulders to prove. I do not like the fact that the funds have a big chunk of the bull position in soybeans, and it bothers me that farmers are holding on to their grain that eventually no matter the price must be sold in the future. To me it is really foolish to only look at the reward you seek and make that a priority, instead of the priority of locking in some protection as you seek higher prices. That not only goes for hedging, but risks must be controlled in speculation too.

Soybean action is still decent, but it looks more vulnerable to further downside with fund liquidation. Corn looks terrible, and the "pin action" in there is pathetic at best. December corn bulls can look for a retest of $4.75, but it would only be a corrective action before the low will be tested once again. I am looking at the lows to be taken out as we get closer to harvest, but with bullish news yesterday and the failure to close higher, tells me the market is weak and could make new lows sooner rather than later. Stock market fever takes away from the commodity play, and unless we get a shortfall in SA, money will go away from the grain market. Speculators and funds love to play the long side, and with those players not interested in trading a sideways to lower grain market, that is not good for the bulls that remain.

Make sure if you have put spreads nearing full value, that you do not let the market get above $4.75 without exiting some of your spreads. If you get out here you could stay in the rest above $4.75, but if it got above the downtrend line at $4.85 I would be exiting half of what I have. If you need the put spreads for protection I would keep them, but if you have revenue insurance then I would only have a $.30 $4.60/$4.30 put spread that settled at $.12 ½. Risk that to get $.17 ½ minus commissions, and let the insurance do the rest if this applies to you. This allows you risk little and are protected nicely until harvest. Since there is not much time until expiration, the slightest rally will make it cheap, and as it gets "in the money" it appreciates quickly.

2014 is not going away, and everyone who hedged already is not concerned with it right now, and need only worry about the crop coming out of the ground. Imagine, if others are not fully hedged in 2013, chances are not much was done for 2014 too, so if the toothache of 2013 subsides, then they will feel the pain coming on another tooth that could really hurt in 2014. You know what it was like in the past when you watched yourself unhedged completely and the market keeps going down, and you know what it is like to be fully hedged and the market rallied and you made more money, as well as this year when you locked in protection and income already, have next year hedged too, and really relaxed no matter when the market rallied, or when we went down. The strategy allows you the ability to control emotions and think more clearly, and the most important aspect of a hedge, protecting income.

Lastly, always remember what you do in your hedge, whatever your position is, it is for EXPIRATION, so imagine what your position will do if we are $.50 higher or $.50 lower from here, or any price in between. Whatever you do, and whenever you adjust it, it is for expiration, not what the market will do in a week or a month. Be honest, and write down the price you think we will be at 1 week from today, 1 month from today, and at option expiration, and whenever your thoughts change, write it down below your last prediction. You will see how often you change your thoughts and ideas, and if your position reflects what you think. Keep it real. When you write down what you think the futures will be, it is like betting before the race or game begins, anything else is like an old lady (no disrespect intended) at the race track and tells you she knew the horse was going to win, but bet only $5 on that horse, and $25 on another horse in the race too. Just like a market reporter, they tell you what happened after the fact. Hedging and trading the future needs to predict before, not after the fact.

My service has been hedged for 2014 for 6 months now, but unhedged producers should have a plan and not let the market go down more than it already has. Have a plan, whatever it is, and execute it.  

I continue to say "Look at buying back short calls which are getting cheap now, and resell if it can rally. I am bearish longer term, but would day trade without bias risking $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".     

9/18/13:

Grains: FSA cutting acreage this morning was a bullish factor that sent prices sharply higher in open outcry, but it did not take long for the market to take advantage of the rally to sell the market. This resulted in the market coming down to test support, and totally disregarded the "news" of lower production. This is another example of what I say year in and out; it does not matter what made the market rally or breakdown, I just want to take advantage of it. Buying today might have seemed like a good idea, but in a few hours you were losing greatly if you did not use a stop or known risk strategy. So you bought into the idea that there is less grain coming then thought, and absolutely nothing changed in 2 hours except one thing, the price! So how did the bullish fundamental help you to make money or improve your hedge? Did it reduce your risk? Was the market wrong for not closing higher? Remember this, the market is NEVER wrong! It does not read headlines, and it need not trade in accordance with its underlying fundamentals.

The market is a vehicle for price discovery, and the market will swing past its "fair value" both to the up and downside as well. That is where real value for me is. When things are at prices that have not proven its sustainability, this is where I can risk the least and make the most, and if I buy time and control risk with an option strategy, then I am in a position that is unemotional, and has the time for the chart to prove my idea right or wrong.   

Everyone else can only talk fundamentals because that is an "opinion", but it seems like they really do not have much skill in participating in the market. I would talk fundamentals if it could help, but instead I teach you how to trade or hedge the market without any knowledge fundamentally or not. I am teaching you to be self directed, what makes you think you cannot earn more than any broker or service? Let us face the facts, when hedge services are not 100% hedged long ago, and instead on concentrating on hedging what is still needed, they recommend buying call spreads, or worse, selling a put to buy a call, so how is that reducing risk (hedging) when you are buying the upside? Is this was for a speculator it would be one thing, but for a producer it adds risk not take it away. Seems like that they are more worried in hedging and the market rallies, than worrying about losing more money in a market going down. But the job of a hedge is to protect the downside so you do not worry about losing more of your income. Making more money is one thing, but losing money is another.

Look at the reality of the task, if it was easy everyone would be trading for a living, but yet in my 40 years I am hard pressed to say 1 out of 100 people make money trading. One or two years do not prove success, but you are on the right road. It only takes one idea and loss of control to bankrupt you. Discipline must be in control and can never be neglected. Let me compare it to the real world of sports. Millions dream of making it to the pros. You are a star in high school, you play 4 years in college and make it to the pros, which mean you are now playing amongst the best in the world, and even if you are "rookie of the year" you have so much more to learn playing on a professional level. This is what experience does, gives you wisdom. Otherwise, you hit the wall; you cannot do better no matter how hard you try. What I am trying to say, is that out of millions that play sports on various levels, only the cream of the crop, the best of the best, can make it on the professional level. Professional, means making money from what you do, and this applies to trading. You can trade like you are going to Vegas, on allocated money to trading, or betting football, or stocks, or whatever, its taking part of your disposable income on a game of chance. People who make a living trading can call themselves professional, but just like in sports, if your game starts to decline your days are numbered.

So what makes you think you can make it to the pros? And if I were a producer and looked at how much money your peers or services that you went along with THEIR ideas, made their risk YOUR own, I do not think if you were self directed, not listened or read anything, and just looked at the price and said I will hedge $1.00 higher or $.50 lower but I will put a line in the sand, you could not do any worse even if you tried. We hedged December 2013 corn at $6.50 last year, and soybeans at $13.20, so the unhedged lost $2 going after a random price they said corn is worth. They already could have locked in a high income, instead now they are victims of their own inaction. Yes, soybeans are a little higher than where we hedged, but we already took advantage of the rally by adding income. The difference is like in corn, if it goes down we have some protection. My producers and subscribers have learned how to use charts as a roadmap, learned how to control risk, learned the proper way to use options for hedging, and are now self directed. Now you are a rookie in the pros. Every year you get better. New subscribers are learning, but do not take too much time getting the basics.     

Talk about fundamentals now, I'll leave that to the others who trade off that. I continue to say "Look at buying back short calls which are getting cheap now, and resell if it can rally. I am bearish longer term, but would day trade without bias risking $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea". 


Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)


Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.


$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $199.00 monthly 


If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser: 
 
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=GD5H5ZZLQD2V2
 
Howard Tyllas 
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service! 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

   Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245

 


Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

WASDE Report 9/12/13

Sep 12, 2013

 Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 

Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account. 

Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 37 years.

 

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of My Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas 

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.2 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast.  Soybean production for 2013/14 is forecast at 3.255 billion bushels, down 165 million due to lower harvested area and yields.  Harvested area is forecast at 76.4 million acres, down 0.5 million from the July projection.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 42.6 bushels per acre is 1.9 bushels below last month’s projection but 3 bushels above last year’s drought-reduced yield.  Soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected 5 percent below last month based on the lower production forecast.  With reduced supplies and higher prices, U.S. soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 1.385 billion.  Lower U.S. exports will be mostly offset by increases for South America, especially Argentina.  Soybean crush is also lowered as higher prices reduce prospective exports for soybean meal.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 75 million from last month.

U.S. soybean balance sheet changes for 2012/13 include increased imports, reduced exports, and increased crush.  Imports are raised 10 million bushels to 35 million based on strong shipments from South America.  Exports are reduced 15 million to 1.315 billion bushels reflecting exceptionally low shipments in recent weeks and revised export data for September through December 2012 from the U.S. Department of Commerce.  Crush is increased 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion to account for increased soybean meal exports.  Soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 125 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $10.35 to $12.35 per bushel, up 60 cents on both ends.  Soybean meal prices are forecast at $305 to $345, up 15 dollars at the midpoint.  Soybean oil prices are forecast at 44 to 48 cents per pound, down 3 cents at the midpoint reflecting the sharp drop in futures contract prices in the past month.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 493.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month.  Reductions for soybeans and cottonseed are offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and palm kernel production.  Lower soybean production projected for the United States is partly offset by an increase for India where higher harvested area more than offsets reduced yields caused by excessive July rainfall.  Rapeseed production is raised in several countries including Canada and the European Union, where abundant moisture and favorable temperatures in July helped to boost yield prospects.  Rapeseed production forecasts are also raised for China and Ukraine.  Sunflowerseed production is also raised for the European Union and Ukraine.  Global peanut production is raised this month reflecting updated historical data and forecasts for several countries in Africa.  Cottonseed changes include reduced production for China and the United States and an increase for Pakistan.

Reduced global soybean production is only partly offset by lower crush leaving 2013/14 global soybean ending stocks down 1.9 million tons at 72.3 million.  Global soybean stocks remain record high despite this month’s reduction.

 

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month as small increases for Soft Red Winter wheat and Durum are mostly offset by decreases for White, Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat.  U.S. wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 25 million bushels reflecting continued strong early season sales and an increased outlook for China imports.  Despite larger expected crops in several major exporting countries, strong early season demand and higher projected world imports and consumption also boost prospects for U.S. shipments.  Ending stocks are projected 25 million bushels lower.  The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint to $6.40 to $7.60 per bushel.  Despite the tighter domestic balance sheet, larger world wheat supplies and lower-than-expected prices reported to date reduce prospects for the weighted average farm price.

Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 7.5 million tons with increases in production for several of the world’s largest exporters pushing world production to a record 705.4 million tons.  Production is raised 2.8 million tons for the European Union with the biggest increases for Spain, France, and Germany, and smaller increases for Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary.  Production is raised 2.5 million tons for Kazakhstan where abundant spring and summer rainfall is supporting prospects for strong yields, much as in the adjoining spring wheat areas of Russia.  Ukraine production is raised 2.0 million tons based on the latest harvest results.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Canada as favorable soil moisture and a lack of heat stress across the western Prairies support higher yield prospects.  India production is raised 0.5 million tons based on the latest government assessment.  Turkey production is raised 0.4 million tons for wheat reflecting a favorable growing season throughout the region.  

Partly offsetting this month’s production increases are reductions in South America where crops will not be harvested until late 2013.  Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina based on lower reported seedings.  Brazil production is lowered 0.3 million tons reflecting the late July freeze event that appears to have damaged developing wheat in limited areas of southern Brazil.

 Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is raised 6.9 million tons with increases in wheat feeding projected for a number of countries and higher food use expected for India and Iran.  Feed use is raised again this month for China with higher projected imports.  Feed use is also increased for the European Union, Syria, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Morocco.  Wheat feeding is lowered for Thailand and Vietnam with lower imports projected for both countries.  Imports are raised for Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and Turkey.  Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 4.9 million tons with increases for Kazakhstan, the European Union, Ukraine, and Canada totaling 7.0 million tons.  Exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil with reduced production prospects.  India exports are also lowered as relatively high internal prices limit export opportunities.  Rising world supplies reduce prices and support global consumption growth, thereby limiting the increase in projected 2013/14 global wheat ending stocks to 0.6 million tons.

 

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2013/14 U.S. feed grain supplies are reduced this month with lower forecast production for corn and sorghum.  Corn production for 2013/14 is lowered 187 million bushels to 13.8 billion.  The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 154.4 bushels per acre, is down 2.1 bushels from last month’s projection.  Sorghum production is forecast 36 million bushels lower with the forecast yield 5.9 bushels per acre below last month’s projection.  

Corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are projected 10 million bushels lower with a 15-million-bushel increase in 2012/13 exports only partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports.  Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 50 million bushels this month with the smaller crop.  Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with reduced domestic supplies and increased foreign competition.  Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 122 million bushels lower.  The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $5.30 per bushel.  Prices received by farmers are expected to remain above cash bid levels through the fall as producers who forward-priced corn earlier in the year support the weighted average farm-gate price.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons lower as the reduction in the United States more than offsets an increase in foreign supplies.  Global 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.7 million tons.  In addition to the United States, corn production is lowered for Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and Serbia.  Partly offsetting are increases for Ukraine, India, and Turkey.  Ukraine production is raised 3.0 million tons as higher reported area combines with favorable July temperatures to raise production prospects.  Production is raised 1.0 million tons for India as favorable monsoon rainfall supports increased plantings and a higher yield outlook.  Turkey corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher area and higher expected yields.  Global barley production is raised 1.1 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Turkey more than offsetting a reduction for Canada.  Global rye and mixed grain production are also raised slightly this month with increases for the European Union.

Global 2013/14 corn trade is raised with increased imports projected for Mexico, South Korea, the European Union, and Egypt.  Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine, but partly offset by declines for Russia, the European Union, and the United States.  Corn trade is also increased for 2012/13 with higher imports for Egypt, South Korea, Turkey, the European Union, and Indonesia.  Exports for 2012/13 are raised for Brazil and Argentina.  Supporting the increase in Brazil export prospects, particularly over the next few months, is a 3.0-million-ton increase in 2012/13 corn production.  Global corn consumption for 2013/14 is projected 2.3 million tons lower.  Reduced U.S. feed and residual use is only partly offset by increases for South Korea, Ukraine, and Egypt.  Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 0.8 million tons lower with the increases for Ukraine, India, and Brazil, mostly offsetting the reduction projected for the United States.

 

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013/14 is increased slightly from last month, as higher beginning stocks and imports are nearly offset by lower production.  The decline in production is due to lower forecast sugarbeet and sugarcane yields, compared with last month’s trend-based projections.  For Mexico, higher supplies are due to increased production more than offsetting lower carryin stocks.  Harvest area of sugarcane is higher than initially projected, but slightly lower than Mexico’s final estimate for 2012/13.  With 2013/14 supplies up in Mexico, exports to the United States are increased.  Ending stocks are raised slightly for both Mexico and the United States.

 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2013 is raised from last month as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork, broiler, and turkey production.  Beef production is raised as greater fed cattle and cow slaughter combine with heavier average carcass weights to push output higher.  Moderate feed prices and recent placement of heavy animals are expected to support higher average carcass weights in the second half of the year.  Pork production is reduced largely reflecting lower slaughter in the third quarter.  Broiler production is reduced as the increase in second-quarter production was smaller than expected.  The forecast for second-half production is unchanged.  Turkey production is lowered as hatchery data portends sharper production declines in the third and fourth quarters.  Egg production is raised from last month as greater table egg production more than offsets a marginal decline in second quarter hatching egg production.  For 2014, beef production is raised slightly on larger expected marketings of cattle placed in 2013.  Forecasts for other meats are unchanged.  Egg production is higher compared to last month as growth in the broiler breeder flock is expected to support greater hatching egg production. 

Beef exports are raised for 2013 on stronger shipments to several markets, while the forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month.  Beef imports for 2013 are reduced based on second-quarter data, but are unchanged for 2014.  The 2013 pork export forecast is down fractionally reflecting second-quarter data, with 2014 unchanged.  The 2013 broiler export forecast is higher as shipments showed continued strength in June.  The forecast for 2014 is unchanged.  Turkey exports for 2013 are up slightly reflecting trade data for the second quarter.  U.S. Census Bureau revisions are reflected in historical trade estimates.

Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2013 and 2014 as greater beef production and attractively priced competing meats are expected to pressure prices.  Hog prices are raised for 2013 as demand strength is expected to continue through the end of the year.  Broiler prices are reduced in 2013 and 2014 as recent price declines are expected to persist.  Turkey price forecasts are unchanged from last month.   

The 2013 milk production forecast is higher than last month based on production data for the second quarter, but subsequent quarters are unchanged.  Production for 2014 is unchanged.  Exports are raised for 2013 on both a fat and skim-solids basis as continued tight world supplies support higher exports.  However, the export forecast for 2014 is unchanged.  Fat basis imports are raised for 2013 while the skim solid forecast is lower.  Import forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.

Fat-basis ending stock forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are lowered as lower prices are expected to support greater butter use.  The skim-basis stock forecast is unchanged for 2013 but lowered for 2014 as domestic demand for nonfat dry milk (NDM) is expected to improve. 

Robust demand for NDM supports increased price forecasts for 2013 and 2014.  The cheese price forecast for 2013 is raised on relatively strong demand, but the forecast is unchanged for 2014.  Butter prices are forecast lower for both 2013 and 2014 as stocks are relatively high.  The whey price forecast is unchanged from last month.  For 2013, the Class III price is raised from last month on the stronger cheese price, but the 2014 price is reduced on a lower butterfat price.  The range of the 2013 Class IV price is narrowed for 2013 but is unchanged at the midpoint as the lower butter price is largely offset by the higher NDM price.  The 2014 Class IV price is unchanged.  The all milk price for 2013 is forecast at $19.60 to $19.80 per cwt and $18.65 to $19.65 per cwt for 2014.

 

COTTON:  This month’s U.S. cotton estimates for 2013/14 reflect lower production as indicated by USDA’s first crop survey, resulting in lower ending stocks.  Production is reduced 447,000 bales to 13.1 million, the smallest since 2009.  The abandonment rate is estimated virtually the same as last season, but yields are down, due mainly to a 17-percent reduction in the Southeast from the 2012 record.  Relative to last month, the 2013/14 balance sheet also includes marginally lower beginning stocks and a decrease of 400,000 bales in the export projection.  Domestic mill use is unchanged.  Ending stocks are now forecast at 2.8 million bales, the equivalent of 20 percent of total disappearance.  The forecast range of 72 to 88 cents for the marketing-year average price received by producers is narrowed 2 cents on each end.

The U.S. 2012/13 balance sheet is revised this month to reflect exports as reported in USDA’s U.S. Export Sales end-of-season report, and also includes a first estimate of final ending stocks.  Stocks in public warehouses as of July 27, 2013, as reported to the Farm Service Agency, are lower than anticipated, resulting in a preliminary loss estimate of 325,000 bales.

The 2013/14 world cotton forecasts show higher beginning stocks, lower production, and marginally lower ending stocks relative to last month.  Production is reduced for China, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Zimbabwe, but is raised for Pakistan.  The China crop estimate reflects unfavorable weather in parts of Xinjiang, north central China, and in Hunan province.  Other major foreign changes to the world balance sheet are concentrated in India.  India’s production is unchanged from last month, but stocks are raised in 2011/12, 2012/13, and 2013/14 due to adjustments to the residual "loss," as the official data used to estimate production, trade, and consumption indicate unsustainably low stock levels.  India’s exports are raised in both 2012/13 and 2013/14.

 

RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 238.4 million cwt, up 2.9 million from last month.  Projected beginning stocks and production are each raised from a month ago, while imports are lowered.  USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2013/14 U.S. rice crop is 181.4 million cwt, up 1.9 million from last month's projection, but down 9 percent from the previous year.  Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,406 pounds per acre, up 76 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but down only slightly from last year’s record.  Area harvested is unchanged at 2.45 million acres.  Long-grain production is forecast at 124.8 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 56.6 million, up 0.8 million and 1.1 million from a month ago, respectively.  The all rice import projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 22.5 million due in part to an expected larger crop.  All rice beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 2.0 million cwt to 34.6 million because of a decrease in the 2012/13 export estimate to 107.0 million.

U.S. total rice use for 2013/14 is projected at 208.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month. The all rice export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 96.0 million cwt—all in medium/short grain.  Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 66.0 million and 30.0 million, respectively.  All rice domestic and residual use is unchanged at 112.0 million cwt.  U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 30.4 million cwt, up 1.9 million from last month, but 12 percent below the previous year.

The 2013/14 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.80 to $16.80 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.  The all rice price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, down 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  A year-to-year smaller crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to provide some support to prices; however, plentiful supplies among the major Asian exporters will dampen the increase.  Global 2013/14 export prices are expected to be lower than a year ago.

The projected decrease in global 2013/14 total supply is greater than the drop in total use thus resulting in a decrease in world ending stocks.  Global production is lowered 0.8 million tons to 477.9 million, still a record, due primarily to a forecast reduction for China, which is partially offset by increases for Pakistan and the United States.  China’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 143.0 million nearly the same as 2012/13.  Hot dry weather in the lower Yangtze River Valley and in the southwest has stressed both the single and late rice crops.  Rice production is likely to be negatively affected in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces.  Global beginning stocks for 2013/14 are lowered 0.6 million tons due mostly to a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Indonesia—Indonesia’s 2012/13 crop is lowered nearly a million tons to 36.6 million.  

World 2013/14 consumption is reduced 0.8 million tons with most of the decline in Indonesia and China.  Global trade is raised 0.7 million tons with increases in exports for India, Pakistan, the United States, and Vietnam.  Import projections are raised for China and a number of West African countries, which are partially offset by reductions for Turkey and the United States.  Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 107.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month, but an increase of 2.7 million from the previous year.  The largest stocks reduction for 2013/14 is for India, down 0.5 million from a month ago.


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Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

Hedging Corn and trade Ideas for 9/5/13

Sep 05, 2013

 Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 

Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account. 

Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 37 years.

 

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This report was sent to subscribers on 9/4/13 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 9/5/13.

 

 

 

 

 

Numbers for 9/5/13 are: 

December 2013 Corn  

                       
4.82                         
4.75 ¼                          
-------------4.69 ½           Pivot     
4.63 ½                                                                            
4.53 ½                                                                             
 


5 day chart....      Down from last week same day                                                                 
Daily chart   ...    Sideways                              
Weekly chart ...  Down                     
Monthly chart ...Down               5.49 is the 200 DMA
ATR 15                                              Oversold 13%
 

 

9/5/13: I continue to say "$4.98 is strong resistance. The 2013 low supports".                  

In my daily December 2013 corn numbers on Wednesday my pivot acted as resistance and was .00 ¾ from the actual high; my support was .02 ¾ from the actual low.                                                             
        
2012 low was $5.11 FG, 2011 low was $5.10 (now resistance), and 2010 it was $4.          

9/5/13:

Grains: Almost a $.70 one day implosion from the high on Tuesday to the low on Wednesday, so tell me how the fundamentals justify that kind of movement without a report or an "event"? Yesterday they came back from 3 days off and "analysis" of how the crops are doing; and today change the forecast and the market pukes out all gains and closed down for the week. How can the fundamentals possibly help you take advantage of the market swings? The charts insisted us to sell against the contract high and we got our chance twice now when $.01 from the contract high. We were $.04 ½ from our support on Wednesday.

Focus on fundamentals and not the price; and you are guarding and focused on watching the front door (fundamentals) so nothing is taken, while your house is being emptied of all the valuables out the back door.

On the other hand, what I have done my entire career, and even after 4 decades of watching fundamentals and more importantly how the market reacts to them, is concentrate on the price because that will actually put money in your pocket or take it away from you. The charts are the only thing that I use for price discovery. Yes, I can get a bias or direction from the fundamentals, but everything I do is to enter a trade where little is risked if the chart level holds, and is rewarded handsomely when it does. I have always throughout the nearly 7 years of doing my subscription service, repeated the same things that do not change, and the most important rule is to control risk by having a line in the sand to get out if the number does not hold and not lose too much on one idea. 

It amazes me how most "hedge services" and "advisors" can watch corn go down from where we hedged December 2013 corn at $6.50 and have had some protection for 6 months or more. They have held back from being 100% hedged, and unhedged they are looking at $4.70. I do not know how much higher than $6.50 they would have hedged, but I do know the unhedged have lost $1.80 trying. Almost all my producers have lifted part or their entire hedge and have at least $1.10 per bushel free and clear after all costs and commissions. Now they are just like the unhedged using their crop insurance that looks like they will be collecting too, and still have the upside possibility of more upside income if it can rally no matter the reason. Did you hear on the radio or read a few months ago, of a hedge strategy that said if corn goes below $5.50 that you should store it until 2014? How well is that strategy working, and how the losses you can be exposed to justify the risk, especially when HEDGE means to take risk off the table? Knowing the fundamentals is one thing, trading/hedging it is another.     

Next week we will see the latest USDA supply/demand report, but it is too early this year to be helpful on what is out there on over 175 million acres. Get the position you want prior to that report. All my producers have been inactive except for selling $15 soybean calls or buying put spreads to lock in more income because they have the positions they want. It is boring now I know, but what better frame of mind do you want to be in? Do you want action, or money? Your bet is inside your hedge, but unlike before you started my service, your risk is now much less, you have total control of what you do, and you slow down the market by controlling your risk.

I am getting tired of telling the unhedged for 2014 crops, that I recommended being 100% hedged long ago. I said and many have, locked in $5.60 December 2014 corn and $13.20 to $13.40 for November 2014 soybeans. Have a plan, a line in the sand, and never put your head in the sand because that does not work.

I want to day trade the market today without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.      

9/4/13:

Grains: Soybeans failed once again to break through the contract high of $14.09 ¾. The weather pushed the market sharply higher, but hit the wall where it has a few times now in the past including last Monday. Combines rolling will give the answer the market is "guessing" on. Trade the price, not the fundamentals. Fundamentals and perception are the drivers and point the direction, but the chart is your roadmap.

Combines rolling in the south are probably showing better than expected corn yields, and when the combines roll in the Corn Belt, the market will get real answers not guesses. Soybeans strength has not helped corn, and if corn closes below $4.70, I look for a retest of the low of the year of $4.45 ¾.

Corn put spreads are worth keeping until the chart picture changes. If $4.70 persists to hold, then sell the put spread when you want the upside back. The chart turns friendly above $5.10.

November 2014 soybeans posted a "double top" at $12.35 which was also last Monday's high, so the closer you get to there, the more you want to hedge 2014. 2013 will not help 2014 at all, only in sympathy temporarily. 2014 corn cannot be ignored, my plan is 100% hedged, and do you have a plan? Get one no matter what, have lines in the sand. You cannot wait for the race to be over before you want to place a bet, or hedge.

Crop progress showed corn declining 3% and 4% in soybeans. Weather trumps any crop progress report at this time. All I did on Monday was selling $15 calls for some producers, all around $.20. I want to trade the market without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.     

9/3/13:

Grains: Quiet holiday trade, grains finished the week positive but weak. September corn closed the week down a fraction. All other corn contracts managed to hold its gap support which is good, but vulnerable closing the week near the low. Same for soybeans, they made supportive gaps, and kissed the steep uptrend line support and held (line comes in at my pivot on Tuesday). You must also recognize that both markets closed the week much closer to the low of the week, rather than at the highs. Closing near the low makes the soybean market vulnerable to opening below the low of last week and going down from there. This would make an "island top" formation which is very bearish. December corn has the same possibility. On the other hand if weather was and is forecasted to be adverse when we open Monday night, we could leave another gap higher and would bode well for a retest of the high of last week. Nobody can predict with certainty what the weather will be on Monday night and the next 10 days. If the weather was exactly what was predicted on Friday it will be no help in discovering if we will go up or down from here.    

Commentary on 8/26/13 I wrote "The market perception right or wrong feels that the coming weather will be adverse for soybeans, and the bulls are starting to "kill the crop", but we are waiting to see how the current weather will affect the crop from here on. Corn does not have that weather thing going for itself, as a matter of fact from what my producers tell me, corn needs the heat and will be good for it at this time. Rain right now would turn both crops into gold, but the emotions are starting to run high that it will not rain for a long time and the crop will be greatly reduced. All that could be true, and no matter what, there are some major producing states that are looking at records. We do not know what was planted, we do not know how good the good is or how much of it is bad, we do not know what the next 4 weeks of weather will bring, and we do not know if prices will be sharply higher or lower from here in 4 weeks from now. Be honest. That is why you are using options, you clearly see what you have at risk, and you control that amount of risk because it is "known", and you can easily change your position to reflect your current bias". This still applies.

The only thing I know for certain is the facts of price performance in the past. I know that grains are always worth what the last trade price is, that is called reality no matter what you think. Charts are where I get a bias, and are what I use to bet on, pure and simple. I know where I am wrong (when the chart level fails to hold), and I know what reward I seek. Trying to find the "inside secret" or have the "inside information" or knowledge that nobody else has, is like buying a "tip sheet" at the race track. But looking at a racing form (like a chart) and watching a horse "warm up" before the race (twice) to see if the horse looks "right", is what a "professional handicapper" does. I do not want to find the magic of fundamentals; I want to learn how to be successful in the market. I want to know how to participate (trade/hedge) in the market because that is where the money is; what good is information if you do not know what to do with it?

When you have such a wide difference of guesstimates that in itself tells you how hard it is to make a guess I would bet on. All you need to do is look, and you will find a service that will say what you think or what you want to hear. I am telling you as I have for a long time, your guess is as good as anyone, so bet on your own thoughts and ideas. Now you know how to control risk if you are wrong, and that is a big advantage. My guess is from the charts, and the corn charts and 2014 soybean chart are "sideways" to "bear markets" and should be hedged because until the chart changes, they are longer term bear charts. Only the 2013 soybean chart is bullish, but the high for the year has been made and should be sold against it.   

Many have some long $5.10 or $5.30 put spreads which closed about unchanged and I think were worth holding onto as far as a "trade idea", because they are so intrinsic that you could be wrong the market on Tuesday closing $.08 higher and probably will not lose any money. If it goes down $.08 though, you should pick up $.03 or more in value. I would use a $.03 sell stop on the put spread idea. Look for all outright calls and puts to lose money unless the market is at least $.08 higher or lower.

I do not know what the unhedged are thinking about this weekend, but I know you are not worried about what the grains will do next week. Keep going higher and everyone makes more money, goes down and you have already captured from the rally what you wanted by selling calls above the market last week to add income. Higher is good, and everyone has enough made on the downside, and crop revenue insurance is protecting now, that the downside is good as far as us getting to start over at a lower price when the crop insurance is set to be paid. Enjoy the weekend; you really have a holiday from money and risk, so enjoy the "break".

I want to trade the market without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.

        

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years.

 

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $199.00 monthly

If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser: 
 

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Howard Tyllas

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

   Tel.1-312-823-9189,  1-702-405-7245

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

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