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April 2014 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

Hedging Soybeans and Trade Ideas for 4/9/14

Apr 10, 2014

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Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

 

Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.


Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

 

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This report was sent to subscribers on 4/8/14 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/9/14.

 

November Soybeans

 

After the close recap on 4/9/14: My resistance was 12.35, .01 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 12.17 1/4, .02 (pivot was the EXACT low in open outcry) from the actual low.

November Soybeans

12.58                           

 

12.35                           August 2013 High

 

--------------12.17 ¼    Pivot 

 

11.99 ½                                

 

11.93 ¼                               

 

                               

 

5 day chart...         Up from last week same day                                                                           

 

Daily chart   ….    Up (turns Down below $11.87)

 

Weekly chart …   Sideways   

 

Monthly chart ….Sideways         11.72 is the 200 DMA

 

ATR 16                                          Ex. Overbought 96%    

 

 

For 4/9/14: I continue to say "Uptrend line above is resistance, bracket line at $11.87 and the daily numbers support. Note the blue line, to show where I got $11.98 from the low in April 2012".

 

Uptrend correction is still intact. Below the bracket line I want to take the sell signals.    

 

In my daily November soybean numbers on Tuesday my resistance was .00 ¼ from the actual high; my support was .05 ¼ (pivot was .02 in open outcry) from the actual low.        

 

 

 

4/9/14: 

 

Grains: 

 

You cannot control the market, or the market pendulum swings, or control what the price will be looking at today’s price. All you can do is control yourself, and every successful trader I know is in control of what they do. Look for opportunities on rallies or breaks to improve your hedge cheaply, which is the easiest and least risky way to participate in the market.   

 

I am much more concerned how the market reacts to the report, than whatever the report says. I really like it when I think a report will cause the market to move one way, but it moves the other way instead and I am right the market but wrong what I thought the report would say. Right the market for the wrong reasons, better than being right the report and wrong my position. Let’s say we get a bearish report, the funds might take the opportunity of lower prices to buy more contracts, and by the end of the day it closes higher. Bearish report but we close higher. Maybe it will be a bullish report that drives the market to its resistance and the bulls take the opportunity to take some profits, the selling feeds on itself, and we close lower on the day. 

 

But no matter if the report is bullish or bearish, the true buyers or sellers will execute their orders if the market gets to their price. Nobody cares why their order was filled, they just care when it is. I prefer not to have a position going into the report, and take advantage of price swings after the report trying to buy the support or sell the resistance numbers first, and the more the extreme the numbers or level, the more I like to take the trade. I ALWAYS use a stop to protect any idea.   

 

Charts are in bull mode, but getting close to major longer term resistance price levels. I would trade the numbers without bias and risk $.04 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.  

 

4/8/14: 

 

Grains: Not much going on, and I think today will be no different as we await the report on Wednesday. Exports were really good, but that did not do much to spur new buying interest. I think both bull and bear have the position they want as we await weather for planting just around the corner. Last year at this time we were in the "wet" part of the weather scare, and we did not really get it in until mid May, and how did the 2013 crop come out? But shake in your boots because we still use a horse and a plow to get it in. Spin it any way you want, and think what you want; prices can do anything because the current weather still is meaningless when it comes to forecasting production. We play poker now, and the best hand does not always win, but the time to "call the bet" will be at harvest, and these are just bets along the way until the last card is turned and the final outcome is known.  

 

I am really amazed that the market could be this high and poised to go higher at this time of the year after making summertime like rally, but knowing the funds bought nearly 500,000 contracts since the start of the year, then it does not surprise me. Whenever and from this level or higher, when the downturn comes it will be fast and brutal, that will be when the funds become sellers. They seem comfortable, and they are adding contracts not getting out yet, so they might feel that for the next week they can look to the weather to decide to add or take risk off their table. I do not know what they will do, but I know what I want to do. What I want to do is take sell signals especially for a day trade when at the resistance numbers, more than buying support numbers. I have no problem buying the longer term support levels too if we get down there.    

 

I continue to say "I want to sell rallies more than buy breaks, but I would trade the numbers without bias and risk $.03 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".                                                                                            

 

                                             

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

 


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

 


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

 


Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

 


$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $199.00 monthly 


If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser: 
 
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=GD5H5ZZLQD2V2
 
Howard Tyllas 
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

 

 

   Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245

 

 

 

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

WASDE Report for 4/9/14

Apr 09, 2014

 WASDE Report 4/9/14


 

Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

 


Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account. 
Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

 

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of My Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas 
 

 WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 25 million bushels higher with lower imports more than offset by a reduction in feed and residual use.  Imports are projected 5 million bushels lower based on available shipment data.  Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels lower based on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by the March 1 stocks and revisions to the December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.  Projected feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring, and White wheat.  The all wheat export projection is unchanged, but small by-class adjustments are made to exports as well as imports.  The projected season-average farm price for all wheat is unchanged at $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 0.5 million tons with higher projected beginning stocks, mostly because of reductions in European Union and Ukraine consumption for 2012/13.  World production for 2013/14 is lowered 0.2 million tons with mostly offsetting changes to several countries of 0.1 million tons or less. 

World wheat imports for 2013/14 are lowered 1.7 million tons mostly reflecting a 1.5-million-ton reduction for China.  Smaller import reductions are made for Bangladesh, the European Union, Pakistan, and South Africa, but these are mostly offset by increases for Mexico, Nigeria, and Russia.  Global exports are lowered with 0.5-million-ton reductions each for Australia, Canada, India, and Ukraine, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Brazil.  Most of the export reductions reflect the pace of shipments reported to date, but reductions for Australia and Canada are also related to the lower import outlook for China.  For Ukraine, the latest trade data indicate a shift in export business from wheat to corn.  Partly offsetting the reductions is a 1.0-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan exports with reports of larger rail shipments to Russia and strong sales to Iran and China. 

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered 2.4 million tons mostly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction in China wheat feeding.  A number of smaller and mostly offsetting changes are also made in consumption for other countries.  Global wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons higher with the largest increases for Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, Australia, and China.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected lower this month with reductions for corn, barley, and oats.  A 125-million-bushel increase in projected corn exports reduces corn ending stocks by the same amount.  Continued strong export sales and a rising weekly shipment pace for U.S. corn during March support the higher expected export level as does an increase in projected global corn demand.  U.S. barley ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 7 million bushels lower with projected imports decreased and projected exports increased based on the pace of shipments to date.  Oats ending stocks are projected 10 million bushels lower with feed and residual use raised 10 million bushels on higher-than-expected December-February disappearance as indicated by the March 1 stocks.  Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels higher based on the high level of outstanding sales and the sharp increase in weekly shipments during March.  Sorghum ending stocks, however, remain unchanged with an offsetting reduction made in domestic use based on the higher-than-expected March 1 stocks estimate.

The 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at the midpoint with the projected range also narrowed to $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel, compared with $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel last month.  The projected range for the sorghum farm price is also raised 10 cents to $4.15 to $4.55 per bushel.  The barley and oats price ranges are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.00 to $6.20 per bushel and $3.65 to $3.75 per bushel, respectively.  The June-May marketing year for barley and oats is nearing an end with most of the two crops already marketed and priced.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are raised 3.6 million tons with increases in foreign corn production far exceeding reductions for millet, sorghum, and barley.  Revisions to coarse grain production for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries account for much of the change in world production this month.  Notable changes, however, are made for several major producing and exporting countries. 

Global corn production is raised 6.4 million tons with a 2.0-million-ton increase for Brazil and 1.0-million-ton increases each for South Africa and Russia.  For Brazil, favorable precipitation in March and early April has supported the developing safrinha corn crop with yields now expected just below last year’s levels in the areas where this second-season corn crop is grown.  For South Africa, improved rains in late February and March have boosted yield prospects for corn grown in the normally lower-yielding western areas.  Corn production is raised for Russia based on recent revisions to official production statistics.  Corn production is also raised 0.2 million tons for Mexico, in line with the latest government estimates.  Global sorghum production is lowered 1.1 million tons mostly on changes to the Sub-Saharan Africa countries, but production is also lowered 0.4 million tons for Argentina and raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil.  Global barley production is lowered with a 0.8-million-ton reduction for China.  Global millet production is reduced 1.7 million tons with more than half of the decline for India.    

Global coarse grain trade for 2013/14 is raised with higher corn and sorghum imports.  Corn imports are increased for the European Union, Algeria, Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam.  In addition to the United States, corn exports are increased for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam.  Sorghum imports are raised for China.  Global corn consumption is higher with increases in feeding for Argentina, Russia, and Algeria.  A reduction in European Union corn feeding is more than offset by an increase in food, seed, and industrial use.  Corn use is also raised for several of the Sub-Saharan Africa countries led by increases of 1.0 million tons for Uganda and 0.9 million tons for Ethiopia.  World corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are lowered 0.5 million tons with reductions for the United States and Ukraine outweighing increases for Brazil, Russia, and several other countries.

RICE:  No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class 2013/14 balance sheets.  Total 2013/14 all rice use is raised 1.0 million cwt to 221.0 million—all on the combined medium- and short-grain rice side.  All rice domestic and residual use is increased 4.0 million cwt to 124.0 million with long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use each raised 2.0 million to 91.0 million and 33.0 million, respectively.  Partially offsetting the increase in domestic and residual use is a 3.0 million cwt decline in projected total exports to 97.0 million—the lowest since 2008/09.  The 2013/14 long-grain export projection is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 65.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million to 32.0 million.  The rough rice export projection is lowered 2.0 million to 33.0 million, and milled exports are lowered 1.0 million (rough-equivalent basis) to 64.0 million.  The export pace has dropped off to some markets in the Western Hemisphere including Venezuela, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Haiti, largely due to stronger competition from exporters in South America and Vietnam.  Additionally, U.S. exports to African markets and Japan have been slower than expected.

The increase in domestic and residual use is based primarily on total use implied from the March 1 rice stocks, as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on March 31.  USDA’s March 1 rice stocks were lower than expected and lower than most trade expectations.  The all rice 2013/14 August 1 stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 27.3 million, the lowest since 2003/04—all in combined medium- and short-grain stocks.

The 2013/14 long-grain season-average price range is forecast at $15.30 to $15.90 per cwt, unchanged from last month, and with the midpoint forecast at $15.60 per cwt—the highest on record (series starts in 1982/83).  The medium- and short-grain season-average price range is forecast at $19.70 to $20.30 per cwt, up $1.00 per cwt on each end of the range from a month ago, and with the midpoint forecast at $20.00 per cwt—the highest price since the 2008/09 record of $24.80 per cwt.  The all rice season-average price range is forecast at $16.60 to $17.20 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range, and with the midpoint at $16.90 per cwt—the highest price on record.  The reduced prospects for 2014/15 medium- and short-grain production in the Sacramento Valley of California due to drought and reduced irrigation supplies have significantly raised medium-grain prices in California.  USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 31) reported intended plantings of medium-grain rice in California at 420,000 acres, down 18 percent from the previous year and the smallest since 1998.  Additionally, old-crop supplies of medium-grain rice in California are drawing down, tightening the current supply situation.  Finally, Australia’s drought is also increasing medium-grain prices as Australia is a major exporter of medium-grain rice and a primary U.S. export competitor.

The global 2013/14 rice supply and use balance sheet has changed little compared to a month ago, despite many country-level supply and use changes.  World rice production is increased 0.8 million tons to a record 475.6 million tons, primarily due to larger projections for Brazil, Pakistan, and Sub-Saharan Africa.  Global consumption is raised 0.5 million tons, largely due to increases for Brazil, South Korea, Sub-Saharan Africa, Vietnam, and the United States.  Global rice trade for 2013/14 is nearly unchanged from a month ago at 40.8 million tons; however, there were some significant country-level changes including increases in exports for Pakistan and Thailand; and decreases for Vietnam and the United States.  On the importer side, projected rice imports for 2013/14 are raised for Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, and Sub-Saharan Africa.  Global 2013/14 ending stocks at 111.2 million tons are down 0.5 million from last month, but up 1.0 million from the prior year.  Ending stocks projections are raised for China, Brazil, and the European Union, but reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 3.49 billion bushels, up 30 million on increased imports.  Imports are projected at a record 65 million bushels based on trade reported through February and prospective large shipments from South America during the second half of the marketing year.  Soybean exports for 2013/14 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.58 billion reflecting record year-to-date shipments and large outstanding sales.  Despite relatively high prices and record harvests in South America, U.S. exports have remained strong, especially to China, where imports from the United States have already exceeded the previous marketing-year record.  Soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.685 billion with lower domestic soybean meal consumption more than offsetting a small increase in projected soybean meal exports.  Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, while residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.  U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 135 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

Projected prices for soybeans and soybean products are all raised this month.  The projected range for the season-average soybean price is raised 5 cents at the midpoint to 12.50 to $13.50 per bushel.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 38 to 40 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents at the midpoint.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton, up 5 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 504.5 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month with lower soybean production mostly offsetting increases for other crops.  Global soybean production is projected at 284.0 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month but still a record.  Brazil soybean production is forecast at 87.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month with higher harvested area more than offset by lower yields.  Lower yields primarily reflect the effect of warm temperatures and limited rainfall through mid-February in the south.  India soybean production is reduced 0.8 million tons to 11.0 million reflecting lower-than-average yields resulting from excessive rainfall during much of the growing season.  Changes for other crops include higher rapeseed production for India and the European Union, increased sunflowerseed production for Russia, and increased peanut production for Argentina, Brazil, and India.

Global oilseed supplies, exports, and crush for 2013/14 are projected higher this month while ending stocks are projected lower.  Higher rapeseed crush in China and higher sunflowerseed crush in Argentina and Russia more than offset reduced soybean crush in the United States, Brazil, and India.  Global oilseed stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, down 1.4 million.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013/14 is decreased 73,000 short tons, raw value (STRV), from last month, as a result of lower production and slightly lower beginning stocks.  Sugar production is projected down 71,000 STRV, based on processor reports, with 41,000 of the decline from beet sugar and 30,000 from cane sugar.  The 2,000 STRV reduction in 2013/14 beginning stocks reflects minor adjustments to estimated 2012/13 cane sugar production and deliveries for food.  Projected 2013/14 use is unchanged from March indications.  The net reduction in projected 2013/14 ending stocks of 73,000 STRV brings the stocks-to-use ratio down to 13.0 percent, from 13.6 percent projected in March.

Supply and use estimates for Mexico for 2012/13 and projections for 2013/14 are unchanged this month.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production.  For beef, production is forecast higher as lower forecast slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter in the second half.  The larger forecast second-half slaughter reflects larger placements of cattle during the first half.  Pork production is reduced from last month as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated a year-over decline in the December-February 2014 pig crop and revised the June-August 2013 pig crop lower.  Although producers indicated intentions to increase sows farrowing in March-May and June-August 2014, the loss of piglets due to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus is expected to result in lower slaughter during the remainder of the year.  Although carcass weights are forecast higher, those gains will be insufficient to offset the reduced slaughter numbers and the pork production forecast is reduced from last month.  Broiler production and hatchery data points to slower growth in eggs set and chicks placed. Production is also reduced as feed prices are forecast higher.  Turkey production for the first quarter is reduced based on February production, but forecasts for production in subsequent quarters are unchanged.  Egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.

The beef import forecast for 2014 is raised from last month as demand for processing-grade beef remains strong and the export forecast is raised on continued strong sales to Asian markets.  Pork imports are raised on high U.S. pork prices, but the export forecast is reduced as tighter supplies and high prices are expected to constrain sales.  The broiler export forecast is reduced based on February export data.  Turkey exports are lowered on weaker sales.  Egg import and export forecasts are lowered.

Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month, reflecting continued price strength for fed cattle. The hog price forecast is raised on current prices and expected tight supplies of market hogs. Broiler and turkey prices are raised as higher cattle and reduced broiler production support higher prices.  The egg price is raised on continued strong demand.

The milk production forecast for 2014 is raised from last month as strong returns are expected to encourage a more rapid expansion in cow numbers and increased milk per cow.  Fat-basis exports are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter, but the skim-solids export forecast is lowered on weaker-than-expected nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales.  Skim-solid imports are reduced slightly due to lower imports of milk protein concentrate and casein.  
 
Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, and whey are higher, supported by strong demand and price strength to date.  However, the NDM price is unchanged at the midpoint as export demand is weaker than expected.  Class III and Class IV prices are raised on higher product prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $22.55-23.05 per cwt.

COTTON:  The 2013/14 U.S. cotton estimates include lower production and ending stocks compared with last month.  Production is reduced 320,000 bales to 12.9 million based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25.  Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged.  Ending stocks are reduced to 2.5 million bales, which is the smallest stock level since 1951.  The stocks-to-use ratio of 17.5 percent is the smallest since 2010/11.  The marketing-year average price received by producers is now forecast at 76 to 79 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range, reflecting recent higher market prices.

This month’s world cotton 2013/14 estimates feature a 1.0-million-bale increase in expected imports by China, based on stronger-than-expected imports to date and the likely release of new import quotas.  World production is reduced marginally as the decrease for the United States is mostly offset by increases for Brazil, Burkina Faso, and others.  Slight historical revisions are made for Australia beginning in 2000/01 based on a review of data sources.  World trade is raised 1.2 million bales, as increases in imports by China, Pakistan, and Vietnam are partially offset by reductions for India and Indonesia.  Exports are raised for Australia, India, and Burkina Faso, but are lowered for Brazil and Pakistan.  World stocks are raised marginally.


Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

 


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

 


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

 


Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

 


$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $199.00 monthly 


If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser: 
 
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=GD5H5ZZLQD2V2
 
Howard Tyllas 
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

 

 

   Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245

 

 

 


Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

Hedging Soybeans and Trade Ideas for 4/2/14

Apr 03, 2014

 

 

Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:


Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.


Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of My Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas 
 


This report was sent to subscribers on 4/1/14 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/2/14.


November Soybeans  


After the close recap on 4/2/14: My pivot acted as resistance and was .06 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low.

 All charts and numbers for 4/3/14 have already been sent to subscribers at 3:00 pm. 

Here were the numbers used on 4/2/14: 

 November Soybeans                                             
                           
12.35                                      Major Resistance 
12.31 ½                                
-------------- 12.12 ¾ FG        Pivot 
11.94                                     
11.82                               
                                  

5 day chart...         Up from last week same day                                                                           
Daily chart   ….    Up (turns Down below $11.87)
Weekly chart …   Sideways    
Monthly chart ….Sideways         11.74 is the 200 DMA
ATR 16 ¼                                      Ex. Overbought 94%    

 

For 4/2/14: November Chart: Bracket line above is resistance, bracket line at $11.87 and the daily numbers support. Note the blue line, to show where I got $11.98 from the low in April 2012.

I continue to say "Market turns into a bull chart above $12.13. Uptrend correction is still intact".              
    
In my daily November soybean numbers on Tuesday my pivot acted as resistance and was the EXACT actual high; my support was .08 ½ (only .03 ½ in open outcry) from the actual low.                                         

    
 4/2/14:

Grains: I replaced the soybean chart tonight with the front month continuation chart. This is a continuing chart quoting front month prices until it goes off the board, and then the next month becomes spot and the numbers continue on this chart. As you can see, the May contract is the spot month, and on this chart it shows we are at MAJOR resistance in old crop soybeans now. It is the 3rd time at the downtrend line and it has the most resistance, but since we closed so close to it, it is already at the bulls objective to take a profit, and becomes a key pivot. That line/number was $14.90 on Tuesday and closed just below it. This will be like a key pivot today, above it I want to buy, below it I want to sell. If it can get through $15, you can see the high of the day the contract changed hands in July 2013 at $15.25 which is the next resistance. Known risk strategies for a longer term trade idea looking for a retest of $14.25, day trade always uses a stop.

November soybeans $12.12 ¾ FG should be strong resistance in relation to the strong resistance level in old crop now. If old crop is above $15 then I can see a run towards major resistance at $12.35. $11.67 has proven to be the first line of good support that the bulls defended successfully the last 4 weeks each week. When trading, I consider old and new crops 2 separate markets, and should only look at the month you are trading. Trade what you watch and watch what you trade. Otherwise, you might be buying November thinking it will go higher because the old crop is, only to find the old crop keeps going higher (you were right) and the November you are long keeps going down. It does not matter what month I day trade, I just make sure it is at a number for me to risk little if it does not hold.

The bulls have been and still are in control of the market this year posting huge profits. Only they know their plans and resolve. The end users are real, the producers are real, the funds and speculators are real, and even the reasons for each is real, looking at the market as a "game" can do the same thing for you, makes it real. Why? Because games keep score, and in this game money is the score. The charts are the "past performance" in this game, and probabilities change with time. Betting the Cubs to win the World Series this year would be the same "what if" as $10 corn this year. And even if the Cubs are winning their division by 10 games in July, does not mean they can sustain that playing level at "harvest". Being in first place is one thing and capturing the division is another. Watching corn price go higher is one thing and capturing some of it is another. Who cares if you win the game because of errors, you won. I do not care why a market goes to a price level and holds, I just care it did, I win.

What I am saying, is I knew from day one this is gambling when you participate as a speculator, and you can think what you want, but when your account goes down you are losing the game, and when it goes up you made money. When you make so many trades in a day, it is not how many trades you make, or which ones made or lost money, it is the result at the end of the day that shows how you did no matter what you think. It is the end of the week, the end of the month, the end of the year, the year over year that determines how well you are doing. Each trade is like a new chance "at bat".

For an end user or producer it is or should be the exact opposite, they use the market to reduce risk, and that risk is shifted to the speculator. Now through my eyes you see what you are up against, and you are or have already learned the tools you need to improve the way you participate in hedging. When you do gamble it is "inside" your hedge reflected in the strikes you select and then every time you morph it. The risk is clear and known, and we try to keep the gamble as cheap as possible. Not all days of the year you want to take a gamble, but whenever you do feel you have an opportunity you like, that is the time to allocate money.  

Nothing can be better than going higher, and I will be glad to be amazed if it does. The funds resolve, momentum, sentiment, charts, and the "cold" temps, are providing the bulls with ammunition to have gotten them here, and the bears have production yet to be seen like the Calvary over the mountain, but if it comes they will blow the bulls away. Until the crops can be seen, the bulls are putting the pressure on the bears.

There will always be speculators like me who come in daily without position and try to take out of the market what it has to offer that day. I can play the sell side by taking the sell signals only and get stopped out many times over days, because the day it holds the rewards is great.

If I sold the market in open outcry Tuesday (high was $12.09) against the gap resistance of $12.12 ¾, it took only a little while before it went down $.15 to $.03 ½ above the pivot (where you could have taken the buy). If that was the only trade I made, I risked $.06 and could have made $.09 or more, and can make money selling a market that is going higher by day trading. Know what you are doing and why. Only then, will you be able to participate successfully. Reducing stress, reducing risk, slowing down the market and gaining control is a successful start that a hedge provides, wherever the price is at the time of the decision to reduce risk.

My producers are far from day traders, but all use the daily numbers on the days when they need to do something. If on the day they need to reduce call spread lets say, and we are below the pivot, they might try a price an order at a lower price. If they want to sell let’s say buying more protection that day and we are above the pivot, they might look for a higher price to make it cheaper.

"I would day trade the numbers without bias today and risk $.03 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".

4/1/14:

Grains: Numbers were spot on before and after the report. Before the report all market were at supports, after the report we tested resistances. Corn stocks were below the average guess, and corn acres were lowered greatly. Average corn yield would produce the second biggest corn crop ever, and stocks are plentiful but not what you would call burdensome. My take/spin (yours is as good as any) is the funds did not see anything in the report that concerns them, and will try and push it higher until the crop gets in the ground and the bears have something to take away from those who look for a production shortfall. Like every year, the next few months make or break a crop, and since 2012 the logic seems to be we will have a production shortfall instead of an average yield until proven otherwise. With the cold weather, it probably feels like wind in their sail.    

The funds are the elephant in the room, and nobody knows what their plans are. Nobody can prove them right or wrong at this time of the growing season, only Mother Nature and she is not saying anything you can use against the funds right now. The funds will shiver whenever decent weather appears. That leaves me where I always am, looking at the charts for clues to discover what resistance will hold, and we have not found the answer since the Jan Final report. I thought these levels would hold, we shall see.

I keep in mind that this market could see profit taking within 4 days from now, and if we do I would be looking to reduce my upside exposure. Hard to get long here, but easy if I can sell resistance numbers especially for a day trade. 

With the report showing less corn again, and the June stocks report could do it again, the odds increase for the low of the year of $4.35 in December corn to be solid support until the summer and production is proving to be coming along nicely. Resistance has not yet been confirmed, and you can see from the past where I get my numbers for support and resistance levels. This level, or if we can get to the next level, execute your plan to "capture" what the market is giving you, and the higher the better when you do. Nobody needs to do anything; market is basically the same place as before the report.

May soybeans posted a new contract high. If November soybeans is like playing poker, the May contract is "high stakes" poker. Day trading with good numbers is one thing, position trading is another. May November spread is widening, and that could continue. November soybeans held up well with the bearish acreage numbers, but it probably was in sympathy to the strong gains in the May contract. Improving protection at these levels makes sense to me, and from the report and reaction I would say the contract low at $10.88 ¼ will hold until production looks like it will be a good one.

With that being said, if I had the November $11.60/$10.40 put spread on now, I would think about getting the $12/$11 put spread instead. At settlement it would cost $.06 7/8 to capture $12. It is a cheap way to capture $.40, but it is giving away $.20 in the spread protection. It is a friendly stance thinking you will be able to "One in the hand or two in the bush", and the one in the hand we do now is for expiration only.

Bulls have control but at lofty levels, bears appear vulnerable. The way the market ends the week should set the tone for next week. I am skeptical the market can survive without a correction by Friday, but no surprise to keep the bears feeling the pressure of higher prices.

Hedges are doing its job, and the rally provides a reprieve from new lows of the year instead. Hedgers should wait for prices to get high enough to capture what they can cheaply and also improve their protection down to $4.30 or $4.40. If markets come down they should look to reduce their call spreads. As long as you are comfortable you need do nothing.

We know the pre-report lows at support were solid; resistance is yet to be found or confirmed, so I would day trade the numbers without bias today and risk $.03 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.

3/31/14:

Grains: If there was no report today I could use the same corn and soybean numbers as used on Friday. I will zoom out on the charts in part 2 to show the bigger picture where the past prices held, and this is what I do for discovery of what price could be possible to hold once again.

No matter what the report says, and no matter which way the price swings, I have a plan on what I want to do and I already know the reason why. Subscribe now....................... Each time the pendulum swings, is another chance "at bat". 

Look at the May corn chart on page 17, this is the same chart as the above "close up" look at the chart. The low of the last 3 weeks which is just below the uptrend line is support, and if that goes we are looking at support ...................................

December corn...........

November soybeans made its corrective high in August 2013 at $12.35, and I would think we would need to be in a weather market to hurdle it. If support of $11.67 goes, the floodgates open for lower prices to be tested.

This May 2014 contract never traded this price level even in 2012, this is this contracts high at $14.60. I now look at the front month continuation chart, and in September 2013 the corrective rally produced a high of $14.70, hence why we stopped at $14.60 for now. After that it would be the psychological high at $15 (the Buck). I have no problem day trading this contract, but I would not want to be hedging and protecting such a lofty price level if I did not need to. All my producers sold old crop soybeans weeks ago and lifted their hedges. Basis levels were much better than now. Plan was to market soybeans as quickly off the combine as possible in your own situation. Support is found at the bracket line at $13.50.

I do not want to be right the report and wrong the market, I would rather be right the market for all the wrong reasons. As a trader, I could care less what the report says, I only care about how the market reacts to it. This reports estimate you could drive a truck through them, so you never know how the market will react to it. If bullish the bulls could sell the rally because it would be profit taking, and the bears will sell betting the price level will need to pull back from there and regroup at a lower price for another attempt to rally. Bears could look at a bearish report for a chance to take profits and the bulls who missed buying the last rally will buy this time. So you never know, you can spin it any way, but this is how I have always looked at these reports since I started trading. If nothing else, it makes me not complacent thinking that things will not change quickly. It allows me to always be on guard that price, momentum, and sentiment can be fleeting. That is the premise of my strategy, that price day or longer term price levels will hold risking little to see if it does and pullbacks from those support or resistance levels no matter how temporary will provide a nice return.

I would say that anyone who comes close to the numbers is lucky, and I never want to be lucky in order to make money. Stocks report is here and now and will be the main focus of this report, acreage and such can still be adjusted and are guesses for now.

Since I cannot use the fundamentals now because estimates are so extreme, but I do know the funds have a big position that could get bigger, but could also get smaller, for the reason of chart location only I prefer to take the sell signals if it rallies, but I have no problem to buy if it gets down to a good support level.

Producers and position traders should improve their positions cheaply when possible, and that is easy to execute no matter what you think, or how the market looks at that moment, because it is cheap to do so. It will get easier in time when you get used to the fact that you are buying when everyone is selling, and selling when everyone is buying. That is much easier to do than risk $.20 or more and need to manage the position and risk having an opinion that could be very wrong in the short term before being right if ever.

I prefer to trade extreme numbers after the report comes out, and will risk $.04 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.                                            


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