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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

April Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 2/12/10

Feb 13, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 2/11/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 2/12/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Grains: My resistance was $.04 from the actual high and my support was $.07 1/2 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.02 1/4 from the actual high and my support was $.03 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.07 from the actual high; my support was 0.06 from the actual low.

S&P: My resistance was 1.75 from the actual high; my support was 0.50 (2 ticks) from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $0.70 from the actual high; my support was $6.70 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.19 from the actual high; my support was 0.53 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 1 from the actual high; my support was 1 from the actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .004 from the actual high; my support was .022 from the actual low. 

Cattle: My resistance was .15 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

April Cattle

After the close on 2/12/10 for April Cattle: My pivot acted as resistance and was 91.52, $0.15 from the actual high, and my support was 90.80 FG, only $0.10 from the actual low.

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92.25

--------------91.52      Pivot

90.80 FG

89.82                          200 day moving average

  Use the same numbers ass used on 2/ 10 & 11 /10

           

Trend                       89.85 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…      Up (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Up            

Weekly chart ……. Sideways   

Monthly chart …... Sideways 

ATR .92                   Extremely Overbought 92%   




I said "Bracket line is now support; weekly numbers give me the resistances.  Gaps and uptrend line (green) are longer term supports". Bulls are in control above the line.

 Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business. 

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .30 from the actual high, my support was .30 from the actual low.    

April Cattle (elec.) for 2/12/10: 

Cattle: Helpful numbers. Same thoughts as yesterday and I want to take the trade idea to sell.

April Cattle (elec.) for 2/11/10: 

Cattle: Spot on numbers. Chart is bullish and taking a breather to generate enough energy to push higher. Charts like this like to back and fill and that means to test the bracket line (but hold it), but this one has been on both sides and takes away from the bullish performance. Only positive is that it has managed to close above the line the last 2 days.

I am skeptical of this chart from here, but I would not risk much if I take the sell against 92.25 using a buy stop at 92.42 to protect. This market might be going much higher, the sell is for a day trade because it is extremely overbought and made a bracket line to bracket line move in just 5 days.

USDA updated on Tuesday its monthly supply and demand estimates and overall the release contained few surprises.

April Cattle (elec.) for 2/10/10: 

Cattle: Accurate numbers. My trade idea would have been stopped out for a small loss. Bulls need to hold that bracket line that will surely be tested even if they want to go higher (most of the time in a day or two after being violated). Chart is bullish now though. Close below that line would be considered a failure and more corrective action should follow.

April Cattle (elec.) for 2/9/10: 

Cattle: Helpful numbers at best. Bulls are trying to cheerlead the market through the bracket line resistance but since it is in extremely overbought condition it will be harder to do so. I would try and sell near the bracket risking little with a buy stop just above to protect. (A bracket line trade)

April Cattle (elec.) for 2/8/10: 

Cattle: Spot on support and resistance was off .40. Since 1/13/10 we had 3 bracket line to bracket line moves in this market. Patience to wait for these trades pays off. What took 3 weeks might have taken 3 months in another market, and sometimes we do not see this at all.  Now you can again see the value of bracket to bracket trading. When wrong you lose little, when right you can really be rewarded. When you lose .50 to 1.00 when wrong and you make 2.00 to 4.00 when right, you become a casino. Think about it, if you are wrong 2 out of 3 times you lose 1.50 to 3.00 on the 2 times wrong, and made 2.00 to 4.00 when right the one time, and are profitable being wrong 2 of 3 trades. But when right 2 out of 3 trades, you lose .50 to 1.00 on the loser, 4.00 to 8.00 on the two that worked. When wrong you make money, and when right you get paid handsomely. Money management coupled with risk reward is a big part of successful trading.

April Cattle (elec.) for 2/5/10: 

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bulls have struggled but are managing to test strong resistance; I would look to sell resistance with a buy stop just above the gap to protect.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?  

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn,  March crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, April gold, and March natural Gas and April cattle

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

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