This report was sent to subscribers on 9/10/09 5:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 9/11/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
Lastly, these are the same numbers I use to trade my CTA program, which earned 6.1% in June 2009.
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3.29 3/4 FG Key resistance (downtrend line)
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3.21 1/2
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--------------3.15 Pivot
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3.08 1/2
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3.02 2009 Low
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Trend
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5 day chart....….…. Sideways
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Daily chart ……….Down
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Weekly chart …….. Down
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Monthly chart ….... Down $4.00 is the 200 day MA
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ATR 10 Balanced 43%
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December Corn Chart
We all knew what happened to General Custer. Can you see the major head and shoulders top with $3.11 as the neckline?
This week's action has been constructive for the bulls, starting with Tuesday when corn made a new contract low and closed higher the same day. 2 higher closes after that confirms bottoming action for now. Retest of the blue downtrend line near the gap is key resistance at $3.29 3/4, and is also near the top of the right shoulder.
Comments for 9/11/09 Dec. Corn
In my daily numbers on Thursday my resistance was $.02 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.00 1/2 from the actual low.
Grains: Corn has been the leader this week but does not impress me. It could be from corn/soybean spreading, and/or covering some very profitable short corn positions in a thin pre-report market. Whatever the reason, and no matter the report, if December corn gets near $3.30 it will be a sell that I do not want to miss taking.
Trade expects an increase in corn production of 171 million bushels and soybeans 57 million bushels. I think corn production will be more, and soybeans less. If we did get 42.4 bushels from soybeans, this would be 0.6 above the NASS's highest September estimates. They will probably raise 2010 S. American soybean production (start planting soon), but I cannot see how they will not raise exports with PRC buying the way they have, and raising 2010 exports to them since this year's PRC crop will be lowered on today's report. Hybrid seed companies and universities are keeping their promise of higher yields.
We are in a surplus situation in wheat and corn, and with S.A. planting pillar to post, if they produce a nice crop, soybeans will be plentiful too. I know there is a difference between row crop feed grains and oilseeds, and oilseed use I feel will continue to expand.
Report or no report, the bottom line for me is the weather for the next 30 days, it will either add or take away, and the numbers can be substantial either way. Unless the production forecasts are lower than what is expected, or frost comes into the picture, I look for lower grain prices the next 2 weeks. Sunday night's long range weather forecast will be the driver to start the week, and my eyes will be on the weather alone for direction, and use the numbers to trade it with.
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Howard Tyllas
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Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.
