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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/17/09

Nov 17, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 11/16/09 5:55 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/17/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close on 11/17/09: My resistance was 10.32 1/2, just .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.01, just .02 from the actual low. Look

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10.32 1/2                                

10.22 1/2                                

-------------10.11 3/4                Pivot  

10.01                          

  9.91

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up                          

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.54 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27                    Overbought 82%


January Soybeans Chart

Downtrend line near $10.17 is resistance, green bracket line key support coupled with the 200 day MA right there at $ $9.53 1/2. The middle of the two is support now at $9.85 now.

Bulls need to hurdle this downtrend line in order to make a run for the red bracket line.

January Soybeans for 11/17/09

Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.06 1/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.08 from the actual low.

Grains: The dollar was underwater, crude rallied to my resistance, stock market strong, gold on a run, CRB gaining the most in 1 day since September is the only thing you need to confirm that money is flowing into commodities.....as long as the dollar remains weak. These markets should turn over quickly if the dollar can show strength and bottoming action.

Where are we going? The dollar and money flow is the biggest factor. If the dollar continues weak I think we will at least jab above the fall highs in corn only about $.10 away, and soybeans $.20, to get buy stops and see if it attracts more buying, and see if sellers reappear. I believe we are not going too much higher from there, but on the other hand it looks like $9.70 should hold soybeans up considering light farmer movement and 4th quarter export demand. Farmers are focusing on the corn harvest, grain drying, and fall tillage.

I am a bear at these levels fundamentally and close technically. I am more reluctant to sell in this environment but would still do so at resistance levels, but I would trade fewer contracts though. 5th time at trend line for soybeans, and corn at $4 does not surprise me for the reasons I said over the weekend, but close to resistance to take a small short trade. 

Bottom Line: Next report not until January, delayed corn supports, nearing resistance levels, money flow supports, and range bound $.50 soybean market, $.30 corn market. I want to day trade and spread trade for now. I want to risk $.05 to make $.05 to $.15. I am starting to cover my long Jan beans short November10 soybeans (SF/SX). I made $1125 on them on Monday.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

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