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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

June Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 4/14/10

Apr 14, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 4/13/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/14/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

June Cattle

After the close on 4/14/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 93.75, just .05 from the actual high, and my support was 92.70, just .17 from the actual low.


Results for 4/14/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from actual low.

Corn:         My resistance was .03 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.68 from the actual high; my support was 0.37 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was .75 from the actual high; my support was 1.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was .60 from the actual high; my support was 2.30 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .12 from the actual high; my support was .15 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 2 from the actual high; my support was 9 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .102 from the actual high; my support was .115 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .05 actual high; my support was .17 from the actual low. 

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94.80     

--------------93.75      Pivot 

92.70

92.00                          Key Support (bracket & UTL)

       

               

Trend                       87.65  is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…      Down (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Up             

Weekly chart ……. Up       

Monthly chart …... Up     

ATR 1.17                  Extremely Oversold 10%    


June Cattle (elec.) for 4/14/10: 

I said "Bracket line coupled with the bottom uptrend channel line creates strong support at 92.00". 

"Notice how the top uptrend channel line provided perfect resistance on Monday".

Cattle: Accurate numbers. We are in the middle of the uptrend channel but the momentum for Wednesday is down. Numbers have been accurate to spot on and would just use them to take my cues for today.

As I have said, I would only play this market with a known risk strategy unless day trading.    

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.           

 In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .15 from the actual high, my support was .40 from the actual low.

Results for 4/13/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .02 from actual low.

Corn:          My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .01 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.34 from the actual high; my support was 0.29 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.75 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.60 from the actual high; my support was 2.10 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .65 from the actual high; my support was .29 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 12 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .006 from the actual high; my support was .040 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .15 actual high; my support was .40 from the actual low. 

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/13/10: 

Cattle: Accurate resistance and helpful support. Sellers clearly can see the place to sell, but the buyers will have a harder time finding support below the gap at 93.57. Clearly the bracket line coupled with the uptrend line will provide strong support at 92.00. I have no bias today.

Results for 4/12/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .02 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .05 from actual low. Corn:          My resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.66 from the actual high; my support was 0.04 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 5.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.20 from the actual high; my support was 4.90 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My numbers were not in play, market gapped 1.11 higher from Friday's settlement.

Bonds: My resistance was 2 from the actual high; my support was 8 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .007 from the actual high; my support was .029 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .15 actual high; my support was .32 from the actual low. 

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/12/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers! Bulls are still in control, but Friday's action could send the market either way this week. Same thoughts of just wanting to day trade this market that trades my numbers well, and still recommend to longer term traders to have known risk strategies to protect you from unknown losses while giving you the time needed to see if your idea will work.

  Results for 4/9/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/2 from actual low. Corn:          My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.48 from the actual high; my support was 0.75 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.70 from the actual high; my support was the 0.60 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was 0.17 actual high; my support was 0.35 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 3 from the actual high; my support was 9 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .003 from the actual high; my support was .048 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .12 actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/9/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bulls are still in control but having trouble getting above the top channel resistance. Bulls could use a close above there to instill fear into the shorts this weekend; otherwise they could be giving needed courage to the badly wounded bears. Trading the numbers in this situation (or any for that matter) works for me. I have no bias today.

Results for 4/8/10 were:

Grains: My soybean resistance was .01 3/4 from the actual high and my support was .02 1/4 from the actual low, and my corn resistance was .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.02 from the actual high; my support was 0.49 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.00 from the actual high; my support was 0.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 3.70 from the actual high; my support was the 6.60 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was 0.10 actual high; my support was 0.17 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 14 from the actual high; my support was 9 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .074 from the actual high; my support was .026 from the actual low.   

  Cattle:  My resistance was .37 actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low. 

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/8/10: 

Cattle: Spot on resistance and not helpful support. I want you to read my comments again in cattle and learn what I said about my numbers and how I use them. It did not matter the event, the resistance is the resistance and the support is the support. Imagine being a floor trader and they open sharply higher and you have no numbers. I would be clueless on what I would do. Yes, I would know I want to buy or sell, but I would be at such a disadvantage being random, it would be hard to last long with the price swings, and have ability to be wrong without going broke before being right. Even if I was successful, by using charts and numbers it would be like giving eyesight to a blind person, and would improve my performance.

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/7/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers. Bears were able to back and fill the gap left from Friday's close. I would have told you I have no bias today and would take a trade signal on either side of the pivot. I had the luxury tonight to see the cattle market was sharply higher after the close when I was doing my numbers. I knew that we traded above my 95.35 number and at 95.30 when I did part1, but this does not change my numbers for today. The resistance is the resistance no matter if it is there tonight, or on the open in open outcry.  

Remember, I was a floor trader and did my numbers when there was no trading after the close. I did my numbers the night before so I knew what I would do no matter where they opened, and knew where I wanted to be a buyer, and where to be a seller. If they opened above my second resistance I would do nothing, if at my resistance I would sell lightly, but sell because they are at my resistance. I learned when a market opened sharply higher or lower, most of the time the market would open at the extreme, because that is where in the case of cattle now, the floor traders feel they can sell safely and be able to buy back 1 minute to 15 minutes later for a good reward for taking the risk.

I did the most contracts when the entry provided the least risk if wrong and the best profit if right. If my bias was the same as the signal I would trade more, or trade little when the signal was not what i wanted to do. How you adjust your risk reward, is up to you, but I first have a set amount I want to risk on a given trade, if I want to risk $5,000, and my stop is $1,000 I would do 5 contracts, if my stop was $2,500 away from the entry price, I would do 2 contracts. The bottom line is I would not lose more than the $5,000 on the trade.

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/6/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers! Bulls are in control but found near term resistance at the top uptrend channel line. I have a toss a coin bias and I call it "up".

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/5/10:

Cattle: Bulls regained control of the market to start the week and ended up in that condition. I would have no bias on Monday and just trade using the numbers. 

On Friday 4/2/10 my numbers in the markets that traded were:

S&P:    My resistance was 1.25 from the actual high; my support was 4.50 from the actual low. 

Euro:   My resistance was 0.14 actual high; my support was 0.17 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 4 from the actual high; my support was 1 from the actual low. 

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

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Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            


Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

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