March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 3/5/10
Mar 06, 2010
This report was sent to subscribers on 3/4/10 5:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 3/5/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?
After the close on 3/5/10: My resistance was 3.77 3/4, just .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.65 1/4, just .01 from the actual low.
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3.81 (3.84 FG & 200 day MA)
3.77 3/4 (3.75 3/4 FG)
--------------- 3.71 1/2 Pivot
3.60 Key Support
5 day chart....….…. Sideways
Daily chart ……… Sideways
Weekly chart …….. Down
Monthly chart ….Down $3.83 1/2 is the 200 day ma
ATR 8 3/4 Balanced 57%
I continue to say "Red bracket line is pivotal now (resistance for Thursday); gaps above are strong resistances, $3.60 supports".
March Corn for 3/5/10:
I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".
In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .01 1/4 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on corn numbers and spot on soybean resistance and helpful support. New subscribers need only to read back in my comments to bring you up to date. You will find that I have wanted to sell soybeans and wheat the most, and corn should be dragged down with it. This was the 3rd week I called for choppy action and this is what we have traded. It would not surprise me to see grains close higher on Friday just for that reason.
Corn had good exports, soybeans and wheat did not. Informa came out with bearish numbers for soybeans, and rains subsiding in Brazil with ideal weather in Argentina for the next 10 days pressured the market. $ scenario still in play for me with my bullish view on it, this in time will weigh on prices.
March Corn for 3/4/10
Results for 3/3/10 were:
Grains: My soybean resistance was $.00 1/2 from the actual high and my support was $.00 3/4 from the low, and my corn resistance was $.03 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was $.03 3/4 from the low.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.28 from the actual high; my support was 0.07 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 3.00 from the actual high; my support was 0.75 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was $2.20 from the actual high; my support was $0.70 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.52 from the actual high; my support was 0.02 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 1.5 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low.
Natural Gas: My resistance was .079 from the actual high; my support was .048 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .30 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on soybean numbers off by less than a penny, and accurate corn numbers. Chart lines make it clear where support and resistances are. Fundamentals are fundamentals; perception with a fistful of money is another with the latter always in control in the short run. I always trade technically using just my charts for price discovery and on day's where it is time to buy or sell I use my daily numbers for the best place that day to do so. For day trading, I use the chart for a bias to buy or sell depending in the bigger picture if we are near the bracket line support or resistance. I am never an aggressive seller near bracket line support nor am I an aggressive buyer near bracket line resistances.
As far as the funds are concerned, they are my friend, because they provide opportunities that would not be seen without them. They also provide rocket fuel when you are in agreement to propel to target objectives that would have taken weeks, but with them sometimes takes only days. I guess I learned at an early age how to use the strength of the big boys against them. I took Judo when I was 7 years old and went to learn and workout 6 hours a week. By 9 years old I was in tournaments and working out 20 hours a week. At 13 I came in 3rd in the Midwest and beat a boy who weighed 40 pounds more than me and I was only 110 and 5'4". I used his strength against him even though I looked like a ragged doll until my feet got a chance to plant into the mat.
Choppy action continues, and the bulls face the same thing at resistances as bears witnessed at support, hard to follow through because the price is right and it is too soon to move extremely in one direction or the other. We will need more evidence (no matter the direction) to move past the parameters laid out so far this year. The chart will let us know when to give up my bearish bias.
Bulls and bears, producers and speculators alike, should seek a good location for what you are thinking, and keep the risk reward always in your favor not risking more than you are willing to make from the last trade price.
March Corn for 3/3/10
Grains: Accurate soybean and corn numbers. March soybeans traded over $10.70, and March corn traded above $4.25 on the first trading day of this year. So, how do you think the funds are doing so far this year? I would say they are getting pretty hurt when you look at the chart and see the huge losses. I heard about some funds that have lost more in the first 2 months of this year than what they made in 2009. I am going to lunch next Wednesday with my fund manager (I am still under contract for $40 million for 4 more years), maybe I will talk about how the other funds are doing, he knows much more than I do about this. Barclays, Autumn gold, and others offer performance results of many CTA, Fund, and Pools.
This tells me not to expect too much inflow to wheat (their favorite), and soybeans, but the corn bulls have some "what if's" to support, but I think they will be disappointed on the March 10th report if they are looking for less 2009 production due to what is in the field.
Same as before, I expect more choppy action, and more marking time. Cold weather looks like it is saying goodbye, days are getting longer, and the world turns.
March Corn for 3/2/10
NOTE: These numbers are for March....to get May you add the basis between the 2. Add 11 to 11 1/4 cents to the March corn to get the May corn numbers.
Add 10 cents to the March soybean numbers to get the May soybean futures.
Any market you trade that you want to trade the next month, the rule of thumb that I always have used is to add (or subtract) the month that I chart from the month that I trade from settlement. For example on Monday the May corn closed 11 cents above the March contract, the spread was 11 to 11 1/4 on the close, and that is how I came up with the "basis" between the 2 months. This does not work with old crop new crop, and certain other markets where the basis changes greatly in a day.
The reason for continuing the chart is simple; the front month is where the true producers and end users will be found, and every day after first notice day the speculators disappear. The first few years I charted both the spot and next month, and 90% of the time the front gave me e truer number. The 2nd month could be 1 cent above the pivot while the front month is below the pivot by 1 cent, the front month was always best. Every year or two I look at this and the answer is always the same. Also, the next month out does not have as many trading days until recently, while the spot has 2 months or more of trade activity.
Results for 3/1/10 were:
Grains: My resistance was $.04 from the actual high and my support was $.00 1/4 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was the exact actual high and my support was $.00 3/4 from the low in corn.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.16 from the actual high; my support was 0.24 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was .25 from the actual high; my support was 4.00 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was $7.60 from the actual high; my support was $7.50 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.38 from the actual high; my support was 0.40 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 10 from the actual high; my support was 11 from the actual low.
Natural Gas: My resistance was .017 from the actual high; my support was .028 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .15 from the actual high; my support was .27 from the actual low.
Grains: Exact high and off $.00 3/4 off the low in corn, and accurate soybean resistance and 1 tick from perfect from the low. Here comes Argentine higher quality corn, and soybeans hitting the export market now. Even though funds are adding to their corn longs thinking planting delays, I think the burden of proof is in their hands. Soybean sales are still good while corn is fading.
As time goes on the weather bulls should temper their attitude and have less confidence on the price at these levels. The market should then start to talk about all the moisture in the ground, and that for me is bearish. Yes, they might get the crop in the ground late, but you only have to look back to last year for the results. Anything can happen with weather, and that will be every year in my lifetime, but after trading for 34 years I know how to trade the "what if", and the "what is".
Soybeans and wheat look the worst to me, and the corn chart is sideways at best since the 1/12/10 crop report limit down day at $3.92 1/2. Corn is the first crop in and will usually outperform its peers on "weather" and that is one of the reasons it is acting so strong. I have been saying that buy corn sell wheat and/or soybeans have something to do with it, but you just have to look at the COT report to see it is the funds doing the buying.
"Thank you funds" is what the bulls should say for being able to sell at the bracket line to take profits. Any bull who makes money past the first gap that was exactly filled on Monday, will earn every penny. If you are a bull and stayed long thinking you will sell at $3.90 near that strong gap, you lost $.10 trying to make the last and hardest $.10 for the run. This is a players bet that I never take because in time no matter in a day, week, or month, I will find a better location to risk $.10 and not just go after $.10. A dime is a dime, but like in a marathon, the last mile is the same distance as the first mile, but the energy it takes to run the last mile is not comparable to the first mile.
Corn bulls should note that the gap at $3.81 was the first gap, the next is $.03 higher at $3.84, and the gap at $3.92 1/2 is a big one (because the size of the gap). Bulls are like salmon swimming upstream this chart. I feel on this move, the bears are eating them up the closer they get to their home ($3.92 1/2). Can the bulls take it above there? Markets can and will do anything, and need no more reason then, there are more buyers than sellers to do so. I also know that the bears have good resistance levels to not risk more than the gap for a good reward if right.
I want to sell rallies in all 3 grain markets.
March Corn for 3/1/10
Results for 2/26/10 were:
Grains: My resistance was $.03 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.03 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.01 from the actual high and my support was $.02 1/4 from the low in corn.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.27 from the actual high; my support was 0.77 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 2.75 from the actual high; my support was 6.25 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was $2.20 from the actual high; my support was $6.30 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.08 from the actual high; my support was 0.07 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 10 from the actual low.
Natural Gas: My resistance was .001 from the actual high; my support was .018 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .22 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on corn numbers, accurate soybean numbers. Firm outside markets, CRB making a move to their highs, and a wide range of private weather forecasters calling for a delayed planting of corn, and traders expecting a first of the month buying spree by funds as seen so many times in the past. Last 2 weeks price action shows early week buying followed by end of week profit taking. Chart action is range bound with corn looking the best of the group.
I will be looking at the dollar this week, basis between SA and the US grain prices, and updated weather forecasts looking for warmer weather and rainfall guesstimates. I am keeping in mind that the March 10th crop report will see position adjustments prior to the report, but the biggie is the 3/31/10 report. Until then I think the grain markets have more to do with outside markets rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Late planting scenario seems to be what the bulls are counting on, yet there is no real link to late planting causing low yields (or lower corn area planted), as witnessed in 2009 when we had record yields in both corn and soybeans. This is why I think corn bulls have 10 to 15 cents left to the upside at the most, and then sellers will appear.
If you think that corn will not get in the ground, those acres will most likely be switched to soybeans, and I would buy CZ sell SX as a spread (buy new crop corn sell new crop beans).
Most central IL farmers have harvested all their corn now and are reporting only 5 to 10 BPA loss, which is really nothing considering normal harvest is around November 1st. If you are a bull and think that corn damage will cause a drop in 2009 corn production, I think you will be disappointed. I am hearing reports of 9 to 10 % deteriorating corn in the bin compared to the normal 1 to 2 %. A farmer I talk to in that area tells me they are 2 to 3 weeks behind due to delayed fall fieldwork and might not get it into the ground until April rather than the usual last 2 weeks of March. His thinking and mine are if that is the case, corn acreage will switch to soybean acreage. I will take ground conditions with subsoil moisture high, because rain is considered a valuable input and certainly has a value.
Although weather forecasters are calling for delayed planting in the corn belt, another forecaster pointed out that some heavy snow packed years went on to post record US corn yields.
A two-tiered market for corn is developing across the U.S. Midwest as processors and ethanol plants boost bids for high quality supplies and penalize farmers for delivering sub-par grain.
Two Bunge North America processors in central Illinois this week offered 10 cent-per-bushel premiums for corn with test weights above 56 lbs, the minimum weight to qualify as No. 1 yellow corn. Premiums of 15-20 cents were offered elsewhere in the Midwest for corn 57 lbs or higher, grain merchants said. Processors are bidding aggressively for the No. 1 corn so they can "blend up" the sub-par supplies they received during harvest.
3 weeks ago Index Funds in the 12 reported commodities increased their position 16,280, then 6,370, and last week by only 2,400 as seen in the USDA commitment of traders report (COT) which seems to show money inflow is slowing.
I am bearish grains from this level going forward, and will trade it using the charts and daily numbers from the short side when possible. Corn could be supported in the near term, but I think will be dragged lower by soybeans and wheat.
Producers who need to hedge should consider hedging soybeans and wheat first, corn next. Speculators should consider shorting the same in that order. (before a producer could go short at whatever price, they will first need to be 100% hedged, because until then, they are always long)
I have the same parameters as last week and look for more choppy action on both sides of the market this week too. Last week for example, corn closed higher on Monday, lower Tuesday, higher Wednesday, lower Thursday, and closing higher on Friday.
March Corn for 2/26/10
Grains: Spot on numbers! Corn is showing the most strength based upon the need for 2010 acreage and at least average trend yields. The reason I do not think March corn can get above the gap at $3.92 1/2 is: plenty of subsoil moisture going into 2010 growing season, SA corn and beans will soon be ready to export the record crop that should take away from our export market, at a time when poor quality corn here in the US will be forced to dump on the market from the inability to store. March soybeans should see $9.80 hold back any rally from further gain. New crop soybeans (SX) is my number one choice for taking out the low of $8.99 1/2 for this run. Soybeans should drag corn lower with it.
I have said last 2 weekends that I was looking for choppy trade, and that was certainly the case, and unless I see unexpected price action on Friday, brace for another choppy week to come.
March Corn for 2/25/10
Grains: Accurate numbers. I said when I sent this earlier "I will send more commentary later, but I really want to sell soybeans near the downtrend line, and corn near the gaps are a sell including the gap left from 1/12/10 at $3.92 1/2 basis the March futures. Even with the ongoing thoughts from the trade of delayed planting, this is more bearish for soybeans; I think it will be bearish in the long run for corn too. IF the cool wet trend that has been in place since the fall of 2008 lasts through 2010, it will be great for yields as it was in 2009.
I do not care what causes a market to get to a level, I want to exploit and take advantage of the opportunity. This has been a backbone to my trading approach using my charts. I want to trade at locations that provide minimum losses when wrong, and worthy profits when right. Having said that, I want to sell rallies in all 3 grain markets, and place buy stops above to protect. Fundamentally I have the bearish fundamentals on my side, but I know as a trader that has little to do with price discovery, and perception with money behind it....RULES! Eventually things will come to order, but the task of a trader is in the approach, strategy, money management, let alone the daunting task of managing time. In time you can be right your ideas, but if the market goes far enough against you at first, you would go broke without risk management. So I take it 1 trade at a time, and the next trade has absolutely nothing to do with last one. All the "last ones" should be considered a learning experience, practice, and hopefully you get better in time.
My job is not to tell you where to sell or buy, my job is to tell you what I want to do and provide the best numbers on the planet that I rely on myself, and continue to expose my mindset, my approach, and the how and why I look at everything. Hard to find true experience and knowledge, and that is exactly what I provide.
Fundamentals I am keeping in mind are global stocks are adequate, rain in the ground brings grain too, and at these prices I think the USDA is understating acreage that will actually be planted. If you compare prices on a stocks to usage ratio, soybeans on farm price is about $2.50 more than it should be, $1.50 in wheat, and $1 in corn, and producers should thank the funds for that.
Producers: Same message as always, you are the one to make decisions on where you should hedge your crops. I always encourage you to keep the gamble at a minimum, and not risk more than you are willing to make from here. I would always take profits (in this case you are long) on the way up at resistance levels and so by the time they were at the downtrend line I would only have 1 left. When hedged, then you are free to go long or short, but I suggest keeping it within what your income can afford as "play money". As you know my strategies give you your crop exactly where you want it and you can partake in any upside you like, while taking care of the risk you want to protect to the downside, it is that easy. That is the meat and potatoes you are hedging, the risk to the downside but if there is an event that causes a rally, we are cheering it on because that means you will be making more money.
March Corn for 2/24/10
Results for 2/23/10 were:
Grains: My resistance was $.00 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.05 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.01 1/2 from the actual high and my support was $.04 1/4 from the low in corn.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.05 from the actual high; my support was 0.12 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 3.00 from the actual high; my support was .25 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was $3.90 from the actual high; my support was $8.10 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.38 from the actual high (only .02 off in my chart comment); my support was 0.08 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 1 from the actual high; my support was 4 from the actual low.
Natural Gas: My resistance was .039 from the actual high; my support was .051 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .32 from the actual high; my support was .17 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on resistance in soybeans and corn, accurate support numbers. I think I was right on about the "fund raiders" buying the market and pushing corn to the point of weak sellers were short covering to minimize losses, and that fund had "longs" accumulated by them bidding up the market making the rally to accommodate by selling to take profits . Weak soybean bears were treated the same way, when they rallied about 18 cents from settlement to almost exactly to the downtrend line where people like myself that respects that downtrend line, and sold leaning against that line using a buy stop just above to protect losses if it did not hold this time. This is another example of the power in bracket lines and up and downtrend lines and why I respect and use them. If you sold at $9.76 let's say and used a buy stop at $9.80 1/2 risking $.04 1/2, you could have bought it back just above the pivot that was $9.62 1/2, because the market went to $9.52 before the close. Minimum risk when the line does not hold and good reward when it does. My mindset likes this type of trade and makes me a casino getting the odds instead of a player giving up the odds.
Now we have an uptrend line (minor) near $9.46 for support, and the downtrend line for resistance at $9.79. Corn has the bracket line for support at $9.62, and resistances are the high on Tuesday and the gaps just above there.
I think some of the action was to force hedging from tight farmer hands because cash has been tight, and so by bidding up the old crop and selling the new they create a basis that brings the farmer to market. For the next 5 weeks that spread (buy old crop (SN) sell new crop soybeans (SX) has worked 12 of the last 15 years, and in soybeans meal from 3/2 to 3/29 it has worked 15 of the last 15 years. What I am saying is that this is a tendency that if you want to buy this spread, this statistic is another reason to do it, but not THE reason. I have said not long ago that I like buying this spread. Buy it when the market is near a support level. If Brazil gets a wet pattern into mid March we could see business shift to our tight cash market, but for now the S American soybean harvest is well ahead of normal.
Last year the market produced a $4 rally in soybeans and $1 rally in corn, but not only was there too much rain here in the US, but a shortfall in SA too. This year I do not know the odds for a wet spring in the US, but in 2 or 3 weeks the forecasts will be out there. I think this is the only hope for the bulls, and if it looks like by the end of March we continue to have February's cold wet conditions, I think corn could test the gap left from the report day at $3.92 1/2 (March corn). I think you would need even more threatening conditions to get corn back to the pre-report day at $4.22 1/2. Keep in mind that if they have to shift from corn area because they cannot get it into the ground, they will plant soybeans wherever they can. This will add even more of a negative tone for soybeans going forward.
I still feel we are moving in a choppy sideways pattern for the rest of this week.
March Corn for 2/23/10
Grains: Spot on corn and accurate soybean numbers. Soybeans failed to breech the bracket line, while corn was the leader blowing out short traders in the last 4 weeks. Nobody on the floor had an answer to the rally, but it felt to me like the "fund raiders" could have taken control of corn looking for sellers to buy back from them rather than new buyers.
I hear the chatter about too much water in the US farmlands. If I can remember correctly, didn't we just have a cold and wet year that turned out to produce record yields?
Fundamentals presented at the 2010 Outlook Forum suggest building stocks of soybeans, ongoing ample stocks of wheat and slowing growth in corn demand that unlike late winter/spring of 2009, gives significantly less upside price potential until 2010 N. Hemisphere growing conditions are in the spotlight.
The reality is nobody but Mother Nature can tell you where prices will be in 6 months. I can go into and rehash everything fundamentally, but the bottom line for direction it comes down to the money behind the thought. Bulls are betting on the weather more than everything else put together, and bears are betting the weather will be adequate, stronger dollar, and the funds will not be investing in the grain markets as before. If we were in Vegas I wonder what the odds would be for killing the 2010 crop? I remind you that my mindset has always been to trade price, and if at a location that looks like a good reward for little risk, I will do it no matter what the reason it got there. The more I want to do that trade, the more contracts I would do, if I did not want to be on that side of the market, I would not take the trade, or do a minimum of my normal contract size.
Market might trade here as it did when near their lows, not going anywhere but not giving it up too easy. With the strong close, next $.10 up or down in corn, and .15 to .20 in beans is a 50/50 chance at best for the bulls. If I was long I would be taking profits along the way up. I want to sell every rally for now and use stops to protect.
March Corn for 2/22/10
Grains: Spot on low and exact high in corn, accurate soybean numbers. I said last weekend I was looking for choppy action, and we did see that with soybeans getting to the bracket line resistance and stalling, and then went down about the same amount to test support, winding up unchanged for the week. Corn had the same action first going up 7 1/4 cents, and then going down by Friday being down 8 1/4 on the low to finish down 1 1/2 for the week. I expect the same this week.
The May $3.80 call settled up 1 1/8 on Friday to recover the earlier losses in the week to close 5/8 of a cent lower for the week. Because I am looking for sideways to lower price action, this is the reason for choosing this strategy instead of an outright short futures position. If you do not trade options, selling rallies in corn and soybeans is what I continue to want to do. Producers need to hedge sooner or later, but until they do they are long the market. (Before producers could get short they would need to be fully hedged first)
Speculator bulls or un-hedged producers are looking for weather to be a factor going forward. They probably expect the dollar to get weak again, and commodities will be in demand. Charts are sideways to down so no help there. Unless prices get above where they were before the 1/12/10 Final report, I consider this a bear market marking time to see how the fundamental factors play out.
There is normally little news at this time of the year in the grain market, and with SA 2 months from pouring grain onto the world market, and soon export demand here usually falls off dramatically.
Lastly, producers and speculators alike should also realize that the December corn futures are enjoying a $.38 1/4 "carry charge". That means if every day the market was unchanged now until December, on December 1 we would be trading at $3.60 and would mean although "cash" was the same as on 2/19/10, the December futures will have eaten up the "carry" and would have lost $.38 1/4. The seller on 2/19/10 who was neither right nor wrong corn, yet would gain the $.38 1/4. The buyer on 2/19/10 would need to see cash rally $.38 1/4 in that time period to retain the value of $3.98 1/4 for December futures and have no loss. Soybean bears (or producers) do not enjoy that luxury for the November 2010 futures. This in my mind is another big reason for hedging new crop corn (December). That is how my hedgers in 2009 got more for December 2009 corn than the high for 2008 corn traded in 2009.
March Corn for 2/19/10
Results for 2/18/10 were:
Grains: My resistance was $.02 1/2 from the actual high and my support was $.03 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.00 1/2 from the actual high and my support was $.01 from the low in corn.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.49 from the actual high; my support was 0.60 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 3.25 from the actual high; my support was 3.00 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was $3.90 from the actual high; my support was $8.10 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.05 from the actual high; my support was 0.08 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 11.5 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low.
Natural Gas: My resistance was .005 from the actual high; my support was .004 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .12 from the actual high; my support was .37 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on numbers. Producers and speculators alike have had ample opportunities to sell this week at higher levels at or near the bracket line resistance in soybeans, and the strong $3.69 1/4 level that has held March corn in check. Just like the soybean and corn resistance levels was enough to hold rallies from further advance (and will continue to be), this report if it produces a reaction to the downside, will be seeking where true support will be prior to planting intentions. $9 March soybeans and $3.47 1/2 March corn should provide good support, and if that goes I will look for choppy to eroding price action to continue. If those levels hold, then I would look for sideways trade with those established support and resistance numbers as parameters to trade between.
My bias is still to the downside even though I can see that my supports have been tested tonight and so far are holding. I would stay short going into the weekend. If you want to buy I would also be watching outside markets for some help and I would use a sell stop to protect, not farther than the profit you will make if right.
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