May Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 3/23/10
Mar 23, 2010
This report was sent to subscribers on 3/22/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 3/23/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
Results for 3/23/10 were:
Grains: My soybean resistance was $.05 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.08 1/4 from the low, and my corn resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was $.00 1/2 from the actual low.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.34 from the actual high; my support was 0.23 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 3.50 from the actual high; my support was 1.25 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was 3.10 from the actual high; my support was 5.50 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.25 from the actual high; my support was 0.42 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 7 from the actual low.
Nat. Gas: My resistance was .015 from the actual high; my support was .022 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .12 from the actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low.
Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?
After the close on 3/23/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 3.70 1/2, just .01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.62, just .00 1/2 from the actual low.
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--------------- 3.70 1/2 Pivot
5 day chart....….…. Up
Daily chart ……… Sideways
Weekly chart …….. Down
Monthly chart …. Down $3.87 is the 200 day ma
ATR 7 Balanced 61%
I have been saying "Downtrend line at $3.75 is pivotal now, and above there the bulls target the bracket line. Bears target this year's low of $3.59".
May Corn for 3/23/10:
I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".
In my daily numbers on Monday; my resistance was .01 1/4 from the actual high; my support was the .01 1/2 actual low.
Results for 3/22/10 were:
Grains: My soybean resistance was $.03 1/2 from the actual high and my support was $.02 3/4 from the low, and my corn resistance was $.01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was $.01 1/2 from the actual low.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.78 from the actual high; my support was 0.46 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 2.25 from the actual high; my support was 2.25 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was 1.30 from the actual high; my support was 3.60 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.24 from the actual high; my support was 0.30 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 3.5 from the actual low.
Nat. Gas: My resistance was .008 from the actual high; my support was .014 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .37 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on numbers. I have said it all. I could talk about how exports on Monday were really good in all 3 grain markets, but what good does that do? I could say that the warmer temperatures I see as bearish, but corn traders could be mixed on the rain forecasts. After that it would be blah blah blah and I do not need to write things that will make no difference in price discovery today or for that matter in the future because nothing new in these markets now. I can see some choppy trade later this week and early next week before the report next Wednesday.
Here is a 5 minute bar chart that I use at times during trading, and what I use when I do not watch a market but want to see the price action was after the close. (which goes beyond flat price at times)
In the case of this chart of May soybeans (electronic) on Monday it shows the bar 5 minutes after the open and the bar on the left is the first 5 minutes of trade in "open outcry". The market at that time was on both sides of the pivot and not more than 5 minutes. You could have taken a buy, or a sell, but at 9:40 the market was clearly above the pivot of $9.59 1/4 for more than 5 full minutes and a buy to cover a sell and take a small loss, or a place to get long or stay long. 3 hours later the market was at resistance and taking profits are in order, and a place where you can get short or if waiting to re-enter the short (sell).
How you trade it is up to you. This is how I have traded all these years. Keep a journal, do I cover on the close, do I take them home (overnight) do I keep just some? This is what makes YOU the trader, and I would journal what you think as well as what actually happened. It will keep you honest.
May Corn for 3/22/10:
Grains: Spot on corn and helpful soybean numbers. Informa and Allendale estimates out on Friday show how far everyone is apart on this year's acreage to be planted. Whatever their impact, it has already been priced in, and it was a very low volume day. Sloppy choppy action was the case intraday, but for the week soybeans and corn grinded higher. You can see after the January report correction, we have traded in a sideways pattern marking time and this action I have constantly reminded you to expect.
From the close on Friday until 3/31/10 I see no more than $.15 up or down from here in corn, and $.25 up or down in soybeans from here. I want to use the chart and trade the numbers from here, and take what the market has to offer. Fundamentals remain the same.
May Corn for 3/19/10:
Results for 3/18/10 were:
Grains: My soybean resistance was $.05 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.05 1/4 from the low, and my corn resistance was $.01 1/2 from the actual high, and my support was the EXACT actual low.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.22 from the actual high; my support was 0.04 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 1.50 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low.
Gold: My resistance was 4.40 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.19 from the actual high; my support was 0.52 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 2 from the actual low.
Nat. Gas: My resistance was .012 from the actual high; my support was .103 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .90 from the actual high; my support was .45 from the actual low.
Grains: Perfect number for support and off .01 1/2 in corn, and helpful soybean numbers. Chart speaks for itself. I expect a little more back and fill being in overbought conditions and having nice gains for the week. Open interest has declined with the $.34 gain this week which is short covering rather than new buying.
Exports sales for the week were over 4 times what were expected in soybeans, and above the high expectations in corn. You can read all others who will tell you the reason the market was up or down by just "pinning the tail on the donkey" but when the shoe fits they report it. I have always told you that I do not care what news is there for that day, the market all knowing it and will react to it, and I have always believed and witnessed that the market will go to a support or resistance for whatever the reason, and that is where I want to trade. The how is selling at resistance no matter to take profits if long (exit), or a place to enter a sell to go short (enter). Buying at support to take profits if short (exit), or a place to go long (enter).
I never buy or sell because of the news, I look at the chart for location, and trade the numbers with a bias when I have one, or without bias when I do not. It is strictly charts and numbers on a given day. Remember, the news I think of the same way I look at the funds, they move the market to levels that can be exploited that would not have been seen without them.
Thursday action was exactly what I have been saying, sloppy choppy price action that is going nowhere fast. The market is giving everyone a chance to get long or short, and allocate more or take money off the table before the report. As a floor trader, I relied on my grain numbers to take out of the market what I could on a daily basis. They have been as excellent as you have seen for 34 years. Yes I would take home a small core position when I took trades at bracket lines and trend lines and certain formations for longer term trades, but my job as a floor trader was to not take risk overnight.
Informa will have a big role in today's action, I am expecting them to add acreage but have no idea what that will be, you know my guess for the 3/31 report is big. If a surprise I feel the market will follow through on Monday. I have laid out the market well as to what to expect, and nothing has changed.
Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with.
Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
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