May Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 3/24/10
Mar 25, 2010
This report was sent to subscribers on 3/23/10 2:20 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 3/24/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
Results for 3/24/10 were:
Grains: My soybean resistance was $.00 1/4 from the actual high and my support was $.03 1/4 from the low, and my corn resistance was the EXACT actual high, and my support was the EXACT actual low.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.06 from the actual high; my support was 0.74 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was .50 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was 1.10 from the actual high; my support was 3.70 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was the EXACT actual high; my support was 0.48 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 2 from the actual high; my support was 29 from the actual low.
Nat. Gas: My resistance was .033 from the actual high; my support was .016 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was the EXACT actual high; my support was .27 from the actual low.
Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?
After the close on 3/24/10: My resistance was 3.66 1/2, the Exact actual high, and my support was 3.59, the Exact actual low.
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--------------- 3.59 Pivot
3.51 1/2 (FG on the old March contract)
5 day chart....….…. Down
Daily chart ……… Sideways
Weekly chart …….. Down
Monthly chart …. Down $3.86 1/4 the 200 day ma
ATR 7 1/4 Extremely Oversold 8%
I have been saying "Downtrend line at $3.72 is resistance now, and above there the bulls target the bracket line. Bears target this year's low of $3.59".
Notice how the downtrend line acted as perfect resistance on Tuesday, and another example of how selling the line provides a small risk when wrong, and a good reward when right.
May Corn for 3/24/10:
I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".
In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was the .00 1/2 actual low.
Results for 3/23/10 were:
Grains: My soybean resistance was $.05 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.08 1/4 from the low, and my corn resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was $.00 1/2 from the actual low.
Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.34 from the actual high; my support was 0.23 from the actual low.
S&P: My resistance was 3.50 from the actual high; my support was 1.25 from the actual low.
Gold: My resistance was 3.10 from the actual high; my support was 5.50 from the actual low.
Euro: My resistance was 0.25 from the actual high; my support was 0.42 from the actual low.
Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 7 from the actual low.
Nat. Gas: My resistance was .015 from the actual high; my support was .022 from the actual low.
Cattle: My resistance was .12 from the actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on corn and helpful soybean numbers. The market reporters might say it was the warm weather, maybe as we close in on next week's crop report the corn bulls realize we might have 600+ million more bushels in the bin on 3/1/10 than we had last year as of 3/1/09. Maybe because most analysts are upping their acreage forecast to 3.4 closer to what I have been saying as planting pillar to post at these price levels. The bottom line for me was the fact they could not hurdle the downtrend line and the fundamentals as you know I have said for months are bearish.
Now that the weather has presented an opportunity to plant early, the prospects for improved yields might be more important than the acreage versus last year. What happened to that idea (even from certain farmers) that we will not get it in the ground on time? This is an example of what I have been saying about trading the "what if" from the "what is". The what if of delayed planting is what I have been saying as a supportive factor fundamentally that allowed the market to rally to prices that would not have been seen without that possible outcome. The "what is" for me is at a price level to sell, knowing the market would need to in fact see more signs of the what if to continue or the market will come back to the what is. I always tell you that I do not care what brings the market to a price level to buy or sell, what matters to me is that there is a location to risk little if wrong, and be rewarded nicely when right. Yes, I like to be on the side of what I think the fundamentals are.
I want you to also remember that I said US soybean and corn acreage gained 1.5 million from the March 2009 report to the Final report despite all the rain and cries of disaster.
Corn bulls are joining forces with General George Custer and making a stand at this year's low. I think they will hold going into the report, but if it does break support I think it only has another $.10 to the downside. This is a possible game changer report and should not be taken lightly by either camp bull or bear.
Soybeans almost managed a sixth straight up day but closed $.00 1/2 lower on Tuesday. I give it only a slim chance to get above $9.85 before the report. I do expect some back and fill after the strength that has been shown since last Monday. In the last 2 years this report has had big price moves on the day of the report, so if you are on the wrong side in this battle you should know; they do not take prisoners on that day. I think soybeans will be choppy until the report, and my bias is lower from here because we are nearing resistance.
Buying the old crop soybeans selling the new crop, (buying the SK selling the SX (SK/SX)) I have liked but was asked if I would buy it here. It is $.32 now and the February high was $.33 1/2 so of course I would like to buy a $.10 pullback not here.
Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with.
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