Hedging Corn and Soybeans
Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.
November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 10/28/09
Oct 28, 2009
This report was sent to subscribers on 10/27/09 4:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 10/28/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
After the close on 10/28/09: My support was 9.59, just .00 1/4 from the actual low, and my pivot acted as resistance and was 9.78 3/4, just .00 1/4 from the actual high.
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November Soybeans Chart
"$10.00 is near term resistance, above that at $10.19 3/4 is next. First support is the gap at $9.64, bracket line just under that, $9.46 1/2 200 day moving average comes into play.
This is another example of the power of the 3rd time at the trend line being in this case a downtrend line, strong resistance. Selling against this line using a tight stop let's say a $.05 buy stop, rewards you over $.20 by the close, a very nice day trade. If this type of trade works only 1/2 the time, you are definitely the casino getting odds instead of the player betting this line will not hold first time at it.
November Soybeans for 10/28/09
Many reasons this year for the swings in price, aided by the late start to the growing season and a normal frost, when a later than normal frost was needed to optimize yield. Rain delays are credited for the support, as well as the weak $.
Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green and orange are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand.
In my daily numbers on Tuesday my resistance was $.06 1/2 from the actual high; my support was $.01 1/4 from the actual low.
Grains: Same thoughts as before, the worst news on harvest is in, grain rally has stifled demand, and crops look good. Any damage should hit soybeans before corn, and soybeans like to rally in November if you look at charts, which gives them the most support of row crops for now.
Gap at $9.64 is big for me and if November soybeans close below there, $9.30 is possible. I do not think we will break $9.64 before the report, and I think if bearish it will test $9.30. Then we will see if that is the bottom going forward. I did all right staying short corn, buying some beans near the close and now have long 8 beans and short 15 corn. Numbers were spot on. SELL rallies, but be careful extremely oversold corn and soybeans now. Almost dead market tonight, no volume pushed the market on air to get the sell stops below the day's low in beans.
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