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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA WASDE Report 5/11/10:

May 11, 2010



USDA WASDE Report 5/11/10:

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OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 99.1 million tons, up less than 1 percent from 2009/10.  Soybean production is projected at 3.3 billion bushels, down 49 million from the record crop produced in 2009 as increased planted and harvested area are more than offset by lower yields.  Harvested area is projected at a record 77.1 million acres based on an average harvested-to-planted ratio. Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 42.9 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from the 2009 record.  Soybean supplies are projected at 3.5 billion bushels, unchanged from 2009/10 as larger beginning stocks offset lower production.  Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are unchanged at 190 million bushels as increased exports and crush projections are offset by reduced residual.

Soybean crush for 2010/11 is projected to decline 5 percent.  Sharply lower U.S. soybean meal exports are only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use.  U.S. export prospects are reduced due to increased export competition from Argentina and India.  Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 3 percent as biodiesel production gains more than offset reduced food use.  Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 2.9 billion pounds, up 700 million from 2009/10.  A rebound in South American supplies from last year=s drought-reduced levels is projected to limit U.S. soybean exports to 1.35 billion bushels in 2010/11, down from a record 1.455 billion in 2009/10.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 365 million bushels, up 175 million from the projection for 2009/10.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel compared with $9.50 per bushel in 2009/10.  Soybean meal prices are forecast at $230 to $270 per short ton compared with $295 per ton for 2009/10.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 34 to 38 cents per pound compared with 36 cents for 2009/10.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 440 million tons, up 2.2 million from 2009/10. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 340.9 million tons, up 2 million.  Global soybean production is projected to decrease 3 percent to 250.1 million tons.  The Argentina crop is projected at 50 million tons, down 4 million from 2009/10 crop based on reduced harvested area and trend yields.  Soybean area is projected lower as producers are expected to increase grain and sunflower seed plantings.  The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 65 million tons, down 3 million from 2009/10.  A small increase in harvested area is more than offset by lower yields following record yields set for the 2009/10 crop.  China soybean production is projected at 15.2 million tons, up 0.7 million from 2009/10 due to higher area and yields.  Global production of high-oil content seeds (sunflower seed and rapeseed) is projected to increase 5 percent from 2009/10, mostly due to increased harvested area.  Despite only small gains in global oilseed production, 2010/11 oilseed supplies are up 4 percent as beginning stocks are 19 million tons higher than a year ago.  Most of the increase is for soybeans in South America. 

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 4.6 percent in 2010/11.  Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 8.4 percent in China, accounting for 44 percent of global protein consumption gains.  Global soybean exports are projected at 87.9 million tons, up 2.5 million from 2009/10.  China soybean imports are projected at 49 million tons, accounting for more than half of world soybean trade.  Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4.5 percent in 2010/11, led by increases for China and India.

WHEAT:  The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production.  Beginning stocks are up 45 percent from 2009/10 and the highest in a decade more than offsetting a forecast 8 percent reduction in this year’s crop.  Total production is projected at 2,043 million bushels, down 173 million from last year.  The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 4 percent, but higher yields in Oklahoma, Texas, and a number of the soft red winter wheat states partly offset an 8 percent decline in expected winter wheat harvested area.  Spring wheat production is also expected lower as a return to trend yields from last year’s record levels lowers production prospects.  Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 585 million bushels, down 16 percent from 2009/10, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and state yield trends for 1985-2008.  U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected at 3,103 million bushels, up 4 percent from the current year and the largest since 2000/01.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2010/11 is projected up 3 percent with higher expected domestic use and exports.  Food use is projected at 940 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2009/10 as flour extraction rates are expected to return to historical averages from their high levels during the past 2 years.  Feed and residual use is projected at 190 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the 2009/10 projection as the larger carryin, particularly for soft red winter wheat, raises feed use prospects.  Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the current year as large, early season supplies and lower prices improve U.S. competitiveness.  Despite higher expected use, U.S. ending stocks are projected at nearly 1 billion bushels and the highest since 1987/88.  The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel, compared with the 2009/10 projection of $4.90 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 2 percent higher with larger year-to-year beginning stocks more than offsetting lower expected production.  Global 2010/11 wheat production is projected at 672.2 million tons, down 1 percent from 2009/10 and the third largest production on record if realized.  Larger projected production in EU-27, South America, and the Middle East is more than offset by expected declines in FSU-12, North Africa, South Asia, China, Canada, and Australia. 

Global wheat trade is expected to rise slightly for 2010/11 with world exports up 2 percent from 2009/10 at 129.2 million tons.  Higher year-to-year exports for Argentina and EU-27 more than offset lower exports for Ukraine, Australia, and Canada.  Export prospects for Russia are unchanged for 2010/11 as larger Middle East crops and rising domestic wheat feeding limit export expansion for Russian wheat.  Global wheat consumption is projected up 2 percent for 2010/11 with larger global supplies supporting growth in demand.  World wheat feeding is projected 3 percent higher with much of the year-to-year increase from rising feeding in FSU-12.  Global stocks are projected at 198.1 million tons, up 4.7 million from 2009/10; however, China stocks are projected up 8.3 million tons leaving stocks in the rest of the world down from the current year projection.

 

COARSE GRAINS:  The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for larger supplies with higher beginning stocks and production; however, rising use is expected to limit the growth in ending stocks. Corn production for 2010/11 is projected at 13.4 billion bushels, up 260 million from 2009/10 as a 2.3-million-acre increase in intended plantings more than offsets a projected decline in yield from last year’s record.  Based on the rapid pace of 2010 planting as reported in Crop Progress, the 2010/11 yield is projected at 163.5 bushels per acre, 2.7 bushels above the 1990-09 trend.  Corn supplies are projected at a record 15.1 billion bushels, 325 million higher than in 2009/10. 

Total U.S. corn use for 2010/11 is projected up 2 percent from the current year with higher expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and exports more than offsetting a decline in projected feed and residual use.  FSI use is projected 4 percent higher with a 200-million-bushel increase in corn used for ethanol accounting for most of the increase.  Corn ethanol use, projected at 4.6 billion bushels, is supported by rising Federal biofuels mandates and strong blending incentives that continue to boost ethanol usage.  Exports are projected up 3 percent with larger supplies and lower prices, but rising foreign feed grain supplies, mostly corn, limit export growth in 2010/11.  Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected down slightly with a slow recovery in animal numbers and increased use of distiller’s grains.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected up 5 percent to 1.8 billion bushels.  The season-average farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel compared with the 2009/10 forecast of $3.50 to $3.70 per bushel.

Changes to the 2009/10 corn balance sheet include higher FSI use and exports, which are partly offset by lower expected feed and residual use and lower production with downward revisions to harvested area and yields for North Dakota and South Dakota.  FSI is revised back to 1997/98 to better reflect net exports of sweeteners and starch as indicated by U.S. Bureau of Census data.  These changes raise FSI slightly and lower feed and residual use offsetting amounts.  The largest changes are in the most recent years when foreign demand for U.S. corn sweeteners has been strongest.  Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is lowered 75 million bushels, in part, reflecting increased availability of distiller's grains with a 100-million-bushel increase in projected corn use for ethanol.  Exports are raised 50 million bushels based on recent strength in sales and shipments.  These changes combine with the 21-million-bushel reduction in 2009/10 production to lower ending stocks 161 million bushels. 

Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 1,129.8 million tons, up 2 percent from 2009/10.  Most of the 27.4-million-ton increase in coarse grains production results from higher projected foreign corn production, up 19.9 million tons from 2009/10.  Higher expected foreign corn area and rising yields combine with higher U.S. area to boost global corn production to a record 835.0 million tons, up 26.5 million from 2009/10.  Corn production is projected higher year-to-year for China, Mexico, India, Russia, EU-27, Ukraine, and Canada.  Corn production is expected to be lower in Brazil and South Africa.  World coarse grain trade is higher for 2010/11 mostly reflecting rising projected corn imports and exports.  Global corn consumption is projected to be record high at 827.9 million tons, up 19.0 million from 2009/10, with nearly three-quarters of the increase in foreign markets.  World corn ending stocks are projected at 154.2 million tons, up 7.2 million from 2009/10 and the highest since 2000/01.  With stocks for China projected up 6.9 million tons, other country changes year-to-year are mostly offsetting.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is down 3.3 percent from 2009/10.  Lower beginning stocks and imports more than offset higher production.  Higher beet sugar production reflects a return to trend yields, while cane sugar production is increased for Florida and Texas.  Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) reflect the minimum of U.S. commitments to import raw and refined sugar and projected shortfall.  The Secretary of Agriculture will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date.  Imports from Mexico are nearly unchanged.  Total use is unchanged.

Mexico=s 2010/11 sugar supply is up 1.7 percent with higher stocks and production more than offsetting lower imports.  Production is projected to increase, as yields rebound to trend levels.  Imports reflect mainly U.S. exports.  Domestic sugar consumption is down slightly, due to higher use of corn-based sweeteners, and exports are up slightly.  Ending stocks increase moderately.

For 2009/10 U.S. sugar, increased supplies nearly offset increased use, compared with a month earlier.  Imports are increased under the TRQ and due to expectations for increased high-duty imports.  Sugar deliveries are increased to reflect the recent strong pace to date.

 LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat production for 2011 is projected to be slightly higher than 2010 as increased pork and poultry production more than offset declines in beef production.  Beef production for 2011 declines on tighter supplies of cattle.  Declining cow inventories and calf crops over the past several years, coupled with expected lower imports of cattle during 2011 will result in a smaller pool of cattle available for slaughter.  Pork production for 2011 is expected to increase as improved returns encourage increased sows farrowing and carcass weights are heavier.  Both broiler and turkey production for 2011 are forecast higher as producers respond to improved returns.  Egg production is forecast higher as production gradually builds upon the measured expansion currently underway.

The total meat production forecast for 2010 is reduced from last month as lower red meat production more than offsets higher broiler and turkey production.  Forecast beef production is reduced as slightly higher cattle slaughter is offset by expected lighter cattle weights.  The pork production forecast is reduced as supplies of hogs for slaughter are tighter than expected.  Broiler production is raised as improved returns are expected to encourage increased hatchery activity.  The turkey production forecast for the first half of the year is raised based on the most recent slaughter data.

Despite an improved world economy, U.S. beef exports for 2011 are expected to be lower as U.S. production declines and more competitor beef becomes available.  Pork and broiler exports are expected to benefit from an improved global economic climate and increased U.S. production.  Beef imports are expected to be higher for 2011 as U.S. cow slaughter declines in response to lower cow inventories.  Pork imports are forecast higher with relatively strong U.S. pork demand.

The 2010 red meat export forecast is little changed from last month with fractionally higher beef exports reflecting the pace of trade to date.  Pork exports are unchanged.  Beef imports are forecast lower as competitor supplies of beef are tight and global beef demand is improving with the economic recovery.  Broiler exports are forecast lower than last month on weaker shipments to several markets.For 2011, cattle prices are forecast to rise as demand improves and production declines.  Hog prices are forecast lower due to increased production.  Broiler and egg prices are also forecast higher on demand strength carried over from 2010.  Turkey prices will be slightly lower in 2011.Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts for 2010 are raised from last month as demand improves and supplies are tight.  However, turkey and egg price forecasts are reduced.

COTTON:  The 2010/11 U.S. cotton projections include higher supplies offset by higher exports relative to last season, resulting in marginally lower ending stocks.  Production is projected at 16.7 million bales, which is based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings, combined with 7-percent abandonment and a yield of 815 pounds per harvested acre.  Projected abandonment is reduced from the 10-year average of 11 percent due to unusually favorable soil moisture in Texas.  Domestic mill use is projected at 3.3 million bales, a marginal reduction from 2009/10.  Exports are projected to rise 1.5 million bales from 2009/10 to 13.5 million, as foreign demand is expected to outpace supply.  Ending stocks are projected at 3.0 million bales, the lowest since 1995/96.  The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 60 to 74 cents per pound.

World cotton production is projected to rise nearly 11 million bales in 2010/11, but supplies will increase less than 1 percent from last season owing to sharply lower beginning stocks.  Production is expected to rise in nearly all cotton-producing countries, with the United States, India, Brazil, and Pakistan accounting for about 70 percent of the increase.  World consumption is projected to rise 2.8 percent, supported by economic recovery while at the same time constrained by limited supplies.  An increase in China’s imports to 11.5 million bales is boosting world trade.  With a slight increase in production and declining stocks, China will need to rely on imports to sustain a projected 3 percent increase in consumption.  World ending stocks are projected to decline 2.6 million bales to 50.1 million.  The stocks-to-consumption ratio of 42 percent is the lowest since 1994/95.

Revisions to the 2009/10 balance sheets show higher beginning stocks, higher production, and lower consumption, resulting in an increase of 1.8 million bales in world ending stocks.  China accounts for most of the increase, due to higher production and imports.  China’s production is raised 1.0 million bales based on reported higher production for Xinjiang; imports are raised 500,000 bales reflecting activity to date.  Consumption is reduced for Pakistan, Turkey, and the United States, but is raised for India and Vietnam.  U.S. 2009/10 production is raised 38,000 bales consistent with NASS’s final production estimate.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered 1 cent on the upper end of the range. 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

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                     Howard Tyllas            

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Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any

 

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