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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

January Soybean & March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/31/10

Jan 03, 2011

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This report was sent to subscribers on 12/29/10 1:10 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/31/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

How did you do in 2010? Do not be penny wise and dollar follish. Try my service and see why people have been subscribing for years now.

Results for 12/31/10:

My soybean resistance was .09 ¼ from the actual low, and my support was .03 from the actual high.

My corn resistance was .03 ½ from the actual low, and my support was .00 ¾ from the actual high.

My nat gas resistance was .007 the actual low and my support was .024 from the actual high.

My crude oil resistance was .18 the actual low, and my support was .03 from the actual high.

My bonds resistance was 5 from the actual low, and my support was 1 from the actual high.

 My gold resistance was 6.60 the actual low and my support was 1.70 from the actual high.

My S&P resistance was 2.50 from the actual low and my support was .50 from the actual high.

January Soybeans

After the close recap on 12/31/10: My resistance was 13.85 1/4, .09 1/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 13.63 1/2, .03 from the actual low.

March Corn 

After the close recap on 12/31/10: My resistance was 6.26 1/2, .03 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 6.16 1/2, .00 3/4 from the actual low.

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13.85 ¼ XX              

13.77 ½               

--------------13.63 ½           Pivot

13.49 ½  

13.39 ¼

      Use the same numbers as used on 12/30/10

Trend                   

5 day chart...       Up       from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   ....  Up                     

Weekly chart ... Up                

Monthly chart    Up        $10.63 ½ is the 200 DMA

ATR 22 ½                        Overbought 81%  

Bean 12 31 10

I continue to say "Highest close on the nearby (spot month) chart since July 2008. Bracket line is pivotal at $13.63, weekly and daily numbers resists". This week's low is support. New steep uptrend line was broken and that bodes well for more downward correction, unless stays above $13.63 bracket line.          

January Soybeans for 12/31/10 I said "Bulls remain in control as long as the uptrend line holds which is near $12.85 this week". 

In my daily soybean numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .04 from the actual low.

  March Corn

 

6.26 ½ XX                            

------------- 6.16 ½            Pivot

6.06 ½                               

6.00

      

Trend          

5 day chart........       Up from last week same day                                                                                                                                                   

Daily chart   ......     Up                       

Weekly chart .......  Up             

Monthly chart ....    Up       4.66 ¼ is the 200 DMA

ATR 11 ½                              Overbought 74%    

Corn 12 31 10

I continue to say "Highest close on the nearby (spot month) chart since July 2008. The top uptrend line acts as a pivot now. These lines that were started months ago are not random as you can see for yourself". 

March Corn chart comments for 12/31/10 New steep uptrend line was broken and that bodes well for more downward correction, unless stays above $6.20 top channel line.          

In my daily corn numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .00 ¾ from the actual high, and my support was the EXACT actual low.    

12/31/10:

Grains: Spot on numbers! Corn market gave you more than 15 minutes to sell and risk $.04 or less on the trade idea. If you wanted to buy, the market kept you out of trouble once again, and with the risk of buying a few cents above the pivot if the pivot did not hold, the numbers and the market provided a buy near the exact low of the day saving you maybe $.10. The pivot provided a perfect sell in the night and within $.02 in the day session for those who wanted to go short (including hedging). This is what the numbers have always done for me as a trader. If I wanted to be a buyer, since the market was under the pivot I would have sold a few contracts, but if the market was above the pivot I would have bought 20. I would have taken what I could using a 5 minute bar chart to supplement my daily numbers to get a "buy stop" to protect the profits I had. No matter what, if the market was near my support number (which was the exact low for the day), I would have taken profit on the few, and would have bought the "many". As a day trader, I would have sold all that I had bought in the last 5 minutes of trade to end the day for a small profit. Tomorrow is a new day, with new numbers, and I assume no risk overnight.

My numbers are the main reason I have stayed in this game for so long, and they are what I feel gives me a great advantage. The other reasons are my mindset of being a casino getting the odds instead of a player trying to beat the odds, and a solid risk reward based solely on my numbers holding or not. The ability to EXECUTE my plan is indeed the bottom line, because you can know everything, but if you cannot utilize it, it is worthless. With a mind that is high in abstract reasoning, options was an easy vehicle for me to use, and got me past where I wanted to go. Options are a big advantage to futures, but without knowledge they are most likely to end in disaster. The knowledge it takes is not at all hard to learn for what a speculator or producer needs to learn to empower them, and I am more than willing to teach what applies to you. Have a question, email me and I will answer, and also use it in my daily numbers service. With all the subscribers and all the possible questions, I only get a handful per year. I have spent much time with my producers, but they have it down for the most part, and have questions at times when the market has really moved and "morphing" is in their picture. With commission generated brokers and the like, I think it will be harder to find the information best suited for what you want to do, due to lack of their knowledge, lack of time needed to teach you at your own speed, and the possible commissions driven advice that could be best for them, and not for you. Remember, they only need a home study course, and a month or two to study, and they are licensed as a series 3 broker and ready to assist you in answering all your questions, and providing their opinion and knowledge when you call upon them. There is something to knowledge, wisdom, and experience, but being a foot soldier in the trenches is a world apart from reading about it in a book.

I drew the steep uptrend lines which indicate to me more risk to the downside. Thin holiday trade does not take much to move a market, but what happens after Friday, is anyone's guess except if you know the big fund managers, and they will share with you that information. If they did share it with you, that would be called "front running" and is highly unethical as it is illegal. My guess is that they will sell corn, and maybe buy soybeans. I am bullish for next year both corn and soybeans, but it is prudent to lock in profits by protecting the downside, and allow for more upside.

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

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