Jul 31, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

January Soybean Daily Numbers & Trade ideas for 12-10-10

Dec 12, 2010

top1

This report was sent to subscribers on 12/9/10 2:15 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/10/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close recap on 12/10/10: My resistance was 12.88 1/2, .01 1/2 from the actual high,

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers  After you learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order.

 

12.88 ½                                  Resistance

--------------12.77 ½              Pivot

12.66 ½ XX                            Support

12.40 ¼                                  Near Steep Uptrend Line    

                        

Trend               

5 day chart...       Down       from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   ....  Up                     

Weekly chart ... Up                

Monthly chart    Up        $10.38 is the 200 DMA

ATR 28 ½                        Balanced 57%  

 

Bean 12 10 10

I continue to say "Bracket line at $12.91 is resistance now, and $12.41 bracket line is support, and then the key support is the uptrend line at $11.70. High of November is the only resistance above $13.07".         

January Soybeans for 12/10/10:

Bulls remain in control as long as the new uptrend line holds which is near $12.38 this week. 

In my daily soybean numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .01 ½ from the actual high; my support was .01 ½ from the actual low.   

I continue to say "Bracket line at $12.91 is resistance now, and $12.41 bracket line is support, and then the key support is the uptrend line at $11.70. High of November is the only resistance above $13.07".         

January Soybeans for 12/10/10:

Bulls remain in control as long as the new uptrend line holds which is near $12.38 this week. 

In my daily soybean numbers on Thursday 12/9/10; my pivot acted as resistance and was .01 ½ from the actual high; my support was .01 ½ from the actual low.   

12/10/10:

Grains: Spot on numbers. Any comment of fundamentals would be useless for tomorrow. From the fundamental point of view it looks like the report would be bullish, but as you witnessed on the last report that was very bullish for soybeans and friendly for corn, the market fell out of bed in a matter of a few days afterward. That is why I say "I do not care what the report says; I care how the market reacts to it". And when the market moves greatly for whatever reason and comes to a chart support or resistance, I look at that as an opportunity to take advantage of it by risking little if the number does not hold, and can reap a very nice profit when it does; it is as simple as that for me. The report I am trying to say is an excuse to move the market based upon forecasts and estimates and guesstimates at the time of the report, but in no way is going to be factual until after the fact. This year especially is an exceptional year of dueling reports adding and subtracting hundreds of millions of bushels back and forth. Yes the numbers are important but they point to direction not price or value, but charts do that for me. The January Final report is the most factual of them all, and all eyes will be on that one.

I will be sending my comments and report at 9am. You read my chart comments and know what my parameters are, and they hold true no matter what the report says, even if it opens limit up or down.

12/9/10:    

Grains: Spot on numbers. New data implies the ethanol grind will be 5.3 billion bushels which is well above the 4.8 the USDA projected last month. This I have talked about for months that the USDA at some time will need to raise the grind numbers and lower the carryout by the same amount. Take another 200 to 500 million bushels off of supply and the carryout would be very bullish and the market would rally to ration demand. Guesstimates average the soybean carryout down to 160, and the numbers mostly depend on exports. SA rainfall and final production is another piece of the puzzle, and any trouble there in my mind will drive us to test the all time high. Battle for acreage should cause soybeans to be well supported.

All I care about is price and time. Corn market could not get below the trend line in the night session which is supportive and in open outcry when the ethanol numbers were looked at, these markets turned from a sharply lower overnight trade to close strongly higher. I look at it as the market could not get below supports and corn trend line so short covering and fresh buying ensued.

Market can do anything today adjusting for the report on Friday which is usually a non event. I think it will be bullish for soybeans. And maybe corn too.

I want to risk the same as before, $.04 in corn and $.07 in soybeans on any trade idea using stop to protect.

12/8/10:

Grains: Spot on numbers! I really do not care what caused the grain markets to go almost exactly to my resistance numbers, since I had no bias and at my resistance numbers was clearly a sell signal. $.04 and $.07 risk returned an excellent profit since my numbers were spot on. New subscribers who do not understand how you can risk so little if wrong, unlike like most who risk an arm to make a leg. It is great numbers that allow my risk reward to work, and makes me the casino getting the odds instead of a player giving the odds and trying to beat the odds against them. Remember, when you trade commodities, open a store, buy stocks, real estate, or even walking across a busy street, there are odds and risks always present in the pursuit of profitable gains. I call this pure gambling, and unless you are a good gambler, your chances are almost nil. I had a call from a speculator who has held his own the first year being down only a little, and he asked me if it is true that only 10% of commodity traders make money, and I said no, I think it is more like 1% if that, at least that is what I have seen for 35 years now. I am even talking about back in the day when there was an average of 35 new members a month that put on a trading badge and thought they can do this for a living, seeing as some were highly successful in what they were doing before becoming a floor trader. They did well if they could last 6 months, maybe one went longer, and maybe 12 went more than a year, but basically out of the 10,000+ I seen in my day, not many made it for any length of time. I see the same people on the floor today that made it before I bought my seat in 1976, and the same people that started with me or not long after, and of course a huge new membership that I will not be able to see them appear in the headlights of a Mack truck and stand there and watch the truck hit them leaving the bulldog imprinted on their faces. "Stuck stay stuck", and a trader who wants to stay alive to trade another day should have a solid risk management plan and an approach that works, and when it does not work anymore, trade small until they figure out what does work for them now. The worst thing to do is have a fundamental approach that does not incorporate a risk management when wrong.

The reason I say this is to stress that staying in a market and be random in your entry and or exit, is truly a one way ticket to not being able to trade due to losses. My strategy is simple, use my charts for long term support and resistances, and derive daily numbers as to what the probable high to low will be in that given day. This is my biggest advantage over all others I have seen, my numbers are the best I have ever seen in my opinion. Old subscribers, who were skeptical at first, are now confident that they truly are highly accurate. Again in my opinion these are the best numbers second to no other. Confidence, that is what it takes to execute your trade ideas, and when you have numbers this good it can be done with a minimum risk. The market and its fundamentals do not prove me wrong, the inability for my number to hold proves me wrong, and I do not need to watch grains go $.10 or $.20 against me to prove me wrong. Not losing money is the exact same thing as making money. Have a plan and approach that works for you, and take whatever you want from what I do that will improve what you are doing.

It sounds crazy to tell my subscribers who have made this service very lucrative to think twice about trading and the potential for losses because almost all do in time, but my service is a reflection of myself and I will not deceive anyone even if it costs me money. I could not sleep at night, unlike some "commission house brokers" I have talked  to who basically treat people like a piece of meat, and I ask how they can sleep at night knowing you only care about generating money instead of doing what is right, they all say they sleep knowing they made the money. Their justification is the client like almost everyone they ever had, will lose money to the market anyway, so why not get their share.

I believe only if you are disciplined, unemotional, and can execute a solid plan, can you be successful in time. I have had people who like on the roll up put program stopped rolling up at some point thinking the market will continue to go up and the puts were a waste of money, and then reality set in when soybeans broke $1.70+ in 3 days, and corn at one point giving away $.95. The casino knows that they can get beat in the short run, but in the long run their plan which has odds in their favor will win out, I think the same in trading, when you are getting odds, and risking little on each trade idea going after a good reward.

Main reasons I spent this much time tonight for both new and old subscribers, is to remind you not to slip into any bad habits that your journal has shown you had in the past, or still are working on. I also realize there are many traders who lose money every year, but it is only a percentage of their income (and their wife or husband has no problem losing that dollar amount), and for them it is no different than what they would have gambled and lost in Las Vegas anyway. They enjoy the gamble and thrill that goes with it, and they like the gamble of this game rather than the ones offered in Vegas. I have no problem with that, and I think you have a better chance in commodities trading, and improve greatly after you have learned what works for you and what does not. The more knowledge you have, the better your chances to succeed. But even if I give you the high and low of the day which for me is my greatest input to when and how I take a trade, it is you who executed your trade and you should take credit for success or failure.

Back to my thoughts about the market. I read the average trade guesses have already taken 21 MB down from 827 to 806 for the 2010/11 corn carryover, and soybeans lowered to 160 from 185. These estimates are lower than what I thought, and the corn market certainly is looking the worst on the chart. If this is already priced in, the bulls should need more to take them higher. Soybeans are still the grain to explode to the upside if the numbers come in well below expectations, but corn will remain the weak sister on the charts until something changes. It looks more than ever to me that you have seen the high in corn before the January report.

Since there are only day to day fundamentals at work right now, I have only said the fundamentals that have meaning to me, and spare the "chatter" that comes with someone whose job as a market reporter is to write "the news". That is why I decided it was time to write what I did, because those thoughts about having a plan that has strict risk management that you should reinforce throughout your career, until you become a machine like me, and follows it without effort or second guesses. Yes, I am always an observer, and when something is not right, I work to correct it or stay away until I do, but my approach has not changed because it is solid for me since my start.

I remain in day trader mode, and revive my call to sell resistance just seen and that I have outlined in my parameters. Numbers have been spot on so I want to trade without bias, even though the market looks like it has inhaled enough (went up) and now it is in it's exhale mode (going down). I want to risk the same as before, $.04 in corn and $.07 in soybeans on any trade idea using stop to protect.

I could have gone into more detail, but 1 ½ hours and 1500 words is about 500 more words than I want to write when the fundamentals are not really in play, or new. I am going to the beach across the street from my hotel in Thailand now, and enjoy a couple of hours of vacation time after I send this, where it is 85 with a nice breeze. I am compelled to write like I was on your end, and that I would want any information deemed worthy for comment. The lack of fresh real news that can affect the market was almost nil today, and so I took the opportunity to cover these thoughts.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 8 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

  

 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions