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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

May Soybeans daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/3/11

May 04, 2011

This report was sent to subscribers on 5/2/11 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/3/11. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

May Soybeans

After the close recap on 5/3/11: My pivot acted as resistance and was 13.93 1/2, .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 13.56, just .02 from the actual low.

Results for 5/3/11:

My soybean resistance was $.01 ¼ from the actual high, and my support was .02 from the actual low.

My corn resistance was $.00 ¼ from the actual high, and my support was .00 ½ from the actual low.

My Nat gas resistance was .013 from the actual high, and my support was .047 from the actual low.

My crude oil resistance was .01 from the actual high, and my support was .40 from the actual low.

My T Bond resistance was 1 from the actual high, and my support was 2 from the actual low.

My gold resistance was $2.90 from the actual high, and my support was $0.90 from the actual low.

My S&P resistance was 1.50 from the actual high, and my support was 1.00 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 5/4/11 have already been sent to subscribers at 5:00 pm on 5/3/11.

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May Soybeans

14.32
14.06 ½
--------------13.93 ½ Pivot
13.80 ½
13.56 Bracket Line

 

Use the same numbers as used on 5/2/11
Trend
5 day chart... Up from last week same day
Daily chart .... Sideways
Weekly chart ... Up
Monthly chart Up $12.54 is the 200 DMA
ATR 31 Overbought 85%

soybeans 5 3 11

For 5/3/11: Uptrend line (blue) is pivotal, and then the lower downtrend line now acts as support at the bracket line. Notice how the uptrend lines acted as perfect support and resistance on Thursday and Friday, this is not coincidence.

In my daily soybean numbers on Monday; my resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low.

5/3/11:

Grains: With the crop progress report showing only 13% planted, less than I even thought, this should bode well for the old crop more than the new crop because early planted, early harvested corn would have relieved a tight supply in the current year. It is also helpful to new crop corn because early planted usually brings better yields. This is the slowest pace since 1995. Next week's 5 year average is 62%.

Exact support number in soybeans and spot on resistance too. Corn numbers were spot on. With tonight's gap higher opening in both old and new crop corn, this forms a parameter for me in the near term between the gap left above at $7.76, and the gap left from Monday's close which was $7.30 ¾, making $7.53 ½ the middle or "pivot". With 2 out of the last 3 days having extreme down days, I do not look for the upside to come back all at once today. If the gap from Monday holds today, we probably will trade between the gaps until more rain comes or not to get outside the gaps. Western Corn belt is rolling now, Eastern Corn belt needs to dry out. May corn chart is running out of steam and looks to be dragging down the new crop.

New crop chart still looks good and wants to test that double top at $6.84 once again to make sure the sellers are still there, if not we should see the higher levels unfold. It might take more rain to cause that to happen. As long as the new crop corn and soybeans stay firm and above chart supports, there is no need to buy more protection, wanting to buy it when cheaper.

Charts are almost never confusing to me, and when they are I just stand aside that market for a day or a week until more information (more daily bars) are posted. The fundamentals are unknown and provide little to help me, except that the uncertainty of the weather until pollination is underway are always in favor of the bulls at this time.

Make sure you write in your journal what you think, and now is the time as always to execute your plan. No matter if we are $1 higher or lower next month, NEVER say you "knew" that was going to happen without profiting from it. Because if you did not profit, that means you are NOT doing what YOU thought, and if you do not have a plan and do not execute it, "knowing" what the market would do means nothing. If you cannot make money and you "knew" what the market was going to do, you do not have to imagine what happens when you are wrong the market, you lose more than what you were going to make if your trade idea worked.

I want to trade the numbers without bias today and risk $.05 in corn and $.08 in soybeans using a stop to protect any trade idea

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The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

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May Your Next Trade Be The Best


Howard Tyllas

 

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

 

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

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