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The Lean Hog Perspective

RSS By: Jeremy Knutson

This lean hog and feed commentary contains thoughts from Jeremy Knutson, a commodity broker with Hurley & Associates.

Hog & Corn Comments - 03/17/10 Hogs mixed but feed grains make a move

Mar 17, 2010

Hog & Corn Comments – 03/17/10 Hogs mixed but feed grains make a move

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THERE WILL BE NO COMMENTS THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

CORN – May ‘10 Electronic
Open – $3.68, High – $3.74 1/4, Low – $3.65 1/2, Close – $3.74 Up $.07 1/4
Thoughts – Long Term (into June ‘10) – Sideways/Lower

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May ‘10: The market didn't act like I thought it would today which tells me something may be happening in the traders minds to turn the market friendly for a short period.  I'm still a long-term bear in corn but for now we may have done enough to the downside considering planting is just around the corner.  Not much to add today that we didn't cover in yesterday's post but I will stress again that $3.59 is a key level of support in May '10 corn and if we close below this number for two consecutive weeks we could see another leg lower.  It doesn't look like that will happen this week.

Profits are still offered by the hog, corn and meal markets so if your profits look good you may want to think about locking those profits in or at minimum using an option strategy to limit risk.  Things feel all warm and fuzzy right now because the market is where it is but remember how fast it can be taken away!

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow and then fade as the session progresses.  

May ‘10 Corn – Support/Resistance for 03-18-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.88 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.80
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.77
Today’s close: $3.74
(
S1) Support 1: $3.71 1/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.68 1/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.62 1/2
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MEAL – May ‘10 Electronic
Open – $261.50, High – $267.70, Low – $260.30, Close – $267.40 Up $5.90
Thoughts – Long Term (i
nto June ‘10) – Sideways

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May ‘10 meal: Meal continued to move higher today and still respecting the $254.00 support level in the May '10 contract.  If we continue to hold above this level we could see further improvement and optimism in the meal market over the coming weeks.

If you are thinking about locking in meal, now may be a good time to lock in what you will need through the planting season.  I can't stress enough how fast profits go away when we least expect it so be business minded when making your decisions.  I am expecting meal to continue to firm in the weeks ahead but I don't believe we are on a run away train either.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

May ‘10 Meal – Support/Resistance for 03-18-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $279.9
(R2) Resistance 2: $272.50
(R1) Resistance 1: $270.00
Today’s close: $267.40
(S1) Support 1: $265.10
(S2) Support 2: $262.60
(S3) Support 3: $257.70

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HOGS – Apr ‘10 GLOBEX
Open – $71.85, High – $72.25, Low – $71.50, Close – $71.60 Down $.15
Thoughts – Long Term
(into April) – Neutral/Lower

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Hog margins continue to show some profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

Apr‘10 hogs: Hogs traded both sides of unchanged today in the April contract but the deferred months held in there relatively well.  We ended the day $.15 lower in April '10 which refuses to show the market looking for a bottom.  I was looking for buy stops in the market today at $72.35 but we only got as high as $72.30 and there were no fireworks at that level.  Cash hogs remain weak along with the product showing more signs of weakness as well therefore it is hard to think the April '10 contract has major upside left in it at this point.

As I've said for the past couple days now, if you have profits you may want to strongly consider protecting them with incremental sales or option strategies or something because nobody knows what the future will bring but if profits are here today then look to protect them.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early high tomorrow.

Apr ‘10 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 03-18-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.275
(R2) Resistance 2: $72.50
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.05
Today’s close: $71.60
(S1) Support 1: $71.30
(S2) Support 2: $71.00
(S3) Support 3: $70.30

 

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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.


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