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U.S. Farm Report Mailbag

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Why all the "Doom & Gloom"???

Apr 11, 2011

Some of Saturday’s April 9th U.S. Farm Report Statements (during the market round-tables)... 

"Too wet, too cold."  "Snow piles all over." "Water standing in fields." I had to go outside to make sure The Sky was not Falling. Last time I checked it’s the middle of April. Mother Nature will come around as she always does. With 55 plus years of growing seasons under my belt, the crop (sometimes changed) always got in and always got harvested...some earlier than others and some better than others. Take advantage of the extra time...sleep in, have a late breakfast, play with the grandkids, hit the honey do list, more time with the misses.

Bernard Wotachek - Denmark, WI

***Editor's Note:  Below is John's response to Bernard's feedback...
 
Thanks for the reminder that we always have these worries, but you left some other factors out.
 
1. Through virtually all of those 55 crops there was a considerable surplus that gave us a fallback cushion.
2. Compare prices then with the $7.82 corn I sold last week. The economic stakes are much higher.
3. We have started factoring in routinely large crops. Even a small decline in production which would have gone unnoticed before will hurt some user.
4. Talk to the protein industry about their future. As I have been saying all winter, a casual attitude about growing corn this year is not enough.
5. Your POV is from the grower perspective. It's all good price news for us. Corn users are facing a completely different future, one version of which has the sky actually falling on them (~150 bpa crop, for example)
 
Perhaps we should temper our combined statements (I will keep your words in mind), but I have no control over the panelists. Consider briefly what happens if they are right, no matter how improbable. We are making history here, I believe - not just spending another day at the office.
Thanks for writing.
John
 
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