The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Brazil Raises Corn, Bean Forecast
Jan 08, 2014
Corn maintained its recent contract low at $4.15 overnight with a 2-cent decline while beans managed an 8-cent advance. Wheat posted a modest 1-cent gain in the night trade.
Monsanto said yesterday they expect Q1-2014 corn seed and trait sales to be off 7% to $1.05 billion while soybean sales are expected higher by 16% to $267 million in quarter. Monsanto President Brett Begemann said that U.S. farmers are ordering seeds for spring planting against a "lower expected planted acreage base" for corn. "We see some shifting in acres between crops," he said. On Wednesday, the EIA ethanol report showed weekly production up 6,000 BPD TO 919,000 BPD, while stock holdings of ethanol were up 556,000 BBLS to 16.14 MLN BBLS, their highest level since September. Ethanol margins continue to hold, up sharply higher from last year in spite of recent erosions in DDG prices.
In Argentina, up to 50 millimeters of rain soaked corn and soy fields in the northern part of Argentina's farm belt refreshing areas hit by an unusually hot, dry December. Scattered showers and cooler weather will improve conditions in the breadbasket province of Buenos Aires over the rest of the week as Isolated storms will provide varying amounts of rain on Thursday. More importantly, temperatures are falling, which helps lower the rate of ground water evaporation. Overnight, Brazil’s CONAB projected the country’s corn crop at 78.97 MMT, up from 78.78 MMT projected in December, while the soybean crop is pegged at 90.33 MMT versus 90.03 MMT projected in December.
US wheat continues to be pressured by large global supplies. Prices currently sit at around 2 year lows, with only a modest lift given in the wake of the severe cold snap in the US which might crimp production from possible winter kill. The EU saw their two week total exports of soft wheat hit 988,000 MT, bringing the annual total to 14.4 MMT.