The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Corn in Positive Territory to Start the Week
Feb 03, 2014
Grains were quiet to start the new week as overnight trade was mostly listless. Corn advanced 2 cents a bushel, while front-month March beans was down 1 cent. Wheat posted a fractional increase in the night session.
Farmers in Brazil's top-soybean-producing state Mato Grosso are reporting soy harvest yields well above what they had expected, which if the trend continues, could result in a record crop and make Brazil the world's top producer of the oilseed, based on official forecasts. Fields like Seibeneichler's throughout Mato Grosso are producing up to 70 60-kilogram bags per hectare, as much as a third higher than a January estimate for average yields in the state by Agroconsult, which expects a record 91.6 MMT crop from Brazil.
Winds and snow are hindering grain supply from southern Russia to Novorossiisk on the Black Sea, the port's operator and traders said on Friday, slowing the country's return to the global wheat market. Russia, one of the world's top five wheat exporters to regions including North Africa and the Middle East, became competitive again on international markets in January, after a three-month hiatus, because the ruble has now weakened along with emerging market currencies.
In corn, US export business has likely benefited from the problems in Ukraine getting corn to export. On Friday, USDA announced another sale of US old-crop corn to Spain for 110,000 MT. On Friday, CIF corn basis bids were mostly steady at the Gulf. Spot barge freight is steady with a weak tone as demand softened after shippers fulfilled their January loading needs. Navigation on the Illinois River remains a major challenge with heavy ice buildup limiting tows to 6 or 8 barges. Peoria Lake remains one-way traffic only. Problems on the Illinois are backing up the upriver traffic down towards St Louis.