The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Export Sales Mixed
Jun 19, 2014
The grain markets are moving higher this morning with corn up 2 ¾ cents, wheat up 6 cents and soybeans trading up 2 ¾ cents.
Ethanol production was released yesterday and showed the largest weekly production on record. Ethanol crush margins remain very strong historically, despite Chinese DDG cancellations pressuring the domestic DDG market. Ethanol production should remain a supportive story for corn moving through the summer months.
Areas of South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois are under flash flood warnings this morning following heavy rain. Social media has been filled with photos of flooded corn/soybean stands, bringing some support into the market. We wouldn’t expect this week’s flooding to have major impacts on harvested acreage.
Weekly export sales showed slightly weaker wheat and corn bookings but continued to show strength for soybeans. Wheat sales came in at 372,600 MT for 14/15 delivery which was just about the low side of trade expectations this week. Corn booked only 109,000 MT of 13/14 which was well shy of expectations that ranged from 300,000 to 500,000 MT and Soybeans posted another strong week of export sales booking 97,900 MT for old crop. Soybeans continue to book export sales late in the marketing season and we expect even better sales in next weeks report triggered by the price declines in the last couple weeks. Yesterday, a single day sale of 140,000 MT was reported by FAS showing there is demand to meet the falling prices. According to our models soybeans is now 101 million bushels ahead of pace to meet the USDA expectations.