The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Markets Take Lower Turn Overnight
Jan 06, 2014
Grains turned lower overnight with soybeans leading the complex on a 6-cent decline. Corn and wheat followed with 1 and 3- cent losses, respectively.
In corn, basis levels were firming on Monday at some key buyers as slow farmer movement during the cold snap has helped tighten pipeline supplies. The Illinois River remains open to navigation despite severely cold weather. Traffic is restricted to one-way only for about 10 miles on Peoria Lake due to ice buildup and barge tow widths are limited to 105 feet through the river's locks, versus 110 feet normally, due to ice, according to the Army Corps and the Coast Guard. Otherwise, the barge industry is simply trying to keep a channel open on the Illinois by keeping a steady flow of boats moving through. Estimates ahead of Friday’s USDA reports show analysts look for 14.07 BB of production versus 13.99 previously and ending stocks of 1,861 MB as compared to 1,792 MB last month.
In soybeans, basis levels were up at a few key crushing facilities but lower soymeal prices brought on by the slide in DDG prices has kept processor bean bids in check. Argentina's recently planted corn and soy crops is expected to be hurt by a fresh heat wave in the days ahead until rains hit the Pampas farm belt late in the week, a local meteorologist said on Monday. The Pampas agricultural belt was hit by weeks of hot, dry weather in December that raised concerns about yields before Jan. 1 rains snapped the heat wave. Analysts look for Friday’s USDA reports to show 3.279 BB of US production as compared to 3.258 BB and 149 MB of ending stocks versus 150 MB last month
For wheat, cold temps did little to lift prices as the brunt of the cold snap is in the Eastern Cornbelt. Temperatures in the Plains have been less extreme and the presence of relative widespread snow cover should help mitigate damage. Overnight, Bangladesh issued a new tender to buy 50,000 MT of wheat after it received no offers in a previous tender on the same quantity.