The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Soybean Harvest Kicks Off in TX and MO
Aug 26, 2014
The grains are slightly lower to unchanged this morning with corn down ½ of a cent, soybeans down 4 ¼ and wheat down ¼ a cent this morning. On Monday Egypt’s GASC announced a tender to buy an unspecified amount of soft wheat or milling wheat for delivery Sept 21 to 30. Traders are looking for Russia, Ukraine and Romanian wheat are likely to win the tender since Black Sea wheat is nearly $4 a metric ton more competitive than Chicago Wheat. GASC tender results are expected later today.
Crop progress was released on Monday at 2 PM CST and showed that corn rated good-to-excellent has improved by 1% while soybeans have fallen 1% over the last week. Spring wheat conditions have also declined, falling to 66% good-to-excellent from 68% a week ago. Soybean harvest is now starting in the south with Missouri 2% complete and 8% complete in Texas. Early harvested soybeans have a strong cash market to sell into, with the spread between Sep/Nov at 79 ¾ cents this morning. The spread has been wildly volatile in the last week trading as high as 151 yesterday morning before seeing the gains evaporate by the end of the day. The start of southern soybean harvest will be putting pressure the old crop, new crop spread and has already started to affect Gulf bids which moved 10-17 cents lower yesterday.
This week’s weather is showing a wet pattern over the next 10 days with the majority of the grain belt receiving meaningful precipitation. The precipitation should cover the remaining dry spots which had developed over most of July and had been cause for concern for late planted soybean development. Currently, there are no early frost threats over the next 30 days.
On Friday, Pro Farmer announced the aggregate U.S corn yield estimate at 169.3 bushels per acre which is 1.9 bushels per acre higher than the August USDA forecast and .9 bushels higher than the latest Planalytics yield forecast.