The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Trade Eyes WASDE Report on Wednesday
Jun 09, 2014
This morning July corn is trading down 5 ½ cents, soybeans down 2 ½ cents and wheat is down 1 ¼ cents.
The weather outlook shows more rain this week for the HRW regions which should receive more precipitation today and again on Thursday. Over the weekend there were broad rains throughout the HRW regions but not quite as hard as anticipated. For a crop that has experienced relative dryness this year, heavy rains this late in the season could negatively affect the quality of the wheat. More precipitation now could rob the grain of higher protein levels and cause higher amounts of sprouting.
"Position evening" could be a theme for the start of this week, with the Goldman Sachs commodity fund roll in progress and the June USDA report scheduled for release on Wednesday. In the report traders expect relatively few changes to the 2013/14 balance sheet. On average traders expect corn ending stocks up 18 million bushels, soybean ending stocks off 3 million, and wheat up 7 million. The major report for the old crop will be June 30th when quarterly grain stocks are released.
Ending stocks for the 2014/15 crop are expected to be lowered 17 million bushels for corn, off 11 million bushels for soybeans, and up 7 million bushels for wheat. If new crop corn and soybean futures can get a bounce in Wednesdays report, it may be a good selling opportunity for new crop bushels as we enter the summer months. Current crop conditions are looking very good across and the long-range forecast which sees a 70% chance for an El Nino pattern developing this summer.