The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Weaker Beans Overnight
Dec 17, 2013
On Monday, corn inspections were below trade expectations at 25.1 MB. But 34%, or 8.6 MB, were headed to China despite Chinese quarantine officials rejecting several cargoes of U.S. corn that tested positive for an unapproved GMO corn variety since mid November. Also hindering the corn market is a weaker export basis as river water levels fall. At St. Louis, water gauge levels were at a minus 2.27 feet on Monday afternoon. It was forecast to remain around minus 2.1 feet for the next week then recede to a minus 4.1 feet a week later, according to the National Weather Service. Several barges hit ground in the St. Louis area over the weekend due to the low water, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
For soybean’s, Monday’s NOPA crush for November came in below expectations at 160.1 MB, but was still the largest in nearly 4 years. Although it fell 1 MB short of expectations, soymeal exports bested expectations and helped put a bid under the soy complex on Monday. Also, USDA reported another week of big soybean export inspections - 62.5 MB for the week ending Dec 12.
In wheat, Egypt’s GASC announced a snap tender to buy wheat for late January delivery, as prices continue to sink lower. It is unlikely that US concerns will win the business with much of the export capacity into January devoted to corn and bean exports. Weekly export inspections were reasonably strong at 17.5 MB. Year to date exports for wheat are still running over a 100 MB ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s export forecast of 1,100 MB.